Key Economic Indicators – November 18, 2019

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for October were up 0.3% from September, and were up 3.1% from October 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales were up 0.2% from September, and were up 2.8% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 3.4% from the first 10 months of 2018.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for September were down 0.2% from August, while inventories were up less than 0.1%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.40, compared with 1.36 in September 2018.
  • Total Industrial production decreased 0.8% in October, following a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. Total industrial production in October was 1.1% below its level a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization decreased 0.8 percentage point to 76.7%, 3.1 percentage points below its 1972-2018 average.
  • The import price index decreased 0.5% in October, while the export price index decreased 0.1%. The import price index decreased 3.0% from October 2018 to October 2019, while the price index for exports decreased 2.2%.
  • The producer price index for total final demand increased 0.4% in October, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.1%. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.1% from October 2018 to October 2019, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 1.5%.
  • The consumer price index increased 0.4% in October, after holding steady in the previous month. The core index increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.8% for the 12-month period ending in October, while the core index rose 2.3%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2% from September to October. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.4% increase in the consumer price index.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 225 thousand in the week ending November 9, an increase of 14 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 217 thousand, an increase of 1.75 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • Personal income increased in 3,019 counties, decreased in 91, and was unchanged in 3 in 2018, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Personal income increased 5.7% in the metropolitan portion of the United States and increased 4.8% in the nonmetropolitan portion in 2018. The change in personal income ranged from negative 3.2% in Lynn County, Texas to 17.5% in Midland County, Texas in 2018.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates picked up last week. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.75% for the week ending November 14th, up from last week when it averaged 3.69%.  A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.94%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.20% for the week ending November 14th, up from last week when it averaged 3.13%.  A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.36%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 9.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 8th.
  • The November 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity was little changed in New York State. The headline index edged down 1.1 points to 2.9. The prices paid index decreased 2.6 points, while the prices received index decreased 0.1 point.

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