Key Economic Indicators – December 16, 2019

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for November were up 0.2% from the previous month and were up 3.3% from November 2018. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, sales were up 0.1% from the previous month, and were up 3.0% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales and food services were up 3.4% from the same period of 2018.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for October were down 0.1% from the previous month and were down 0.1% from October 2018. Total business inventories were up 0.2% from the previous month, and were up 3.1% from a year ago. The inventories/sales ratio was 1.40, compared to 1.36 in October of 2018.
  • Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the second quarter ranged from 4.7% in Texas to 0.5% in Hawaii
  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) first official release of gross domestic product (GDP) by county for 2001-2018 was made available.  In 2018, real (inflation adjusted) GDP increased in 2,375 counties, decreased in 717, and was unchanged in 21 counties.  Real GDP ranged from $18.4 million in Issaquena County, Mississippi to $710.9 billion in Los Angeles County, California. Of the 141 large counties, those with populations greater than 500,000 in 2018, real GDP increased in 136 and decreased in 5.   Of the 464 medium-sized counties, those with populations between 100,000 and 500,000 in 2018, real GDP increased in 433, decreased in 30, and was unchanged in 1. Of the 2,508 small counties, those with populations less than 100,000 in 2018, real GDP increased in 1,806, decreased in 682, and was unchanged in 20.
  • Import prices increased 0.2% in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, following a 0.5% decrease in the previous month. Prices for imports decreased 1.3% from November 2018. The price index for exports increased 0.2% in November, after decreasing 0.1% in the previous month. Prices for exports decreased 1.3% over the past year.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) held steady in November, following an increase of 0.4% in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade also held steady, following an increase of 0.1% in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 1.1% from November 2018 to November 2019, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 1.3%.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.3% in November, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month.  The core index, all items less food and energy, increased 0.2%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.1% for the 12-month period ending in November. The core index rose 2.3% from a year ago.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from October to November. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3% in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 49 thousand to 252 thousand in the week ending December 7. The 4-week moving average was 224 thousand, an increase of 6.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending November 30 was 1,667 thousand, a decrease of 31 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,676, a decrease of 6.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average
  • Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.2% during the third quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output increased 2.3% and hours worked increased 2.5%. From the third quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019, productivity increased 1.5%, reflecting a 2.3% increase in output and a 0.9% increase in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 2.5% in the third quarter of 2019, reflecting a 2.3% increase in hourly compensation and a 0.2% decrease in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 2.2% over the last four quarters.

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