Key Economic Indicators – September 4, 2017

·      Total non-farm payroll employment rose 156 thousand in August, following an increase of 189 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 165 thousand in July, while government employment decreased by 9 thousand. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, food services and drinking places, professional and technical services, health care, and mining. The average monthly gain in employment was 176 thousand per month thus far this year.

·      The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in August, from 4.3% in July. The unemployment rate was 4.9% in August 2016.

·      The number of unemployed increased by 151 thousand to 7.132 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 45 thousand to 1.740 million and accounted for 24.7% of the unemployed.

·      The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.9% in August.

·      The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 34.4 hours in August, down from 34.5 hours in the previous month.

·      In August, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 3 cents to $26.39. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.5%.

·      Unemployment rates were lower in July than a year earlier in 340 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 39 areas, and unchanged in 9 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 336 metropolitan areas, decreased in 46 areas, and was unchanged in 6 areas.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased a thousand to 236 thousand in the week ending August 26. The 4-week moving average was 236.75 thousand, a decrease of 1.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending August 19 was 1,942 thousand, a decrease of 12 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,951.5 thousand, a decrease of 6.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “second” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 1.2%. In the advance estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 2.6% for the second quarter of 2017.

·      Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 3.0% in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.7% in the first quarter.

·      Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.9% in the second quarter of 2017, compared with an increase of 2.7% in the first quarter.

·      The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 3.0% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0% in the previous quarter.

·      The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8% in the second quarter of 2017, compared with an increase of 2.6% in the previous quarter.

·      The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.3%, compared with an increase of 2.2% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 0.9%, compared with an increase of 1.8%.

·      Corporate profits from current production increased $26.8 billion in the second quarter of 2017, after a decrease of $46.2 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $29.4 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of $40.7 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $64.8 billion, compared with a decrease of $9.3 billion in the previous quarter. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $8.6 billion, compared with a decrease of $9.3 billion in the previous quarter.

·      Personal income increased 0.4% in July, and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures, both the headline index and the core index, increased 0.1% in July.  Bothe the headline index and the core index were up 1.4% from July 2016.

·      Retail inventories for July were down 0.2% from the previous month, but were up 3.3% from July 2016, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. 

·      Wholesale inventories for July were up 0.4% from the previous month, and were up 3.2% from July 2016. 

·      The international trade deficit in goods was $65.1 billion in July, up $1.1 billion from $64.0 billion in June, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Exports of goods for July were $127.1 billion, $1.6 billion less than June exports. Imports of goods for July were $192.2 billion, $0.5 billion less than June imports.

·      July construction spending was down 0.6% from the previous month, but was up 1.8% from a year ago. Residential construction increased 0.8%, while nonresidential construction decreased 1.7%. Total private construction decreased 0.4%, while total public construction decreased 1.4%.

·      The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, decreased 0.8% to a reading of 109.1 in July, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Index was down 1.3% from July 2016.

·      The S & P Corelogic Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index posted annual increases of 4.9% and 5.7% in June, for the 10-city and 20-city composite indices, respectively. The National Index, covering all nine U.S. Census divisions, increased 5.8% from a year ago.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates continuing to move lower. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.82% for the week ending August 31, down from last week when it averaged 3.86%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.46%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.12% for the week ending August 31, down from the previous week when it averaged 3.16%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.77%.

·      Mortgage applications decreased 2.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 25th.

·      The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in August, and the overall economy grew for the 99th consecutive month.

·      The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 97.6 in August, from 93.4 in July.  The Index was 89.8 a year ago.

·      The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had increased in July, improved further in August. The Index now stands at 122.9 (1985=100), up from 120.0 in July. The Present Situation Index increased from 145.4 to 151.2, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 103.0 last month to 104.0.

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