Key Economic Indicators – April 3, 2017

  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016, following a 3.5% increase in the previous quarter, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the “second” estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 1.9%.
  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 5.0% in the third quarter.
  • The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.5% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.3% in the third quarter
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.0% in the fourth quarter, following a 1.5% increase in the third quarter.
  • Real GDP increased 1.6% in the year 2016, following an increase of 2.6% in 2015. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.0% in 2016, compared with an increase of 0.4% in 2015.
  • Corporate profits from current production increased $11.2 billion in the fourth quarter, after an increase of $117.8 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2016, profits from current production decreased $2.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $64.0 billion in 2015.
  • Personal income increased 0.4%, in February, following a 0.5% in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1% in February, after increasing 0.2% in January. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1% in February, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. The price index excluding food and energy increased 0.2% in February, after a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The price index increased 2.1% from February 2016, while the index excluding food and energy increased 1.8%.
  • State personal income grew on average 3.6% in 2016, after increasing 4.5% in 2015, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth of state personal income ranged from negative 1.7% in Wyoming to positive 5.9% in Nevada.
  • Private nonfarm business sector multifactor productivity decreased at a 0.2% annual rate in 2016, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This 2016 decline reflected a 1.7% increase in output and a 1.9% increase in the combined inputs of capital and labor.
  • The Pending Home Sales Index increased 5.5% to a reading of 112.3 in February, according to the National Association of Realtors. The index was 2.6% above February 2016 level.
  • The S & P Corelogic Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index for January indicates that home prices continued their rise across country over the last 12 months. The National index, seasonally adjusted, was up 0.6% in January, following a 0.7% increase in the previous month. The National index, not seasonally adjusted, was up 0.2% from the previous month, and was up 5.9% from January 2016. As of January 2017, average home prices were back at their June/July 2006 peaks.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moving lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.14% for the week ending March 30, down from last week when it averaged 4.23%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.71%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.39%, down from last week when it averaged 3.44%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 2.98%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 0.8% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending March 24th.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 3 thousand to 258 thousand in the week ending March 25. The 4-week moving average was 254.25 thousand, an increase of 7.75 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 18 was 2,052 thousand, an increase of 65 thousand from the previous week’s revised level.
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had increased in February, surged in March. The Index increased to 125.6 in March, from 116.1 in February. The expectations index increased from 103.9 to 113.8, while the present situation index increased from 134.4 to 143.1.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment edged up to 96.9 in March, from 96.3 in February. The Index was 91.0 in March of 2016.

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