Key Economic Indicators – November 6, 2017

  • Total non-farm payroll employment increased 261 thousand in October, following an increase of 18 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 252 thousand in October, while government employment increased by 9 thousand. Employment in food services and drinking places increased sharply, mostly offsetting a decline in September that largely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. In October, job gains also occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care.
  • The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% in October, from 4.2% in September. The unemployment rate was 4.8% in October 2016.
  • The number of unemployed decreased by 281 thousand to 6.520 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 112 thousand to 1.621 million and accounted for 24.8% of the unemployed.
  • The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 62.7% in October, but has shown little movement over the past 12 months.
  • The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
  • In October, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by a cent to $26.53. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.4%.
  • Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7%, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.5% for the 12-month period ending in September 2017. In September 2016, compensation costs increased 2.3%. Wages and salaries increased 2.5% for the 12-month period ending in September 2017, while benefit costs increased 2.4%.
  • Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.0% during the third quarter of 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output increased 3.8% and hours worked increased 0.8%. From the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017, productivity increased 1.5%, reflecting a 2.9% increase in output and a 1.4% increase in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 0.5% in the third quarter of 2017, reflecting a 3.5% increase in hourly compensation and a 3.0% increase in productivity. Unit labor costs decreased 0.1% over the last four quarters.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 5 thousand to 229 thousand in the week ending October 28. The 4-week moving average was 232.5 thousand, a decrease of 7.25 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 7, 1973 when it was 232.25 thousand. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending October 21 was 1,884 thousand, a decrease of 15 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 29, 1973 when it was 1,805 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 1,895.75 thousand, a decrease of 9.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 12, 1974 when it was 1,881 thousand.
  • Unemployment rates were lower in September than a year earlier in 345 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 33 areas, and unchanged in 10 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sixty-four areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0% and two areas had rates of at least 10.0%. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 309 metropolitan areas, decreased in 72 areas, and was unchanged in 7 areas.
  • According to gross domestic product (GDP) by industry statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 17 of 22 industry groups contributed to the overall 3.1% increase in real GDP in the second quarter. Mining, professional, scientific, and technical services, and health care and social assistance were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the second quarter of 2017.
  • Personal income increased 0.4% in September according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income increased 0.4% and personal consumption expenditures increased 1.0%. Real disposable personal income decreased less than 0.1% in September, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.6%. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.4%, while the core index (excluding food and energy) increased 0.1%. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.6% from September 2016, while the core index increased 1.3%.
  • Sales of domestic cars decreased 4.5% in October, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales decreased 2.6%. Total vehicle sales were 18.0 million units in October, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.3 million in January 2017, and 17.8 million in October of 2016.
  • New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.4% in September, while shipments increased 0.8%. Year-to-date, new orders were up 5.6%, while shipments were up 4.7%.
  • The international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $43.5 billion in September from $42.8 billion in August (revised), as exports increased to $196.8 billion and imports increased to $240.3 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • September construction spending was up 0.3% from the previous month, and was up 2.0% from a year ago. Residential construction increased less than 0.1%, while nonresidential construction increased 0.5%. Total private construction decreased 0.4% in September, while total public construction increased 2.6%.
  • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.1% annual gain in August, up from 5.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.3%, up from 5.2% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.9% year-over-year gain, up from 5.8% the previous month.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates held relatively flat for the week ending November 2nd. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.94% for the week ending November 2, unchanged from last week. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.27%, up slightly from the previous week when it averaged 3.25%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 2.6% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 27, 2017.
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved marginally in September, increased again in October. The Index now stands at 125.9 (1985=100), up from 120.6 in September. The Present Situation Index increased from 146.9 to 151.1, while the Expectations Index rose from 103.0 to 109.1.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in October, and the overall economy grew for the 101st consecutive month.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey indicated that economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October, for the 94th consecutive month.

 

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