Key Economic Indicators – October 19, 2015

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for September were up 0.1% from the previous month, and were up 2.4% from September 2014.  Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales were down 0.3% from the previous month, but were up 0.8% from a year ago.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for August were down 0.6% from the previous month, and were down 3.1% from a year ago.  Inventories in August were up less than 0.1%, and were up 2.4% from August 2014.
  • Total Industrial production decreased 0.2% in September, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The rate of capacity utilization was 77.5%, compared with 77.8 in the previous month.
  • The federal government budget ran a surplus of $91.1 billion in September, after a deficit of $64.4 billion in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Fiscal Service, Department of the Treasury. The federal budget deficit was $438.9 billion for the fiscal year 2015, compared with a deficit of $483.4 billion for the fiscal year 2014.
  • The producer price index for final demand, which held steady in August, decreased 0.5% in September. The core index, final demand for goods less food and energy, held steady in September. The producer price index for final demand decreased 1.1% from September 2014 to September 2015.
  •  The consumer price index (headline index) decreased 0.2% in September, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core index, which increased 0.1% in August, increased 0.2% in September. The consumer price index was unchanged from September 2014, while the core index increased 1.9%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 7 thousand to 255 thousand in the week ending October 10th, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average was 265 thousand, a decrease of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. This was the lowest level for this average since December 15, 1973 when it was 256.75 thousand.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1% from August to September, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This result stems from unchanged average hourly earnings combined with a 0.2% decrease in the consumer price index for all urban consumers. Real average hourly earnings rose 2.2% from September 2014 to September 2015.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 15th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving slightly higher. 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.82% for the week ending October 15th, up from last week when it averaged 3.76%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.97%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 27.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 9th.
  • The October 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity declined for a third consecutive month for New York manufacturers.
  • The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for October indicated weaker activity for the region’s manufacturing sector.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for October was 92.1, up from 87.2 in September.
  • The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated a continued modest expansion in economic activity during the reporting period from mid-August through early October.

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