Key Economic Indicators – February 20, 2017

·        Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for January were up 0.4% from December, and were up 5.6% from January 2016. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales were up 0.8% from the previous month, and were up 5.3% from a year ago.
·        Total manufacturing and trade sales increased 2.0% in December, while inventories increased 0.4%. Sales were up 5.2% from a year ago, and inventories were up 2.0% from December 2015.
·        Total Industrial production decreased 0.3% in January, following a 0.6% increase in the previous month. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 75.3%, a level 4.6 percentage points below its 1972-2016 average, and 0.4 percentage point above its level in January 2016.
·        Housing starts in January were down 2.6% from December, but were up 10.5% from January 2016. Building permits in January were up 4.6% from December, and were up 8.2% from January 2016.
·        The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo decreased to 65 in February, from 67 in January. The index was 58 in February 2016.
·        The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.15% for the week ending February 16, 2017, down from last week when it averaged 4.17%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.65%.
·        Mortgage applications decreased 3.7% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 10.
·        The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.6% in January, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods and energy increased 0.4%, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.6% from January 2016, while the index for final demand less foods and energy increased 2.1%
·        The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.6% in January, following a 0.3% in the previous month. The January increase was the largest since February 2013. The core index, all items less food and energy, increased 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.5% for the 12-month period ending in January, while the core index rose 2.3%.
·        The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 5 thousand to 239 thousand in the week ending February 11. The 4-week average was 245.25 thousand, an increase of 0.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
·        Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5% from December to January. This result stems from a 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.6% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 
·        The February Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity expanded at a solid pace in New York. The general business conditions index rose to 18.7 in February, from 6.5 in January.
·        The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for February reported that growth in regional manufacturing is broadening. The index for general business activity was 43.3 in February, up from 23.6 in January.
·        The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.6% in January, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. In the six-month period ending January 2017, the leading economic index increased 1.6% (about 3.3% annual rate), much faster than the growth of 0.9 percent (about 1.8% annual rate) during the previous six months. The coincident index increased 0.1%, following a 0.2% in December. The coincident economic index rose 0.8% (about a 1.6% annual rate) between July 2016 and January 2017, the same pace of growth as in the previous six months.

 

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