Key Economic Indicators – December 28, 2015

  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the third quarter of 2015, after increasing 3.9% in the previous quarter, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second estimate, released about a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 2.1%.
  • Real gross domestic income increased 2.7% in the third quarter, following a 2.2% increase in the previous quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 2.3% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.0% in the second quarter. Real final sales of domestic product increased 2.7%, following a 3.9% increase in the previous quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3% in the third quarter, compared to an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter. 
  • Corporate profits from current production decreased $33.0 billion in the third quarter, after an increase of $70.4 billion in the previous quarter.
  • Personal income increased 0.3% in November, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures, which held steady in October, increased 0.3% in November. The price index for personal consumption expenditures held steady in November, while the core index increased 0.1%. The price index (headline index) was up 0.4% from November 2014, while the core index was up 1.3%.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods held steady in November, following a 2.9% increase in the previous month. Shipments increased 0.9%, following a 1.2% decrease in the previous month. Year-to-date new orders were down 3.7%, while shipments were up 1.8%.
  • November existing home sales decreased 10.5% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 4,760 thousand units, according to the National Association of Realtors. This represents a 3.8% decrease from a year ago. There were 2,040 thousand existing homes for sale at the end of the month. This represents a supply of 5.1 months at the current sales rate, compared with 5.0 months in November of 2014. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $220.3 thousand, 6.3% above November 2014.
  • November new home sales increased 4.3% to an annualized rate of 490 thousand units. The November figure was 9.1% above the November 2014 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold was $305.0 thousand, up 0.8% from a year ago.
  • U.S. House prices rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from September to October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in October, U.S. prices rose 6.1%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of December 24th showed average fixed mortgage rates largely unchanged from the previous week. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.96% for the week ending December 24, down slightly from last week when it averaged 3.97%  A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.83%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 7.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending December 18th.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 5 thousand to 267 thousand in the week ending December 19. The 4-week moving average was 272.5 thousand, an increase of 1.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in November. Twenty-seven states had unemployment rate decreases from October, 11 states had increases, and 12 states and the District of Columbia had no change, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In November, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 35 states and the District of Columbia, decreased in 14 states, and was unchanged in Montana.
  • The Chicago FED National Activity Index decreased to negative 0.30 in November from negative 0.17 in October. The index’s three-month moving average decreased to negative 0.20, from negative 0.18 in October.
  • Fifth District manufacturing activity grew modestly and service sector activity remained subdued in December, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 92.6 in December, its highest level since July.

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