Key Economic Indicators – August 17, 2020

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for July were up 1.2% from the previous month and were up 2.7% from July 2019. Year-to-date, retail sales were down 2.1% from the same period a year ago.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for June were up 8.4% from the previous month, and inventories were down 1.1%. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of June was 1.37, compared with 1.39 in June 2019.
  • Total Industrial production increased 3.0% in July, following a 5.7% increase in the previous month. The index of industrial production in July was 8.2% below its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 70.6%, 9.2 percentage points below its 1972-2019 average, and 6.8 percentage points below its level in July 2019.
  • The import price index increased 0.7% in July, following a 1.4% increase in the previous month. The export price index increased 0.8%, following a 1.2% increase in the previous month. The import price index decreased 3.3% from July 2019, while export prices decreased 4.4%.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.6% in July, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month.  The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.3%, the same increase as in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.4% for the 12 months ended in July. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.1% during the same period.
  • The consumer price index increased 0.6% in July, the same increase as in the previous month. The core index increased 0.6%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index (headline index) increased 1.0% for the 12-month period ending in July, and the core index rose 1.6%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4% from June to July. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings being more than offset by a 0.6% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
  • Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 7.3% in the second quarter of 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output decreased 38.9% and hours worked decreased 43.0%. From the second quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020, productivity increased 2.2%, reflecting an 11.8% decrease in output and a 13.7% decrease in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 12.2% in the second quarter of 2020 and increased 5.7% over a year ago.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 228 thousand to 963 thousand in the week ending August 8. The 4-week moving average was 1,252.75 thousand, a decrease of 86.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending August 1 was 15,486 thousand, a decrease of 604 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 16,169.5 thousand, a decrease of 454.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 10.6% for the week ending August 1, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.  This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moved up. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.96% for the week ending August 13, up from last week when it averaged 2.88%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.60%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.46%, up from last week when it averaged 2.44%. year ago, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.07%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 5.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 31st.

 

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