Key Economic Indicators – December 24, 2018

  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2%.  In the second estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 3.5%.
  • Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 1.0% in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of 5.4% in the previous quarter.
  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 4.3% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9% in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 3.8% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5% in the second quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4% in the previous quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.6%, compared with an increase of 2.0%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.6%, compared with an increase of 2.1%.
  • Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital consumption adjustment) increased $78.2 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $65.0 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $6.1 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $16.5 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $83.0 billion, compared with an increase of $53.0 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $1.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $4.5 billion.
  • Personal income increased 0.2% in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased 0.2% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4%. Real DPI increased 0.2%, and real PCE increased 0.3%. The PCE price index increased 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.1%. The PCE price index increased 1.8% from a year ago, while the core (PCE excluding food and energy) price index increased 1.9%.
  • State personal income increased 4.0% on average in the third quarter of 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, state personal income increased 3.4%. Personal income increased in all states and the District of Columbia. The percent change in personal income across all states ranged from 6.2% in Nevada and Washington to 2.1% in Missouri.
  • The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $124.8 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2018 from $101.2 billion (revised) in the second quarter of 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit increased to 2.4% of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP), from 2.0% in the second quarter. The $23.6 billion increase in the current-account deficit reflected a $24.0 billion increase in the deficit on goods.

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