Archive for June, 2019
Friday, June 28th, 2019
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2%.
- Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.0% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.1% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3% in the final quarter of 2018.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7% in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.5%, compared with an increase of 1.5%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.2%, compared with an increase of 1.8%.
- Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $59.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter.
- Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $1.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $68.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $13.6 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $7.4 billion, compared with an increase of $1.9 billion.
- State personal income increased 3.4% at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2019, a deceleration from the 4.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income increased in all states except South Dakota. The percent change in personal income across all states ranged from 5.6% in West Virginia to negative 0.6% in South Dakota.
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Friday, June 21st, 2019
- The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $130.4 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2019 from $143.9 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit decreased to 2.5% of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.8% in the previous quarter. The $13.5 billion decrease in the current-account deficit mostly reflected a decrease in the in the deficit on goods that was partly offset by an increase in the deficit on secondary income.
- May existing home sales increased 2.5% to an annualized rate of 5,340 thousand units. The May figure was 1.1% below the May 2018 figure. There were 1,920 thousand homes for sale at the end of the month. This represents a supply of 4.3 months at the current sales rate, compared to 4.2 in May of 2018. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $277.7 thousand, 4.8% above May 2018.
- Housing starts in May were down 0.9% from the previous month and were down 4.7% from a year ago. Year-to-date, housing starts were down 5.3% from the same period a year ago. Building permits were up 0.3% from the previous month but were down 0.5% from May 2018. Year-to-date, building permits were down 3.0% from the same period a year ago.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates have stabilized. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.84% for the week ending June 20, up from last week when it averaged 3.82%. A year ago this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.57%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.25% for the week ending June 20, down from last week when it averaged 3.26%. A year ago this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 4.04%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 3.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 14th.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 5 thousand to 216 thousand in the week ending June 15. The 4-week moving average was 218.75 thousand, an increase of a thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 8 was 1,662 thousand, a decrease of 37 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,679 thousand, a decrease of 5.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- Unemployment rates were lower in May in 6 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Five states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 1 state had an increase, and 44 states and the District had little or no change. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 1 state in May and was essentially unchanged in 49 states and the District of Columbia. Over the year, 24 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 26 states and the District of Columbia were essentially unchanged.
- Employer costs for employee compensation for civilian workers averaged $36.77 per hour worked in March 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages and salaries cost employers $25.22 while benefit costs were $11.55. Total compensation costs for civilian workers were $12.71 at the 10th wage percentile, $27.87 at the 50th (median) wage percentile, and $72.62 at the 90th wage percentile. Total employer compensation costs for private industry workers averaged $34.49 per hour worked. Wages and salaries averaged $24.17 per hour worked and accounted for 70.1% of employer costs. Benefit costs averaged $10.33 per hour worked and accounted for the remaining 29.9%. Median employer costs per employee hour worked were $17.64 for wages and salaries and $7.57 for benefits. State and local government worker compensation costs for employers averaged $50.89 per hour worked in March 2019. Wages and salaries averaged $31.75 and accounted for 62.4% of employer costs, while benefit costs averaged $19.14 and accounted for 37.6%.
- The June 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity took a sharp turn downward for New York manufacturers. The headline (general business conditions) index decreased from 17.8 in May to negative 8.6 in June. The prices paid index edged up 1.6 points to 27.8 in June, and the prices received index decreased 5.6 points to 6.8.
- The PhiladelphiaFEDbusiness outlook survey reported that manufacturing activity in the region weakened in June. The general business activity index decreased from 16.6 in May to 0.3 in June. The prices paid index decreased from 23.2 in May to 12.9 in June, while prices received index decreased from 17.5 to 0.6.
- The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators held steady in May, following an increase of 0.1% in the previous month. Over the six-month span through May, the leading index increased 0.3% (about a 0.5% annual rate), with five out of ten components advancing. The Conference Board coincident economic index increased 0.2% in May, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Over the six-month span through May, the coincident index increased 0.7%% (about a 1.3% annual rate), with three out of four components advancing.
