- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.1%. Real final sales of domestic product increased 3.2%, following a 2.1% increase in the previous quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5% in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter. The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 1.6%, compared with an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.3%, compared with an increase of 2.1% in the previous quarter.
- Real GDP increased 2.3% in the year 2019, compared with an increase of 2.9% in 2018. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.6% in 2019, compared to an increase of 2.4% in 2018. Current-dollar GDP increased 4.1% in 2019 to a level of $21.429 trillion, compared with an increase of 5.4% in 2018.
- Personal income increased 0.2%, in December, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%, after increasing 0.4% in the previous month. Real disposable income decreased 0.1% in December, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1%. The personal saving rate, personal saving as percentage of disposable income, was 7.6%, compared with 7.8 in November.
- Personal income increased 4.5% in the year 2019. Disposable personal income increased 4.4% in the year 2019, while personal consumption expenditures increased 4.0%. The saving rate was 8.0% for the year 2019, compared with 7.7 in the year 2018.
- The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% in December, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The price index excluding food and energy increased 0.2%, after a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The price index increased 1.6% from December 2018, while the index excluding food and energy also increased 1.6%.
- New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 2.4% in December, while shipments decreased 0.2%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. New orders in the year 2019 were down 1.5% from 2018, while shipments were up 0.9%.
- Retail inventories for December, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $661.2 billion, up less than 0.1% from November 2019, and were up 1.2% from December 2018.
- Wholesale inventories for December, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $675.6 billion, down 0.1% from November 2019, but were up 2.3% from December 2018.
- The international trade deficit was $68.3 billion in December, up $5.3 billion from $63.0 billion in November, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exports of goods for December were $137.0 billion, $0.4 billion more than November exports. Imports of goods for December were $205.3 billion, $5.8 billion more than November imports.
- December new home sales decreased 0.4% to an annualized rate of 694 thousand units. The December figure was 23.0% above the December 2018 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold was $384.5 thousand, 8.5% above December 2018. Sales were 681 thousand units in the year 2019, 10.3% above the previous year.
- U.S. House prices rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from October to November, after increasing 0.4% in the previous period, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in November, U.S. prices rose 4.9%.
- National vacancy rates in the fourth quarter 2019 were 6.4% for rental housing and 1.4% for homeowner housing, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The rental vacancy rate of 6.4% was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2018 (6.6%), but 0.4 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2019 (6.8%). The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.4% was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2018 (1.5%) and virtually unchanged from the rate in the third quarter 2019.
- The home-ownership rate of 65.1% was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2018 (64.8%) nor from the rate in the third quarter 2019 (also 64.8%).
- In the fourth quarter 2019, the median asking rent for vacant for rent units was $1,005. In the fourth quarter 2019, the median asking sales price for vacant for sale units was $226,800.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates continued their downward movement. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.51% for the week ending January 30, down from last week when it averaged 3.60%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.46%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.00% for the week ending January 30, down from last week when it averaged 3.04%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.89%.
- Mortgage applications increased 7.2% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 24,2020.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased by 7 thousand to 216 thousand in the week ending January 25. The 4-week moving average was 214.5 thousand, a decrease of 1.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7%, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages and salaries increased 0.7% and benefit costs increased 0.5% from September 2019. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.7% for the 12-month period ending in December 2019, compared to 2.9% in December 2018. Wages and salaries increased 2.9% over the year and increased 3.1% for the 12-month period ending in December 2018. Benefit costs increased 2.2% for the 12-month period ending in December 2019. In December 2018, the increase was 2.8%.
- From March 2019 to June 2019, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 7.6 million, an increase of 230 thousand jobs from the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 7.4 million, an increase of 573 thousand jobs from the previous quarter. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses yielded a net employment gain of 182 thousand jobs in the private sector during the second quarter of 2019.
- Manufacturing sector multi-factor productivity declined 1.0% in 2018, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The multi-factor productivity decline in 2018 reflected a 0.6% decrease in sectoral output and a 0.3% increase in combined inputs. The decrease in multi-factor productivity followed a revised 0.3% increase in 2017.
- The Chicago FED National Activity Index decreased to negative 0.35 in December, from positive 0.41 in November. The index’s three-month moving average was negative 0.23, compared with negative 0.31 in November.
- The Chicago FED National Financial Conditions index (NFCI) ticked down to negative 0.82 in the week ending January 24. Risk indicators contributed negative 0.34, credit indicators contributed negative 0.33, and leverage indicators contributed negative 0.15 to the index in the latest week.
- The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased in January, following a moderate increase in December. The Index now stands at 131.6 (1985=100), up from 128.2 in December. The Present Situation Index increased from 170.5 to 175.3. The Expectations Index increased from 100.0 last month to 102.5 this month.
- The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for January was 99.8, up slightly from 99.3 in December. The Index was 91.2 in January 2019. The Current Economic Conditions Index decreased from 115.5 in December to 114.4 in January, while the Index of Consumer Expectations increased from 88.9 to 90.5.
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1.50% to 1.75%. The Committee indicated that labor market conditions remained strong and economic activity continued to expand at a moderate rate. “The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”
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