Key Economic Indicators – January 15, 2018

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for December were up 0.4% from November, and were up 5.4% from December 2016.  Total sales for the year 2017 were up 4.2% from the year 2016.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for November were up 1.2% from October, and were up 7.9% from November 2016. Inventories were up 0.4% from the previous month, and were up 3.2% from a year ago. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of November was 1.33, compared with 1.40 a year ago.
  • Sales of merchant wholesalers in November were up 1.5% from the previous month, and were up 9.8% from the November 2016 level. Total inventories were up 0.8% from October, and were up 4.0% from November 2016.
  • The federal government budget ran a deficit of $23.2 billion in December, after a deficit of $138.5 billion in the previous month. The cumulative deficit for the first three months of the fiscal year 2018 was $225.0 billion, compared with the deficit of $209.8 billion for the first three months of the previous fiscal year.
  • November consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 8.75% to $3,827.2 billion. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.25%, while non-revolving credit increased 7.25%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates rising across the board. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.99% for the week ending January 11, up from last week when it averaged 3.95%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 4.12%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.44%, up from last week when it averaged 3.38%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.37%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 8.3% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 5, 2018.
  • The import price index in December was up 0.1% from November, and was up 3.0% from December of 2016. The export price index was down 0.1% from November, but was up 2.6% from December of 2016.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) decreased 0.1% in December, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core index, final demand less foods and energy, decreased 0.1% in December, after a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The headline index increased 2.6% from December 2016 to December 2017, while the core index increased 2.3%.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) rose 0.1% in December, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. The core index, all items less food and energy, increased 0.3%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.1% for the 12-month period ending in December, while the core index rose 1.8%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% from November to December. This result stems from a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 11 thousand to 261 thousand in the week ending January 6. The 4-week moving average was 250.75 thousand, an increase of 9 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average.
  • The number of job openings was little changed at 5.9 million on the last business day of November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.5 million and 5.2 million, respectively.
  • The labor Market Conditions Index constructed by the Kansas City Federal Reserve was 0.44 in December, compared with 0.51 in November, and 0.28 in December of 2016.

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