Key Economic Indicators – March 19, 2018

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for February were down 0.1% from January, but were up 4.0% from February 2017. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, sales were up 0.2% from the previous month, and were up 4.4% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales and food services were up 4.7% from the same period of 2017.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for January were down 0.2% from the previous month, but were up 5.7% from January 2017. Total business inventories were up 0.6% from the previous month, and were up 3.7% from a year ago. The inventories/sales ratio was 1.34, compared with 1.37 in January of 2017.
  • Total Industrial production increased 1.1% in February, after decreasing 0.3% in the previous month. Total Industrial production was up 4.4% from February 2017. The capacity utilization rate was 78.1 in February, 1.7 percentage points below the average for the 1972-2017 period.
  • Housing starts in February were 1,236 thousand, down 7.0% from the previous month and were down 4.0% from a year ago. Building permits in February were 1,298 thousand units, down 5.7% from January, but were up 6.5% from February 2017.
  • The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo decreased to 70 in March, from 71 in February. The index was 71 in March of 2017, and 72 in January 2018.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates dropping after nine consecutive weeks of increases. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.44% for the week ending March 15, down from last week when it averaged 4.46%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.30%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.90%, down from last week when it averaged 3.94%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.50%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 0.9% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending March 9th.
  • The federal budget had a deficit of $215.2 billion in February, compared with a surplus of $49.2 billion in January and a deficit of $192.0 billion in February of 2017. The cumulative deficit for the first five months of the fiscal year 2018 was $391.0 billion, compared with a deficit of $350.6 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year.
  • The import price index increased 0.4% in February, following a 0.8% increase in the previous month. The export price index increased 0.2% in February, following a 0.8% increase in the previous month. The import price index increased 2.5% from February 2017, while export prices increased 3.3%.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.2% in February, following an increase of 0.4% in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.4%, the same increase as in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand (headline index) was up 2.8% from February 2017 to February 2018, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade was up 2.7%. The index for processed goods for intermediate demand increased 0.7% in February, while the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand decreased 2.8%. The index for services for intermediate demand increased 0.5%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.2% in February, following a 0.5% increase in January. The core index increased 0.2%, following a 0.3% increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.2% for the 12-month period ending in February, while the core index rose 1.8%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from January to February. This result stems from a 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings offset by a 0.2% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 4 thousand to 226 thousand in the week ending March 10. The 4-week moving average was 221.5 thousand, a decrease of 0.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending March 3 was 1,879 thousand, an increase of 4 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1890.75 thousand, a decrease of 17.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • There were 6.3 million job openings on the last business day of January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively.
  • Unemployment rates were lower in January in six states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sixteen states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 34 states and the District of Columbia had little or no change. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 3 states, decreased in 1 state, and essentially unchanged in 46 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Unemployment rates were lower in January than a year earlier in 337 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 39 areas, and unchanged in 12 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 295 metropolitan areas, decreased in 78 areas, and was unchanged in 15 areas.
  • The March Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity continued to grow at a solid pace in New York. The general business conditions index was 22.5 in March, compared with 13.1 in February.
  • The Philadelphia FED manufacturing business outlook survey for March reported that business activity continued to expand. The indicator for general activity was 22.3 in March, compared with 25.8 in February.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for March increased to 102.0, from 99.7 in February. The index was 96.9 a year ago.

 

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