Key Economic Indicators – October 12, 2020

  • The goods & services deficit was $67.1 billion in August, up $3.7 billion from $63.4 billion in July, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. August exports were $171.9 billion, $3.6 billion more than July exports. August imports were $239.0 billion, $7.4 billion more than July imports. The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $3.0 billion to $83.9 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.7 billion to $16.8 billion. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $22.6 billion, or 5.7%, from the same period in 2019. Exports decreased $296.1 billion or 17.6% and imports decreased $273.5 billion or 13.1%.
  • State personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 3.9% in 2019, a deceleration from the 4.9% increase in 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in PCE across all states ranged from 5.7% in Utah to 1.8% in Vermont. Expenditures on housing and utilities, and on health care grew 4.3% and 4.5%, respectively, and were the leading contributors to growth nationally.
  • The number of job openings was little changed at 6.5 million on the last business day of August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hires were little changed at 5.9 million in August. Total separations decreased to 4.6 million. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.0% while the layoffs and discharges rate decreased to a series low of 1.0%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 9 thousand to 840 thousand in the week ending October 3. The 4-week moving average was 857 thousand, a decrease of 13.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending September 26 was 10,976 thousand, a decrease of 1,003 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 12,112.25 thousand, a decrease of 642 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 7.5% for the week ending September 26, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “In response to recommendations resulting from an internal review of state operations, the state of California has announced a two week pause in its processing of initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits. The state will use this time to reduce its claims processing backlog and implement fraud prevention technology. Recognizing that the pause will likely result in significant week to week swings in initial claims for California and the nation unrelated to any changes in economic conditions, California’s initial claims published in the UI Claims News Release will reflect the level reported during the last week prior to the pause. Upon completion of the pause and the post-pause processing, the state will submit revised reports to reflect claims in the week during which they were filed.”
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates were little changed. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.87% for the week ending October 8, slightly down from last week when it averaged 2.88%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.57%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.37%, slightly up from last week when it averaged 2.36. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.05%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 4.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 2,2020.
  • There were 36,883,768 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 1,068,198 deaths, and 25,663,552 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 10/10/2020, 3:20 EST). In the United States, there are 7,664,676 confirmed cases, 213,787 deaths, and 3,039,089 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.

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