Key Economic Indicators – June 11, 2018

·      New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.8% in April, following a 1.7% increase in the previous month. Shipments increased less than 0.1%, following a 0.7% increase in the previous month. Year-to-date new orders were up 8.3%, and shipments were up 7.1%.

·      Sales of domestic cars decreased 1.6% in May, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales decreased 1.8%. Total vehicle sales were 16.8 million units in May, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.1 million in January 2018, and 16.7 million in May of 2017.

·      Sales of merchant wholesalers in April were up 0.8% from the previous month, and were up 7.8% from April of 2017. Sales of durable goods were up 0.8% in April, and sales of nondurable goods were up 0.7%. Inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.1% from the previous month, and were up 5.8% from April 2016.  The April inventories/sales ratio was 1.28, compared with 1.3 a year ago.

·      U.S. selected services total revenue for the first quarter of 2018, not adjusted for seasonal variation or price changes, was $3,746.4 billion, a decrease of 1.2% from the fourth quarter of 2017, and up 5.2% from the first quarter of 2017. 

·      U.S. manufacturing corporations’ seasonally adjusted after-tax profits in the first quarter of 2018 totaled $154.0 billion, up $36.4 billion from the after-tax profits of $117.6 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017, and up $3.7 billion from the after-tax profits of $150.2 billion recorded in the first quarter of 2017.  

·      Seasonally adjusted after-tax profits of U.S. retail corporations with assets of $50 million and over totaled $28.2 billion, down $1.1 billion from the $29.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017, but up $9.2 billion from the $19.0 billion recorded in the first quarter of 2017.

·      In April, international trade deficit in goods and services was $46.2 billion, down $1.0 billion from March. Exports increased $0.6 billion to $211.2 billion, and imports decreased $0.4 billion to $257.4 billion. The cumulative deficit was $201.8 billion for the first four months of 2018, compared with a deficit of $181.0 billion for the same period of the previous year.

·      Non-farm business sector labor productivity increased 0.4% during the first quarter of 2018, following a 0.3% increase in the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor. Unit labor costs increased 2.9%, following a 2.5% increase in the previous quarter. Productivity in the non-farm business sector increased 1.3% from the first quarter of 2017, and unit labor costs also increased 1.3%.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased a thousand to 222 thousand in the week ending June 2. The 4-week moving average was 225.5 thousand, an increase of 2.75 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending May 26 was 1,741 thousand, an increase of 21 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,728.75 thousand, a decrease of 13.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. This was the lowest level for this average since December 8, 1973 when it was 1,715.5 thousand.

·      The number of job openings increased slightly to a new series high of 6.698 million on the last business day of April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hires increased to 5.578 million, while separations increased to 5.408 million. Over the 12 months ending in April, hires totaled 66.1 million and separations totaled 63.7 million, yielding a net employment gain of 2.4 million. These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.

·      Employer costs for employee compensation averaged $36.32 per hour worked in March 2018, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages and salaries averaged $24.77 per hour worked and accounted for 68.2% of these costs, while benefits averaged $11.55 and accounted for the remaining 31.8%. Private industry employer costs for paid leave averaged $2.40 per hour worked or 7.0% of total compensation, supplemental pay averaged $1.32 (3.9%), insurance benefits averaged $2.74 (8.0%), retirement and savings averaged $1.30 (3.8%), and legally required benefits averaged $2.65 per hour worked or 7.8%. The average cost for health insurance benefits was $2.58 per hour worked in private industry (7.5% of total compensation) in March 2018.

·      From December 2016 to December 2017, employment increased in 316 of the 346 largest U.S. counties, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U.S. average weekly wage increased 3.9% over the year, growing to $1,109 in the fourth quarter of 2017. In December 2017, the 346 U.S. counties with 75,000 or more jobs accounted for 73.0% of total U.S. employment and 78.3% of total wages.

·      The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $100.8 trillion during the first quarter of 2018, according to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

·      Domestic nonfinancial debt outstanding was $49.8 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2018, of which household debt was $15.3 trillion, nonfinancial business debt was $14.4 trillion, and total government debt was $20.1 trillion.

·      Domestic nonfinancial debt growth was 7.2% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter of 2018, up from an annual rate of 2.9% in the previous quarter. Household debt increased at an annual rate of 3.3%, while nonfinancial business debt rose at an annual rate of 4.4%. Federal government debt decreased at an annual rate of 15.3% in the first quarter, while state and local government debt contracted at an annual rate of 4.2%.

·      April consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 2.9%. Revolving credit increased 2.6%, while non-revolving credit increased 3.0%.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates dipped for the second consecutive week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.54% for the week ending June 7, down from last week when it averaged 4.56%. A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.89%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.01%, down from last week when it averaged 4.06%. A year ago at this time, 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.16%.

·      Mortgage applications increased 4.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 1st.

·      In May, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity for the 100th consecutive month. Fourteen non-manufacturing industries reported growth, and one sector reported contraction in activity.

·      The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) was unchanged at negative 0.80 in the week ending June 1. The risk sub-index contributed negative 0.34, the credit index contributed negative 0.31, and leverage sub-index contributed negative 0.15 The adjusted Index (ANFCI) ticked up to negative 0.53 in the latest week.

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