Key Economic Indicators – March 16, 2020

  • The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $118.4 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Domestic nonfinancial debt outstanding was $54.3 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019, of which household debt was $16.1 trillion, nonfinancial business debt was $16.1 trillion, and total government debt was $22.1 trillion.
  • Household debt increased at an annual rate of 4.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019, while nonfinancial business debt rose at an annual rate of 2.2%. Federal government debt increased 3.8% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2019, while state and local government debt expanded at an annual rate of 4.4%.
  • The import price index decreased 0.5% in February, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The export price index decreased 1.1% in February, following a 0.6% increase in the previous month. The import price index decreased 1.2% from February 2019 to February 2020, while export prices decreased 1.3%.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) decreased 0.6% in February, following an increase of 0.5% in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.1%, following an increase 0.4% as in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand (headline index) was up 1.3% from February 2019 to February 2020, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade was up 1.4%.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.1% in February, the same increase as in the previous month. The core index increased 0.2%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.3% for the 12-month period ending in February, while the core index rose 2.4%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3% from January to February. This result stems from a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 4 thousand to 211 thousand in the week ending March 7. The 4-week moving average was 214 thousand, an increase of 1.25 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending February 29 was 1,722 thousand, a decrease of 11 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,727.5 thousand, an increase of 5.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • U.S. selected services total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, was $4,127.1 billion, an increase of 1.0% from the third quarter of 2019 and up 4.6% from the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau,  The second quarter to third quarter percentage change was 1.5%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates generally moving higher. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.36% for the week ending March 12, up from last week when it averaged 3.29%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.31%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.77%, down slightly from last week when it averaged 2.79%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.76%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 55.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending March 6th.
  • The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for early March fell to 95.9, from 101.0 in February due to the spreading coronavirus and the steep declines in stock prices. The index was 98.4 a year ago. The Current Economic Conditions Index decreased from 114.8 in February to 112.5 in March, and the Index of Consumer Expectations decreased from 92.1 in February to 85.3 in March.
  • The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York made changes to monthly schedule of Treasury securities operations and repurchase agreement (repo) operations because of highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak. On March 12th and March 13th, the Desk offered a total of $1. 5 trillion in three-month and one-month repo operations. It was stated that “Three-month and one-month repo operations for $500 billion will be offered on a weekly basis for the remainder of the monthly schedule.  The Desk will continue to offer at least $175 billion in daily overnight repo operations and at least $45 billion in two-week term repo operations twice per week over this period.”
  • On Sunday, March 15th, the FOMC decided to lower the target range of federal funds rate to 0 to 0.25%.  The Committee “expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.  The Committee stated that “the coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States. Global financial conditions have also been significantly affected.”

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