Key Economic Indicators – October 30, 2017

·       Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in the third quarter of 2017, according to the “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 3.1%.

·       Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 2.3% in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.9% in the previous quarter.

·       The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2% in the third quarter of 2017, compared with an increase of 1.0% in the previous quarter. 

·       The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.5%, compared with an increase of 0.3%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.3%, compared with an increase of 0.9%.

·       New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 2.2% in September, while shipments increased 1.0%. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7%, while shipments increased 0.8%. Year-to-date new orders were up 5.2% from the same period a year ago, while shipments were up 3.4%. 

·       Retail inventories for September were down 1.0% from the previous month, but were up 2.1% from September 2016, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  

·       Wholesale inventories for September were up 0.3% from the previous month, and were up 4.6% from a year ago. 

·       The international trade deficit in goods was $64.1 billion in September, up $0.8 billion from $63.3 billion in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Exports of goods for September were $129.6 billion, $0.9 billion more than August exports. Imports of goods for September were $193.7 billion, $1.7 billion more than August imports.

·       September new home sales increased 18.9% to an annualized rate of 667 thousand units. The September figure was 17.0% above the September 2016 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold was $319.7 thousand, 1.6% above September 2016.

·       The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, held steady at 106.0 in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. The index is now 3.5% below September 2016.

·       U.S. house prices increased 0.7% in August, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA). For the 12 months ending in August, U.S. house prices rose 6.6%. 

·       The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average mortgage rates hitting their highest marks since July. 30-year fixedrate mortgage averaged 3.94% for the week ending October 26, up from last week when it averaged 3.88%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year rate was 3.47%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.25%, up from last week when it averaged 3.19%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year rate was 2.78%.

·       Mortgage applications decreased 4.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 20th. 

·       The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 10 thousand to 233 thousand in the week ending October 21. The 4-week moving average was 239.5 thousand, a decrease of 9 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending October 14 was 1,893 thousand, a decrease of 3 thousand from the previous week’s revised level.  This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 29, 1973 when it was 1,805 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 1,903.5 thousand, a decrease of 4.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 12, 1974 when it was 1,881 thousand.

·       The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for October increased to 100.7, from 95.1 in September. The Index was 87.2 in October 2016. 

·       The Chicago FED National Activity Index (NAI) increased to 0.17 in September, from negative 0.37 in August. The Index was negative 0.04 in September of 2016. The index’s 3-month moving average held steady at negative 0.16 in September. 

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