Key Economic Indicators – April 1, 2019

  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a 3.4% increase in the previous quarter, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the “initial” estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 2.6%.
  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.6% in the third quarter.
  • The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.9% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.0% in the third quarter
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7% in the fourth quarter, following a 1.8% increase in the third quarter.
  • Real GDP increased 2.9% in the year 2018, following an increase of 2.2% in 2017. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2% in 2018, compared with an increase of 1.9% in 2017.
  • Corporate profits from current production decreased $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter, after an increase of $78.2 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of $6.1 billion in the third quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $13.6 billion, compared with an increase of $83.0 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $1.9 billion, compared with an increase of $1.3 billion. In the fourth quarter, receipts increased $8.8 billion, and payments increased $6.9 billion. For the year 2018, profits from current production increased $163.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $64.3 billion in 2017.
  • Personal income increased 0.2%, in February, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.2% in January, after increasing 1.1% in December. The price index for personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.1% in January, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The price index excluding food and energy increased 0.1% in January, after a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The price index increased 1.4% from January 2018, while the index excluding food and energy increased 1.8%.
  • State personal income grew on average 4.5% in 2018, after increasing 4.4% in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth of state personal income ranged from 2.9% in Hawaii to 6.8% in Washington.
  • The U.S. current account deficit increased to $134.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018 from $126.6 billion in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The deficit increased to 2.6% of GDP in the final quarter of 2018, from 2.5% of GDP in the previous quarter. For the year 2018, the current account deficit was $488.5 billion, compared with $449.1 billion in 2017. The deficit was 2.4% of GDP in 2018, up from 2.3% of GDP in 2017.
  • In January international trade deficit was $51.1 billion, $8.8 billion less than the revised December figure. January exports were $207.3 billion, $1.9 billion more than December exports. January imports were $258.5 billion, less than $6.8 billion from December imports.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 5 thousand to 211 thousand in the week ending March 23. The 4-week moving average was 217.25 thousand, a decrease of 3.25 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending March 16 was 1,756 thousand, an increase of 13 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,751.25 thousand, a decrease of 4.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates dropped significantly. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.06% for the week ending March 28, down from last week when it averaged 4.28%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.40%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.57%, down from last week when it averaged 3.71%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.90%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 8.9% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending March 22nd.

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