Key Economic Indicators – November 11, 2019

  • Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the second quarter ranged from 4.7% in Texas to 0.5% in Hawaii. Professional, scientific, and technical services; government; real estate and rental and leasing; and mining were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP nationally. Mining increased 23.5% for the nation and was the leading contributor to the increases in Texas, Wyoming, Alaska, and New Mexico—the fastest growing states.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.2% in September, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Shipments for manufactured durable goods decreased 0.2% in September, following a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. Year-to-date, new orders decreased 0.3%, while shipments increased 1.1%.
  • Sales of merchant wholesalers for September were virtually unchanged from the previous month, and were down 0.6% a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Inventories decreased 0.4% in September, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The inventories/sales ratio was 1.36 in September, compared with 1.29 a year ago.
  • The goods and services deficit was $52.5 billion in September, down $2.6 billion from $55.0 billion in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. September exports were $206.0 billion, $1.8 billion less than August exports. September imports were $258.4 billion, $4.4 billion less than August imports. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit was $481.3 billion, up $24.8 billion from the same period in 2018.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 211 thousand in the week ending November 2, a decrease of 8 thousand from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 215.25 thousand, an increase of 0.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.3% in the third quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output increased 2.1% and hours worked increased 2.4%. From the third quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019, productivity increased 1.4%, reflecting a 2.3% increase in output and a 0.9% increase in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 3.6% in the third quarter of 2019, reflecting a 3.3% increase in compensation per hour and a 0.3% decline in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 3.1% over the last four quarters.
  • The number of jobs openings edged down to 7.0 million on the last business day of September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 4.8 million, respectively.
  • There were 2.8 million nonfatal workplace injuries and illnesses reported by private industry employers in 2018, unchanged from 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The incidence rate for total recordable cases in private industry also remained unchanged from a year ago. This is the first year since 2012 that the total recordable cases rate did not decline.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates moving lower. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.69% for the week ending November 7, down from last week when it averaged 3.78%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.94%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.13%, down from last week when it averaged 3.19%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 4.33%.
  • Mortgage applications edged down 0.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 1st.

 

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