Key Economic Indicators – December 11, 2017

 

·      Total non-farm payroll employment increased 228 thousand in November, following an increase of 244 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 221 thousand in November, while government employment increased by 7 thousand. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care. Employment growth has averaged 174 thousand per month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly gain of 187 thousand in 2016.

·      The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in November. The unemployment rate was 4.6% in November 2016.

·      The number of unemployed increased by 90 thousand to 6.610 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 40 thousand to 1.581 million and accounted for 23.8% of the unemployed.

·      The labor force participation rate remained at 62.7% in November, and has shown no clear trend over the past 12 months.

·      The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in November.

·      In November, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 5 cents to $26.55. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.5%.

·      Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.0% during the third quarter of 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output increased 4.1% and hours worked increased 1.1%. From the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017, productivity increased 1.5%, reflecting a 3.0% increase in output and a 1.5% increase in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector decreased 0.2% in the third quarter of 2017, reflecting a 2.7% increase in hourly compensation and a 3.0% increase in productivity. Unit labor costs decreased 0.7% over the last four quarters.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 2 thousand to 236 thousand in the week ending December 2. The 4-week moving average was 241.5 thousand, a decrease of 0.75 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending November 25 was 1,908 thousand, a decrease of 52 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,912.75 thousand, an increase of a thousand from the previous week’s revised average.

·      Sales of domestic cars decreased 4.1% in November, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales decreased 3.7%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total vehicle sales were 17.3 million units in November, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.3 million in January 2017, and 17.6 million in November of 2016.

·      New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.1% in October, while shipments increased 0.6%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Year-to-date, new orders were up 5.6%, while shipments were up 4.9%.

·      Sales of merchant wholesalers for October were up 0.7% from the previous month, and were up 8.4% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Inventories decreased 0.5% in October, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The inventories/sales ratio was 1.25 in October, compared with 1.30 a year ago.

·      The international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $48.7 billion in October from $44.9 billion in September (revised), as exports decreased to $195.9 billion and imports increased to $244.6 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moving higher for the week ending December 7th. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.94% for the week ending December 7, up from the previous week when it averaged 3.90%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.13%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.36%, up from the previous week when it averaged 3.30%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.36%.

·      Mortgage applications increased 4.7% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 1, 2017.

·      The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey indicated that economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November, for the 95th consecutive month.

·      The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, decreased to 96.8 in December, from 98.5 in November. The Index was 98.2 a year ago. The Current Economic Conditions Index increased from 113.5 to 115.9, while the Index of Consumer Expectations decreased from 88.9 to 84.6.

 

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