Key Economic Indicators – April 13, 2020

  • The Federal Reserve continues to take additional actions to provide loans to support the economy. This funding will assist households, employers of all sizes, and bolster the ability of state and local governments to deliver critical services during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 261 thousand to 6,606 thousand in the week ending April 4. The 4-week moving average was 4,265.5 thousand, an increase of 1,598.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending March 28 was 7,455 thousand, an increase of 4,396 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 6,635 thousand in May of 2009. The 4-week moving average was 3,500 thousand, an increase of 1,439 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • The number of job openings was little changed at 6.9 million on the last business day of February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3% and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 1.2%.
  • Unemployment rates were lower in February than a year earlier in 277 of the 389 metropolitan areas, higher in 80 areas, and unchanged in 32 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In February, 34 metropolitan areas had year-over-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment, and 355 had essentially no change.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.8% from February to March. This result stems from a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.4% decrease in the consumer price index.
  • Retail trade, finance and insurance, and utilities were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. An increase in private services-producing industries was partly offset by a slight decrease in goods-producing industries; the government sector increased. Overall, 17 of 22 industry groups contributed to the 2.1% increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter. Real GDP increased 2.3% in the year 2019 (from the 2018 annual level to the 2019 annual level). The private goods- and services-producing sectors, as well as the government sector, contributed to the increase. Growth was widespread, with 20 of 22 industry groups contributing to the increase. Professional, scientific, and technical services; finance and insurance; and information were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP in 2019.
  • Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the fourth quarter ranged from 3.4% in Washington and Utah to negative 0.1% in West Virginia. Real GDP increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the year 2019. The percent change in real GDP ranged from 4.4% in Texas to 0.6% in Nebraska.
  • February sales of merchant wholesalers were down 0.8% from the previous month but were up 1.1% from a year ago. Inventories for February were down 0.7% from the previous month and were down 1.3% from a year ago. The February inventories/sales ratio was 1.31, compared with 1.34 in February 2019.
  • The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.2% in March, following a decrease of 0.6% in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.2% in March, following a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month.  The producer price index for final demand increased 0.7% from March 2019 to March 2020, while the index excluding foods, energy, and trade increased 1.0%.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) decreased 0.4% in March, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The core, all items less food and energy, index decreased 0.1%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.5% for the 12-month period ending in March, while the core index increased 2.1%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average mortgage rates were virtually unchanged. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.33% for the week ending April 9, unchanged from last week. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.12%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.77% for the week ending April 9, down from last week when it averaged 2.82%. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.60%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 17.9% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending April 3rd.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for April plunged 18.1 points to 71.0. The Index was 97.2 in April of last year. The Current Economic Conditions Index dropped to 72.4 in April, from 103.7 in March. The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased to 70.0 in April, from 79.7 in March.

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