Key Economic Indicators – April 18, 2016

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for March were down 0.3% from February, but were up 1.7% from March 2015. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail and food services sales were up 0.2% in March. Total sales for the January through March 2016 period were up 2.8% from the same period a year ago.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for February were down 0.4% from January, while inventories were down 0.1%.
  • Total Industrial production decreased 0.6% in March for a second month in a row. The index was 2.0% below its March 2015 level. For the first quarter of 2016, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 2.2%.
  • Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.5 percentage point in March to 74.8, a rate that is 5.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2015) average.
  • The federal government budget ran a deficit of $108.0 billion in March, following a deficit of $192.6 billion in the previous month. The cumulative budget deficit for the first six months of fiscal year 2016 was $461.0 billion, compared with a deficit of $439.5 billion for the same period of the previous fiscal year.
  • The import price index increased 0.2% in March, following a 0.4% decrease in the previous month. The overall import price index decreased 6.2% from March 2015. During the same period, the fuel index decreased 38.3%, while the non-fuel index decreased 2.5%.
  • The export price index was unchanged in March, following a 0.5% decrease in the previous month. The overall export price index decreased 6.1% from March 2015. During the same period, agricultural export prices were down 11.1%, while non-agricultural export prices were down 5.6%.
  • The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.1% in March, following a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade held steady in March, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.1% from March 2015 to March 2016, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.9%.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.1% in March, following a 0.2% decrease as in the previous month. The core index also increased 0.1%, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index decreased 0.9% for the 12-month period ending in March, while the core index rose 2.2%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% from February to March. This result stems from a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings being partially offset by a 0.1% increase in the consumer price index.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 13 thousand to 253 thousand in the week ending April 9. The 4-week moving average was 265 thousand, a decrease of 1.5 from the previous week’s revised average.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates declining slightly from the previous week to reach a new low for the year. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.58% for the week ending April 14th, down from last week when it averaged 3.59%. A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.67%.  
  • Mortgage applications increased 10.0% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending April 8th.
  • The April Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity expanded for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index rose nine points to 9.6, its highest level in more than a year. The prices paid index increased 16 points, indicating a pickup in input price increases, while the prices received index rose above zero, a sign that selling prices increased.
  • The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that overall economic activity continued to expand in late February and March, though the pace of growth varied across Districts.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, continued its slow overall decline in early April. The index decreased to 89.7 in April, from 91 in March. The index was 95.9 in April 2015.

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