Key Economic Indicators – February 19, 2018

·      Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for January were down 0.3% from December, but were up 3.6% from January 2017. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales were unchanged from the previous month, and were up 4.2% from a year ago.

·      Total manufacturing and trade sales increased 0.6% in December, while inventories increased 0.4%. Sales were up 6.7% from a year ago, and inventories were up 3.2% from December 2016.

·      Total Industrial production decreased 0.1% in January, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 77.5%, a level 2.3 percentage points below its 1972-2017 average, and 1.8 percentage point above its level in January 2017.

·      Housing starts in January were up 9.7% from December, and were up 7.3% from January 2017. Building permits in January were up 7.4% from the previous month.

·      The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo Held steady at 72 in February.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaching its highest level since April 2014. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.38% for the week ending February 15th, up from last week when it averaged 4.32%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.15%.

·      Mortgage applications decreased 4.1% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 9, 2018.

·      The import price index increased 1.0% in January, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Import prices advanced 3.6% from January 2017 to January 2018. The export price index increased 0.8% in January, after increasing 0.1% in December. Export prices increased 3.4% from January 2017 to January 2018.

·      The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.4% in January, after holding steady in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods and energy increased 0.4%, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.7% from January 2017, while the index for final demand less foods and energy increased 2.2%

·      The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.5% in January, following a 0.2% in the previous month. The core index, all items less food and energy, increased 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.1% for the 12-month period ending in January, while the core index rose 1.8%.

·      Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2% from December to January. This result stems from a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.5% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 7 thousand to 230 thousand in the week ending February 10. The 4-week moving average was 228.5 thousand, an increase of 3.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.

·      The February Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity continued to expand in New York. The general business conditions index was 13.1 in February, compared with 17.7 in January.

·      The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey reported that manufacturing activity continued to expand in February. The general business activity index was 22.2 in February, compared with 25.8 in January.

·      The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for February was 99.9, up from 95.7 in January. The index was 96.3 in February of 2017. The current economic conditions component was 115.1 in early February, compared with 110.5 in January. The index of consumer expectations increased to 90.2 in February, from 86.3 in January.

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