Key Economic Indicators – September 2, 2019

  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the second quarter of 2019, according to the “second” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1%. In the advance estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 2.1% for the second quarter.
  • Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 3.0% in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.6% in the first quarter.
  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019, compared with an increase of 3.2% in the first quarter.
  • The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.1% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2% in the previous quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2% in the second quarter of 2019, compared with an increase of 0.8% in the previous quarter.
  • The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.3% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.4% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.7%, compared with an increase of 1.1%.
  • Corporate profits from current production increased $105.8 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $78.7 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $4.0 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of $22.2 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $43.5 billion, compared with a decrease of $108.2 billion in the previous quarter. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $58.3 billion, compared with an increase of $7.3 billion in the previous quarter.
  • Personal income increased 0.1% in July, and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.6%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in July, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The core index also increased 0.2% in July.  The headline index was up 1.4%, and the core index was up 1.6% from July 2018.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased 2.1%.  Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4%.  Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.4%.  Shipments decreased 1.1% in July. Year-to-date shipments increased 3.2% and new orders increased 0.3% from the same period a year ago.
  • Retail inventories for July were up 0.8% from the previous month, and were up 4.5% from July 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Wholesale inventories for July were up 0.2% from the previous month and were up 7.1% from a year ago.
  • The international trade deficit in goods was $72.3 billion in July, down $1.8 billion from $74.2 billion in June, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Exports of goods for July were $137.3 billion, $0.9 billion more than June exports. Imports of goods for July were $209.7 billion, $0.9 billion less than June imports.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 4 thousand to 215 thousand in the week ending August 24. The 4-week moving average was 214.5 thousand, a decrease of 0.5 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending August 17 was 1,698 thousand, an increase of 22 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,697.25 thousand, a decrease of 0.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • Unemployment rates were lower in July than a year earlier in 217 of the 389 metropolitan areas, higher in 141 areas, and unchanged in 31 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A total of 61 areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0% and 3 areas had rates of at least 10.0%. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 51 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in the remaining 338 areas.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that average fixed mortgage rates were little changed. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.58% for the week ending August 29, up from last week when it averaged 3.55%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.52%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.06%, up from the previous week when it averaged 3.03%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.97%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 6.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 23rd.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 89.8 in August, from 98.4 in July.  The Index was 96.2 a year ago. The Current Conditions Index decreased from 110.7 in July to 105.3 in August, while the Index of Consumer Expectations dropped down to 79.9 in August, from 90.5 in July.

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