Key Economic Indicators – February 17, 2020

  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for January were up 0.3% from the previous month and were up 4.4% from January 2019. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales increased 0.3% from the previous month, and were up 4.0% from a year ago.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales decreased 0.1% in December, while inventories increased 0.1%. Sales were up 1.7% from a year ago, and inventories were up 2.2% from December 2018. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of December was 1.40, compared with 1.39 in December 2018.
  • Total Industrial production decreased 0.3% in January, following a 0.4% decrease in the previous month. Total Industrial production was 0.8% lower in January than it was a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 76.8%, a level 3.0 percentage points below its 1972-2019 average, and 2.2 percentage points below its level in January 2019.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed-rate mortgages moving slightly higher. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.47% for the week ending February 13th, slightly up from last week when it averaged 3.45%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.37%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.97% for the week ending February 13th, unchanged from last week. A year ago, at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.81%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 1.1% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 7, 2020.
  • The import price index held steady in January, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Import prices increased 0.3% from January 2019 to January 2020. The export price index increased 0.7% in January, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. Export prices increased 0.5% from January 2019 to January 2020.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.1% in January, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month.  The core index, all items less food and energy, increased 0.2% in January, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.5% for the 12-month period ending in January, while the core index rose 2.3%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1% from December to January. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1% in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
  • The number of job openings decreased to 6.4 million on the last business day of December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 2 thousand to 205 thousand in the week ending February 8. The 4-week moving average was 212 thousand, unchanged from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending February 1 was 1,698 thousand, a decrease of 61 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,726.75 thousand, a decrease of 17.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for February was 100.9, up from 99.8 in January. The index was 93.8 in February of 2019. The current economic conditions component was 113.8 in early February, compared with 114.4 in January. The index of consumer expectations increased to 92.6 in February, from 90.5 in January.

 

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