Key Economic Indicators – January 18, 2016

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for December were down 0.1% from the previous month, but were up 2.2% from December 2014. Retail and food services sales for the year 2015 were up 2.1% from the previous year, while sales excluding motor vehicle & parts were up 0.9%.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for November were down 0.2%from the previous month, and were down 2.8% from November 2014. Inventories were down 0.2% from the previous month, but were up 1.6% from a year ago. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.38 at the end of November, compared with 1.32 at the end of November 2014.
  • Industrial production decreased 0.4% in December, following a 0.9% decrease in the previous month. The index was down 1.8% from December of 2014.The rate of capacity utilization for total industry decreased 0.4 percentage point to 76.5% in December. The rate of capacity utilization was 79.0% in December of 2014.  
  • The federal government budget ran a deficit of $14.4 billion in December, after a deficit of $64.6 billion in the previous month. The cumulative deficit for the first three months of the fiscal year 2016 was $215.5 billion, compared with a deficit of $176.6 billion for the first three months of the previous fiscal year.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 7 thousand to 284 thousand in the week ending January 9th. The 4-week moving average was 278.75 thousand, an increase of 3 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • There were 5.4 million job openings on the last business day of November, little changed from the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) decreased 0.2% in December, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The index for final demand goods decreased 0.7% in December, the sixth consecutive decrease. Prices for final demand goods less foods and energy, the core, inched up 0.1%. The producer price index for final demand decreased 1.0% from December 2014 to December 2015.
  • The import price index decreased 1.2% and the export price index decreased 1.1% in December. The import price index decreased 8.2% from December 2014, while export prices decreased 6.5%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of January 14th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving lower for the second consecutive week. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.92%, down from last week when it averaged 3.97%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.66%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.19%, down from last week when it averaged 3.26%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 2.98%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 21.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 8th.
  • The January 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity declined for New York manufacturers at the fastest pace since the Great Recession. The headline index dropped 13 points to negative 19.37.
  • The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that overall economic activity expanded in nine of the Districts since the previous report, with most Districts reporting a “modest” or “moderate” pace of growth.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, inched upward for the fourth consecutive month due to more positive expectations for future economic growth. The index was 93.3 in early January, compared with 92.6 in December and 98.1 in January of 2015.

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