• Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 33.1% in the third quarter of 2020, according to the “second” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) . In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4%. The GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month that also showed an increase in real GDP of 33.1%. With the second estimate, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and exports were offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up.
  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 25.5% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 32.6% in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 29.2% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 32.0% in the second quarter.
  • Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 25.6% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 28.1% in the previous quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.3% in the third quarter, compared with a decrease of 1.4% in the previous quarter.  The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.7%, compared with a decrease of 1.6% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5%, compared with a decrease of 0.8%.
  • Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $495.3 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $208.9 billion in the second quarter. Profits from current production were impacted by provisions from the Paycheck Protection Program. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $24.5 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $26.5 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $431.2 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $145.9 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $39.6 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $89.5 billion. In the third quarter, receipts increased $97.5 billion, and payments increased $57.9 billion.
  • Personal income decreased 0.7% in October, following a 0.7% increase in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income decreased 0.8% and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. Real disposable personal income decreased 0.8% in October, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. The personal consumption expenditures price index (headline index) and the core index both held steady in October. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.2% from October 2019, while the core index increased 1.4%. BEA stated: “The October estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments slowed as pandemic-related assistance programs continued to wind down. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.”
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased 1.3%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3%.  Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.2%.  Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October also increased 1.3%. Excluding transportation, shipments increased 2.0%.  Excluding defense, shipments increased 1.1%.  Year-to-date, new orders decreased 9.1% and shipments decreased 6.7% from the same period a year ago.
  • The international trade deficit was $80.3 billion in October, up $0.9 billion from $79.4 billion in September, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Exports of goods for October were $126.0 billion, $3.4 billion more than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $206.3 billion, $4.4 billion more than September imports.
  • Retail inventories for October were up 0.8% from September but were down 8.5% from October 2019.
  • Wholesale inventories for October were up 0.9% from September but were up 2.7% from October 2019.
  • Sales of new single-family houses in October 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999 thousand, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3% below the revised September rate of 1,002 thousand but is 41.5% above the October 2019 estimate of 706 thousand. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2020 was $330.6 thousand and the average sales price was $386.2 thousand. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 278 thousand. This represents a supply of 3.3 months at the current sales rate, compared with 5.5 months in October 2019.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates hold steady heading into the Thanksgiving Holiday. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.72% for the week ending November 25, unchanged from last week. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.68%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.28%, unchanged from last week. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.15%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 3.9% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 20, 2020.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 30 thousand to 778 thousand in the week ending November 21. The 4-week moving average was 748.5 thousand, an increase of 5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending November 14 was 6,071 thousand, a decrease of 299 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 6,615.25 thousand, a decrease of 438 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.1% for the week ending November 14, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 76.9 in November, from 81.8 in October. The Index was 96.8 in November of 2019. The Current Conditions Index increased from 85.9 in October to 87.0 in November, while The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased from 79.2 to 70.5.
  • There were 60,641,673 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 1,426,394 deaths, and 38,882,736 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 11/26/2020, 12:30 EST). In the United States, there are 12,795,581 confirmed cases, 262,446 deaths, and 4,835,956 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.

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