• Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 5.0% in the first quarter of 2020, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1%. In the second estimate, released a month ago, the decrease in real GDP was also 5.0% for the first quarter. Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) decreased 3.5% in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.1% in the final quarter of 2019.
  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 4.4% in the first quarter of 2020, compared with an increase of 3.1% in the final quarter of 2019. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, decreased 4.7% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7% in the first quarter of 2020, compared with an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.3%, compared with an increase of 1.4%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.7%, compared with an increase of 1.3%.
  • Corporate profits from current production decreased $262.8 billion in the first quarter of 2020, after an increase of $53.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $37.5 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $0.7 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $181.8 billion, compared with an increase of $53.7 billion in the previous quarter. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $43.5 billion in the first quarter, following a decrease of $1.4 billion.
  • Personal income decreased 4.2% in May, following a 10.8% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures increased 8.2%, after a 12.6% decrease in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Real disposable personal income decreased 5.0% in May, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 8.1%. The savings rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, was 23.2% in May, down from 32.2% in April. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1% in May, after a decrease of 0.5% in April. The core index increased 0.1%, following a 0.4% decrease in the previous month. The price index for personal consumption expenditures was up 0.5% from May 2019, while the core index was up 1.0%. BEA stated: “The May estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments continued but were at a lower level than in April, and government “stay-at-home” orders were partially lifted in May. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate for May because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.”
  • State personal income increased 2.3% at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2020, a deceleration from the 3.6% increase in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in personal income across all states ranged from 4.9% in New Mexico to negative 0.3% in Michigan.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased 15.8%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, following a 18.1% April decrease.  Excluding transportation, new orders increased 4.0%.  Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5%.  New orders for transportation equipment increased 80.7%. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May increased 4.4%, following a 18.6% decrease in April. Year-to-date, new orders decreased 13.6% from the same period, in 2019, while shipments decreased 11.3%.
  • Retail inventories for May, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $604.5 billion, down 6.1% from April 2020, and were down 9.5% from May 2019.
  • Wholesale inventories for May, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $642.2 billion, down 1.2% from April 2020, and were down 4.3% from May 2019.
  • The international trade deficit was 74.3 billion in May, up $3.6 billion from $70.7 billion in April.  Exports of goods for May were $90.1 billion, $5.5 billion less than April exports. Imports of goods for May were $164.4 billion, $1.9 billion less than April imports.
  • U.S. house prices rose 0.2% in April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI).  House prices rose 5.5% from April 2019 to April 2020.  For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from March 2020 to April 2020 ranged from negative 0.5% in the South Atlantic division to 0.8% in the West South Central division.  The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from 5.0% in the Middle Atlantic division to +6.8% in the Mountain division.
  • Sales of new single-family houses in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676 thousand, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.  This is 16.6% above the figure for April and is 12.7% above the May 2019 level. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 318 thousand.  This represents a supply of 5.6 months at the current sales rate, compared with 6.7 months in May 2019. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2020 was $317.9 thousand, up 1.7% from May 2019.  The average sales price was $368.8 thousand, down 2.7% from a year ago.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates were virtually unchanged. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.13% for the week ending June 25, unchanged from last week. A year-ago, the 30-year rate was 3.73%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.59%, up slightly from last week when it averaged 2.58%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year rate averaged 3.16%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 8.7% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 19, 2020.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 60 thousand to 1,480 thousand in the week ending June 20. The 4-week moving average was 1,620.75 thousand, a decrease of 160.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 13 was 19,522 thousand, a decrease of 767 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 20,421.25 thousand, a decrease of 329.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 13.4% for the week ending June 13, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.  This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
  • Labor productivity declines were widespread among manufacturing industries in 2019, with decreases in 54 of the 86 four-digit NAICS industries. Of the 51 industries in durable manufacturing, 31 had productivity decreases in 2019 led by a 7.8% decline in the productivity of the HVAC and commercial refrigeration equipment industry. Nondurable manufacturing also had widespread declines in 2019 with productivity falling in 23 of 35 industries, led by a 13.1% decline in the other leather products industry. All four industries in the mining sector posted productivity declines in 2019 led by the coal mining industry with a decrease of 6.6%.
  • In 2019, 24% of employed persons did some or all of their work at home on days they worked, and 82% of employed persons did some or all of their work at their workplace, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On average, those who worked at their workplace worked for 7.9 hours, and those who worked at home did so for 3.3 hours. On an average day, 85 percent of women and 71 percent of men spent some time doing household activities, such as housework, cooking, lawn care, or household management. On an average day, 22 percent of men did housework—such as cleaning or laundry— compared with 46 percent of women.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey for June indicate continued weakness in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues showed positive readings for the first time since February. However, the new orders and employment indexes remained negative despite posting large gains from last month. The respondents expect overall improvement in conditions over the next six months, as both future activity indexes rose well into positive territory.
  • The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June was 78.1, up from 72.3 in May. The index was 98.2 in June of 2019. The current economic conditions component was 87.1 in June, compared with 82.3 in May. The index of consumer expectations increased to 72.3 in June, from 65.9 in May.
  • There were over 9,635,935 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 489,922 deaths, and 4,861,715 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 6/26/2020, 9:15 EST). In the United States, there were 2,422,312 confirmed cases, 124,415 deaths, and 663,562 thousand recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.

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