· Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for March were up 0.6% from February, and were up 4.5% from March 2017. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales in March were up 0.2% from the previous month, and were up 4.5% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 4.8% from the same period a year ago.
· Total manufacturing and trade sales for February were up 0.4% from January, and were up 5.8% from February 2017. Total business inventories for February were up 0.6% from the previous month, and were up 4.0% from a year ago.
· Total Industrial production increased 0.5% in March following a 1.0% increase in the previous month. The index was 4.3% above its March 2017 level. For the first quarter of 2018, industrial production increased at an annual rate of 4.5%.
· Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage point in March to 78.0, a rate that is 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average.
· Durable goods manufacturing, construction, and professional, scientific, and technical services were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 16 of 22 industry groups contributed to the overall 2.9% increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter.
· Real GDP increased 2.3% in the year 2017. The private as well as the government sector contributed to the increase. Growth was widespread, with 20 of 22 industry groups contributing to the increase. Real estate and rental and leasing, health care and social assistance, and durable goods manufacturing were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP.
· Housing starts in March were up 1.9% from the previous month, and were up 10.9% from a year ago. Building permits were up 2.5% from the previous month, and were up 7.5% from a year ago.
· The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo decreased to 69 in April, from 70 in March. The index was 72 in January of 2018, and 68 in April of 2017.
· The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average mortgage rates “jumping across the board”. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.47% for the week ending April 19, up from last week when it averaged 4.42%. A year ago this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.97%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.94%, up from last week when it averaged 3.87%. A year ago this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.23%.
· Mortgage applications increased 4.9% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending April 13th.
· The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased a thousand to 232 thousand in the week ending April 14. The 4-week moving average was 231.25 thousand, an increase of 1.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
· Unemployment rates were lower in March in 4 states, higher in one state, and stable in 33 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seventeen states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, and 33 states and the District of Columbia had little or no change. Over the year, 24 states added nonfarm payroll jobs, and 26 states and the District of Colombia were essentially unchanged.
· Labor productivity declines were widespread among manufacturing industries in 2017, with decreases in 54 of the 86 four-digit industries, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Of the 51 industries in durable manufacturing, 34 experienced productivity decreases in 2017. Nondurable manufacturing also experienced widespread declines in 2017 with productivity falling in 20 of 35 industries. Of the 4 industries in the mining sector, 3 had productivity gains in 2017.
· The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.3% in March, following an increase of 0.7% in the previous month. Over the six-month span through March, the leading index increased 4.3% (about an 8.8% annual rate). The Conference Board coincident economic index increased 0.2% in March, following a 0.4% increase as in the previous month. Over the six-month span through March, the coincident index increased 1.4% (about a 2.8% annual rate).
· The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that overall economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts in March and early April.
· The April Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity grew at a solid pace in New York. The general business conditions index was 15.8 in April, compared with 22.5 in March. The prices paid index decreased 1.1 points, while the prices received index rose 3.1 points.
· The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for April reported continued growth in manufacturing activity in the region. The indicator for general activity, edged up to 23.2 in April, from 22.3 in March.