- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 33.1% in the third quarter of 2020, according to the “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) . In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4%. BEA stated: “The increase in third quarter GDP reflected continued efforts to reopen businesses and resume activities that were postponed or restricted due to COVID-19. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.”
- Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 25.5% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 28.1% in the previous quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4% in the third quarter, compared with a decrease of 1.4% in the previous quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.7%, compared with a decrease of 1.6% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5%, compared with a decrease of 0.8%.
- Personal income increased 0.9% in September according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income increased 0.9% and personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4%. Real disposable personal income increased 0.7% in September, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.2%. The personal consumption expenditures price index (headline index) and the core index both increased 0.2% in September. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.4% from September 2019, while the core index also increased 1.5%. BEA stated: “The September estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments slowed, as pandemic-related assistance programs continued to wind down. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.”
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 40 thousand to 751 thousand in the week ending October 24. The 4-week moving average was 787.75 thousand, a decrease of 24.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending October 17 was 7,756 thousand, a decrease of 709 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 9,053.25 thousand, a decrease of 1,055.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.3% for the week ending October 17, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate.
- Unemployment rates were higher in September than a year earlier in 388 of the 389 metropolitan areas and lower in 1 area, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A total of 73 areas had jobless rates of less than 5.0% and 31 areas had rates of at least 10.0%. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased over the year in 251 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 138 areas. The national unemployment rate in September was 7.7%, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.3% a year earlier.
- Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5%, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages and salaries increased 0.4% and benefit costs increased 0.6% from June 2020. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.4% for the 12-month period ending in September 2020 and increased 2.8% in September 2019. Wages and salaries increased 2.5% over the year and increased 2.9% for the 12-month period ending in September 2019.
- From December 2019 to March 2020, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 7.0 million, a decrease of 901,000 jobs from the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 7.7 million, an increase of 685,000 jobs from the previous quarter. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses yielded a net employment loss of 773,000 jobs in the private sector during the first quarter of 2020.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average mortgage rates remained relatively flat. 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 2.81% for the week ending October 29, up slightly from last week when it averaged 2.80%. A year ago, the 30-year rate was 3.78%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.32%, down slightly from last week when it averaged 2.33%. A year ago, the 15-year rate was 3.19%.
- Mortgage applications increased 1.7% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 23,2020.
- There were 45,629,082 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 1,189,515 deaths, and 29,712,661 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 10/31/2020, 5:00 EST). In the United States, there are 9,047,637 confirmed cases, 229,708 deaths, and 3,578,452 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
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