Key Economic Indicators – January 30, 2017

  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2016, after increasing 3.5% in the previous quarter, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • Real final sales of domestic product increased 0.9%, following a 3.0% increase in the previous quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.0% in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter.  The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 2.2%, compared with an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter.
  • Real GDP increased 1.6% in the year 2016, compared with an increase of 2.6% in 2015. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.0% in 2016, compared to an increase of 0.4% in 2015.
  • Current-dollar GDP increased 2.9% in 2016 to a level of $18,566.9 billion, compared with an increase of 3.7% in 2015.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 0.4% in December, while shipments increased 1.4%. New orders in the year 2016 were down 0.3% from 2015, while shipments were down 0.5%.
  • December existing home sales decreased 2.8% to an annualized rate of 5.49 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. The December figure was 0.7 % above the December 2015 figure. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $232.2 thousand, 4.0% above December 2015. The housing inventory at the end of December dropped 10.8% to 1.65 million existing homes for sale. Sales were at 5.45 million units for the year 2016, the highest since 2006.
  • December new home sales decreased 10.4% to an annualized rate of 536 thousand units, following a 4.7% increase in the previous month. The December figure was 0.4% below the December 2015 figure.  The median sales price of new houses sold was $322.5 thousand, 7.9% above December 2015. Sales were 563 thousand units in the year 2016, 12.2% above the previous year.
  • U.S. House prices rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from October to November, after increasing 0.3% in the previous period, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in November, U.S. prices rose 6.1%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates moving higher from the previous week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.19% for the week ending January 24, up from last week when it averaged 4.09%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.79%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 4.0% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 20.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 22 thousand to 259 thousand in the week ending January 21. The 4-week moving average was 245.5 thousand, a decrease of 2 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased sharply in December for the fourth consecutive month. The leading index increased 0.5% in December, following a 0.1% increase in November. Over the last six months of 2016, the index grew 1.4% (about 2.8% annual rate)., much faster than the growth of 0.2% over the first half of the year.
  • The Conference Board coincident economic index increased 0.3% in December, after holding steady in November. The coincident index rose 1.0% (about 2.0% annual rate) during the last six months of 2016, faster than the growth of 0.6% over the first half of the year.
  • The Chicago FED National Activity Index increased to positive 0.14 in December, from negative 0.33 in November. The index’s three-month moving average was negative 0.07, compared with negative 0.14 in November.
  • The Chicago FED’s National Financial Conditions Index was negative 0.79 in the week ending January 20, remaining at its lowest level since July 2015.
  • Fifth District manufacturing activity and service sector activity both strengthen in January, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 98.5 in January 2017, up from 98.2 in December. The index was 92.0 in January of 2016. The index for current economic conditions edged down to 111.3, from 111.9 in December, while the index of consumer expectations increased to 90.3 from 89.5.

 

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