Key Economic Indicators – December 25, 2017

  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter of 2017, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 3.1%.  In the second estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 3.3%.
  • Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 2.4% in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.9% in the previous quarter.
  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.0% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.3% (revised) in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.6% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.7% in the second quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7% in the third quarter of 2017, compared with an increase of 0.9% in the previous quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.5%, compared with an increase of 0.3%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.3%, compared with an increase of 0.9%.
  • Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital consumption adjustment) increased $90.2 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $14.4 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $47.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $33.8 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $10.4 billion, compared with an increase of $59.1 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $32.0 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $10.8 billion.
  • Personal income increased 0.3% in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased 0.4% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.6%. Real DPI increased 0.1% in October and real PCE increased 0.4%. The PCE price index increased 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1%. The PCE price index increased 1.8% from a year ago, while the core (PCE excluding food and energy) price index increased 1.5%.
  • State personal income increased 0.7% on average in the third quarter of 2017, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, state personal income increased 0.6%. Increases in earnings and personal current transfer receipts were the leading contributors to the acceleration in personal income in the third quarter. Personal income increased 1.0% in Washington, faster than in any other state. Texas had the next largest increase at 0.9%. South Dakota, New Mexico, Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa had the slowest increases in personal income.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 1.3% in November, while shipments increased 1.0%. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1%.  Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.0%. Year-to-date, new orders were up 5.4%, and shipments were up 4.1% from the same period a year ago.
  • The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $100.6 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2017 from $124.4 billion (revised) in the second quarter of 2017, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit decreased to 2.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.6% in the second quarter. The $23.8 billion decrease in the current-account deficit reflected decreases in the deficits on secondary income and goods and increases in the surpluses on primary income and services.
  • Housing starts in November were up 3.3% from the previous month, and were up 12.9% from November 2016. Year-to-date, housing starts were up 3.1% from the same period a year ago. Building permits in November were down 1.4% from October, but were up 3.4% from a year ago. Year-to-date building permits were up 5.8% from the same period a year ago.
  • Existing home sales in November were up 5.6% from the previous month, and were up 3.8% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median existing home price in November was $248.0 thousand, up 5.8% from November 2016. Total housing inventory at the end of November decreased 7.2% from the previous month, and 9.7% from a year ago, to 1.67 million. Unsold inventory was at a 3.4-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with 3.9 months in October, and 4.0 months a year ago.
  • November new home sales increased 17.5% to an annualized rate of 733 thousand units. The November figure was 26.6% above the November 2016 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold was $318.7 thousand, 1.2% above November 2016.
  • U.S. house prices increased 0.5% in October, the same increase as in the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA). For the 12 months ending in October, U.S. house prices rose 6.6%.
  • The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo increased 5 points to 74 in December. The Index was 67 in January 2017, and 69 in December of 2016.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average mortgage rates inching up. 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.94% for the week ending December 21, up from last week when it averaged 3.93%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year rate was 4.30%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.38%, up from last week when it averaged 3.36%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year rate was 3.52%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 4.9% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending December 20th. 
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 20 thousand to 245 thousand in the week ending December 16. The 4-week moving average was 236 thousand, an increase of 1.25 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending December 9 was 1,932 thousand, an increase of 43 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,923 thousand, an increase of 4.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • The Conference Board’s leading economic index increased 0.4% in November, following a 1.2% increase in the previous month. The coincident index increased 0.3%, the same increase as in the previous month. Over the six-month span through November, the leading index increased 3.0% (about a 6.1% annual rate) with nine out of ten components advancing, while the coincident index increased 1.0% (about a 1.9% annual rate) with all four components advancing.
  • The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey indicated that regional manufacturing activity continued to improve in December.  The general business activity index increased to 26.2 in December, from 22.7 in November.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined to 0.15 in November, from 0.76 in October. The index’s three-month moving average, increased to 0.41 in November from 0.31 in October. Forty-two of the 85 individual indicators that make up the Index made positive contributions to the Index in November, while 43 made negative contributions. Thirty-six indicators improved from October to November, while 49 indicators deteriorated. Of the indi­cators that improved, 13 made negative contributions.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 95.9 in December, from 98.5 in November. The Index was 98.2 in December of 2016. The Current Conditions Index inched up from 113.5 in November to 113.8 in December, while The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased from 88.9 to 84.3.

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