Key Economic Indicators – November 21, 2016

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for October were up 0.8% from September, and were up 4.3% from October 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales were up 0.8% from September, and were up 4.0% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 2.9% from the first 10 months of 2015.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for September were up 0.7% from August, while inventories were up 0.2%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.38, compared with 1.39 in September 2015.
  • Total Industrial production, which decreased 0.2% in September held steady in October. Total industrial production in October was 0.9% below its level a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization decreased a percentage point to 75.3%, 4.7 percentage points below its 1972-2015 average.
  • Housing starts in October were up 25.5% from the previous month, and were up 23.3% from October 2015. Building permits in October were up 0.3% from September, and were up 4.6% from a year ago.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates rising. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.94% for the week ending November 17th, up from last week when it averaged 3.57%.  A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.97%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 9.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 11th.
  • The consumer price index increased 0.4% in October, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The core index increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.6% for the 12-month period ending in October, while the core index rose 2.1%.
  • The producer price index for total final demand was unchanged in October, while the index for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.1%. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.8% from October 2015 to October 2016.
  • The import price index increased 0.5% in October, while the export price index increased 0.2%. The import price index decreased 0.2% from October 2015 to October 2016, while the price index for exports decreased 1.1%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 254 thousand in the week ending November 5, a decrease of 11 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 259.75 thousand, an increase of 1.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.1% from September to October. This result stems from 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings, being nearly offset by a 0.4% increase in the consumer price index.
  • The November 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity stabilized for New York manufacturers. The headline index was 1.5 in November, up from negative 6.8 in October.
  • The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey indicated that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand in November.
  • The Conference Board’s leading economic index increased 0.1% in October, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The coincident index increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. Over the six-month span through October, the leading index increased 0.7% with six out of ten components advancing, while the coincident index increased 0.8% with all four components advancing.

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