Archive for October, 2014

Key Economic Indicators – November 3, 2014

Friday, October 31st, 2014
  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2014, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, after increasing 4.6% in the previous quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3% in the third quarter, compared to an increase of 2.0% in the previous quarter.
  • Personal income increased 0.2% in September, while personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.2%. Real disposable personal income increased less than 0.1%, while real personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.2%.
  • The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1% in September, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The price index (headline index) was up 1.4% from September 2013, while the core index was up 1.5%.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.3% in September, following an 18.3% decrease in the previous month, according to the Census Bureau. Shipments increased 0.1% in September, following a 1.8% decrease in the previous month. Year-to-date, new orders were up 7.6% from the same period a year ago, while shipments were up 5.0%
  • The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, increased 0.3% in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. The index was up 1.0% from September 2013.
  • The S & P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Indices continued to show deceleration in home price gains. The index posted an annual increase of 5.1% in August, compared with 5.6% in July. As of August 2014, average home prices are back to their levels posted in the spring of 2005.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 30th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving higher. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.98% for the week ending October 30, up from last week when it averaged 3.92%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 6.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 24th.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 3 thousand to 287 thousand in the week ending October 25, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average was 281 thousand, a decrease of 0.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • The Employment Cost Index for total compensation rose 0.7%, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending September 2014, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.2% for the 12-month period ending September 2014.
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had decreased in September, rebounded in October. The index now stands at 94.5 (1985=100), up from 89.0 in September.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose in October to its highest level since July 2007. The index stands at 86.9 in October, up from 84.6 in September.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25%, and indicated that it will be appropriate to maintain this rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program by this month.

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Key Economic Indicators – October 27, 2014

Sunday, October 26th, 2014
  • September existing home sales were up 2.4% from the previous month, but were down 1.7% from September 2013, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $209.7 thousand, 5.6% above September 2013.
  • September new home sales were up 0.2% from the previous month, and were up 17.0% from September 2013 figure, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The median sales price of new houses sold was $259.0 thousand, 4.0% below September 2013.
  • U.S. House prices rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July to August, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in August, house prices rose 4.8%. The index is 5.8% below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the August 2005 index level.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 23rd showed average fixed mortgage rates declining for the second consecutive week. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.92% for the week ending October 23rd, down from last week when it averaged 3.97%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 5.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 10th.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.1% in September, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core index, which held steady in August, increased 0.1% in September. The consumer price index (headline) and the core index both increased 1.7% for the 12-month period ending in September.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 17 thousand to 283 thousand in the week ending October 18th, , according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average was 281 thousand, a decrease of 3 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. This was the lowest level for this average since May 6, 2000 when it was 279.25 thousand.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2% from August to September, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This result stems from unchanged average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers. Real average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from September 2013 to September 2014.
  • Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Thirty-one states had unemployment rate decreases from August, 8 states had increases, and 11 states and the District of Columbia had no change.
  • The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.8% in September, while the coincident index increased 0.4%.

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Key Economic Indicators – October 20, 2014

Friday, October 17th, 2014
  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for September were down 0.3% from the previous month, but were up 4.3% from September 2013.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for August were down 0.4%, while inventories were up 0.2%.
  • Total Industrial production increased 1.0% in September, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. The rate of capacity utilization was 79.3%, compared with 78.7 in the previous month.
  • Housing starts were up 6.3% in September, following a 12.8% decrease in the previous month. Building permits for September were up 1.5% from the previous month, and were up 2.5% from September 2013.
  • After four consecutive monthly gains, the housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo decreased 5 points to 54 in October.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 16th showed average fixed mortgage rates hitting new lows for the year. At 3.97% the average 30-year fixed rate is at its lowest level since the week of June 20, 2013 when it averaged 3.93%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 5.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 10th.
  • The producer price index for final demand, which held steady in August, decreased 0.1% in September. The core index increased 0.2% in September. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.6% from September 2013 to September 2014.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 23 thousand to 264 thousand in the week ending October 11th. The 4-week moving average was 283.5 thousand, a decrease of 4.25 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average of 287.75 thousand.
  • The October 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity grew modestly for New York manufacturers.
  • The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for October indicated continued growth in the region’s manufacturing sector.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for October was 86.4, the highest level since July 2007.
  • The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that overall economic activity continued to increase at a moderate pace.

