Key Economic Indicators – May 15, 2017

·      Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for April were up 0.4% from March, and were up 4.5% from April 2016. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 3.5% from the same period a year ago.

·      Total manufacturing and trade sales for March were unchanged from the previous month, but were up 6.5% from a year ago. Total business inventories were up 0.2% from February, and were up 2.6% from March 2016. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.35, compared with 1.40 year ago.

·      Sales of merchant wholesalers in March were virtually unchanged, while inventories were up 0.2%.  The March inventories/sales ratio was 1.28, compared with 1.35 in March of 2016.

·      Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in every state and the District of Columbia in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Real GDP growth ranged from 3.4% in Texas to 0.1% in Kansas and Mississippi. Finance and insurance, retail trade, and professional, scientific, and technical services were the leading contributors to U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter. In the year 2016, real GDP grew in 43 states and the District of Columbia.  Real GDP growth ranged from 3.7% in Washington to negative 6.5% in North Dakota.

·      The federal government budget ran a surplus of $182.4 billion in April, following a deficit of $176.2 billion in the previous month. The cumulative budget deficit for the first seven months of fiscal year 2017 was $344.4 billion, compared with a deficit of $352.9 billion for the same period of the previous fiscal year.

·      The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.5% in April, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month.  The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.7%, after an increase of 0.1% in March. The producer price index for final demand increased 2.5% for the 12 months ended in April, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 2.1%.

·      The import price index increased 0.5% in April, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The export price index increased 0.4%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The import price index increased 4.1% from April 2016, while the price index for exports increased 3.0%.

·      The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.2% in April, following a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. The core index increased 0.1%, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.2% for the 12-month period ending in April, while the core index rose 1.9%.

·      Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1% from March to April. This result stems from a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.2% increase in the consumer price index.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 2 thousand to 236 thousand in the week ending May 6. The 4-week moving average was 243.5 thousand, an increase of 0.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      There were 5.7 million job openings on the last business day of March, little changed from February. The job openings rate for March was 3.8%, compared with 3.9% a year ago. The number of hires was virtually unchanged at 5.3 million in March. There were 5.1 million total separations, little changed from February.

·      Labor productivity increased in 31 of the 90 manufacturing and mining industries in 2016, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was fewer than in 2015 when labor productivity rose in 41 industries.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moving slightly higher. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.05% for the week ending May 11, up from last week when it averaged 4.02%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.57%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.29%, up from last week when it averaged 3.27%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 2.81%.

·      Mortgage applications increased 2.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending May 5th.

·      The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for May, preliminary, edged up to 97.7. The index was 97.0 in April, and 94.7 in May of 2016.

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