Key Economic Indicators – February 10, 2020

  • Total non-farm payroll employment increased 225 thousand in January, following an increase of 147 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 206 thousand in January, while government employment increased by 19 thousand. Notable job gains occurred in construction, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.
  • The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6% in January, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 139 thousand to 5.892 million. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 4.0%, and the number of unemployed persons was 6.516 million
  • The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 20 thousand to 1.166 million and accounted for 19.9% of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed declined by 93 thousand.
  • The labor force participation was 63.4% in January, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month and from January 2019.
  • The average workweek of all employees on private non-farm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in January.
  • In January, average hourly earnings of all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 7 cents to $28.44. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 3.1%.
  • Unemployment rates were lower in December than a year earlier in 266 of the 389 metropolitan areas, higher in 101 areas, and unchanged in 22 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A total of 136 areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0% and 3 areas had rates of at least 10.0%. Non-farm payroll employment increased over the year in 45 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 344 areas.
  • Non-farm business sector labor productivity increased 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output increased 2.5% and hours worked increased 1.1%.  From the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2019, productivity increased 1.8%, reflecting a 2.7% increase in output and a 0.9% increase in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the non-farm business sector increased 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019 as hourly compensation grew at a faster rate (2.8%) than productivity (1.4%). Unit labor costs increased 2.4% over the last four quarters. Annual average productivity increased 1.7% from 2018 to 2019, as output increased 2.7% and hours worked increased 1.0%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased by 15 thousand to 202 thousand in the week ending February 1. The 4-week moving average was 211.75 thousand, a decrease of 3 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending January 25 was 1,751 thousand, an increase of 48 thousand from the previous week’s level of 1,703 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 1,742.25 thousand, a decrease of 13.25 thousand from the previous week’s  average of 1,755.5 thousand.
  • New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.8% in December, following a 1.2% decrease in November. Shipments increased 0.5%, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. Inventories were up 0.5% from the previous month. New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.6% in the year 2019 and shipments increased 0.6%.
  • Sales of domestic cars decreased 9.6% in January, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales increased 1.2%. Total vehicle sales were 16.8 million units in January, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 16.7 million in January 2019 and 17.1 million in January 2018.
  • In December international trade deficit was $48.9 billion, $5.2 billion more than the revised November figure. December exports were $209.6 billion, $1.5 billion more than November exports. December imports were $258.5 billion, $6.7 billion more than November imports.
  • For 2019, the goods and services deficit decreased $10.9 billion, or 1.7%, from 2018. Exports decreased $1.5 billion or 0.1%. Imports decreased $12.5 billion or 0.4%. As a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product, the goods and services deficit were 2.9% in 2019, down from 3.0% in 2018.
  • Construction spending in December 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,327.9 billion, 0.2% below the revised November estimate. The December figure is 5.0% above the December 2018 figure. Private Construction decreased 0.1% in December, while public construction decreased 0.4%.  Construction spending for the year 2019 was 0.3% below the spending in 2018.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates moving lower. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.45% for the week ending February 6, down from last week when it averaged 3.51%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.41%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.97% for the week ending February 6, down from last week when it averaged 3.00%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.84%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 5.0% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 31, 2020.

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