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Key Economic Indicators – October 13, 2014

Saturday, October 11th, 2014
  • The federal government budget ran a deficit of $128.7 billion in August, after a deficit of $94.6 billion in the previous month. Total receipts were $194.2 billion, up 4.8% from August 2013. Total outlays were $323.0 billion, down 3.1% from a year ago. The budget deficit of $128.7 in August was $19.2 billion less than the deficit of $147.9 billion in August of 2013. The cumulative budget deficit for the first eleven months of fiscal year 2014 was $589.5 billion, $167.6 billion less than the deficit of $757.0 billion for the same period of the previous fiscal year.
  • Sales of merchant wholesalers in August were down 0.7% from the previous month, but were up 5.8% from August 2013. Inventories were up 0.7% from the previous month, and were up 7.9% from a year ago. The August inventories/sales ratio was 1.19, compared with 1.16 a year ago.
  • August consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 5.0%. Revolving credits decreased 0.3%, while non-revolving credits increased 7.0%.
  • The import price index decreased 0.5% in September, while the export price index decreased 0.2%. The import price index decreased 0.9% from September 2013, while the price index for exports decreased 0.2%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased a thousand to 287 thousand in the week ending October 4th. The 4-week moving average was 287.75 thousand, a decrease of 7.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 9th showed average fixed mortgage rates falling back near their lows for 2014. 30-year fixed-mortgage average 4.12% for the week ending October 9th, down from last week when it averaged 4.19%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.30%, down from 3.36%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 3.8% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 3rd.

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Key Economic Indicators – October 6, 2014

Sunday, October 5th, 2014
  • Total non-farm payroll employment increased 248 thousand in September, following an increase of 180 thousand in the previous month. Private-sector payrolls increased by 236 thousand in the month, while government employment increased by 12 thousand.
  • The number of unemployed persons decreased by 329 to 9.262 million. The unemployment rate decreased to 5.9% in September, from 6.1% in August. The unemployment rate was 7.2% in September of 2013.
  • The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased 0.1 to 34.6 hours. Average hourly earnings decreased by a cent to $24.53, while average weekly earnings increased by $2.11 to $848.74. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.0%, and average weekly earnings were up 2.2%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 8 thousand to 287 thousand in the week ending September 27.
  • Personal income increased 0.3% in August, while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures was up 1.5% from August 2013.
  • Sales of domestic cars decreased 10.1% in September, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales decreased 6.3%. Total vehicle sales were 16.3 million units in September, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.4 million in the previous month, and 15.3 million in September of 2013.
  • New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.8% in November, while shipments increased 1.0%.
  • In August, international trade deficit was $40.1 billion, $0.2 billion less than the July figure. The cumulative trade deficit for the first eight months of 2014 was $335.2 billion, compared with a cumulative deficit of $321.7 billion during the first eight months of 2013.
  • Construction spending decreased 0.8% in August, following a 1.2% increase in the previous month.
  • The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, decreased 1.0% to 104.7 in August, according to the National Association of Realtors.
  • The S & P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Indices posted annual increases of 6.7% in the 12 months ending in July, for both 10-city and 20-city composites. As of July 2014, average home prices were back to their autumn 2004 levels, and approximately 16-17% below their June/July 2006 peaks.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 2nd showed average fixed mortgage rates flat to slightly down. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.19%, down from last week when it averaged 4.20%
  • Mortgage applications decreased 0.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 26th.
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had increased in August, decreased in September.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the 16th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 64th consecutive month.

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