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25% to 2.50%. “The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”
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Saturday, June 15th, 2019
- The producer price index for final demand increased 0.1% in May, following an increase of 0.2% in the previous month. The price index for final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade increased 0.4%, the same increase as in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.8% from May 2018 to May 2019, while the index for final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade increased 2.3%.
- The import price index decreased 0.3% in May, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The overall import price index decreased 1.5% from May 2018. The export price index decreased 0.2% in May, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The price index for overall exports decreased 0.7% from May 2018.
- The consumer price index increased 0.1% in May, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The core index, all items less food and energy, increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.8% for the 12-month period ending in May, while the core index rose 2.0%.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% from April to May. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hires increased to 5.9 million, and separations were little changed at 5.6 million.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 3 thousand to 222 thousand in the week ending June 8. The 4-week moving average was 217.75 thousand, an increase of 2.5 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 1 was 1,695 thousand, an increase of 2 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,683.25 thousand, an increase of 7.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
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Saturday, June 8th, 2019
- Total non-farm payroll employment edged up 75 thousand in May, following an increase of 224 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 90 thousand in May, while government employment decreased by 15 thousand. Monthly job gains have averaged 164 thousand in 2019, compared with an average gain of 223 thousand per month in 2018. In May, employment continued to trend up in professional and business services and in health care.
- The unemployment rate remained at 3.6% in May. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in May 2018.
- The number of unemployed edged up by 64 thousand to 5.888 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 68 thousand to 1.298 million and accounted for 22.4% of the unemployed.
- The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.8% in May, and employment-population ratio was unchanged at 60.6%.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
- In May, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 6 cents to $27.83. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 3.1%.
- New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.8% in April, following a 1.3% increase in the previous month. Shipments decreased 0.5%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Year-to-date new orders were up 1.6%, and shipments were up 2.6%.
- In April, international trade deficit in goods and services was $50.8 billion, down $1.1 billion from March. Exports decreased $4.6 billion to $206.8 billion, and imports decreased $5.7 billion to $257.6 billion. The cumulative deficit was $205.4 billion for the first four months of 2019, compared with a deficit of $201.3 billion for the same period of the previous year.
- Non-farm business sector labor productivity increased 3.4% during the first quarter of 2019, following a 1.3% increase in the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor. Unit labor costs decreased 1.6%, following a 0.4% decrease in the previous quarter. Productivity in the non-farm business sector increased 2.4% from the first quarter of 2018, and unit labor costs also decreased 0.8%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was unchanged at 222 thousand in the week ending June 1. The 4-week moving average was 215 thousand, a decrease of 2.5 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending May 25 was 1,682 thousand, an increase of 20 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,672.75 thousand, a decrease of a thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
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Saturday, June 1st, 2019
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the “second” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2%. In the advance estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 3.2% for the first quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 2.5% in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.1% in the final quarter of 2018.
- Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.4% in the first quarter of 2019, compared with a decrease of 0.5% in the final quarter of 2018.
- The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.2% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2018.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.7% in the first quarter of 2019, compared with an increase of 1.7% in the previous quarter.
- The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.4%, compared with an increase of 1.5%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.0%, compared with an increase of 1.8%.
- Corporate profits from current production decreased $65.4 billion in the first quarter of 2019, after a decrease of $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $7.4 billion in the first quarter of 2019, in contrast to a decrease of $25.2 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $62.0=1 billion, compared with an increase of $13.6 billion in the previous quarter. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $10.7 billion in the first quarter, following an increase of $1.9 billion.
- Personal income increased 0.5% in April, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%, after increasing 1.1% in the previous month. Real disposable income increased 0.1% in April, while real personal consumption expenditures held steady. The savings rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, was 6.2% in April, up from 6.1% in March.
- The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% in April, after an increase of 0.2% in March. The core index increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The price index for personal consumption expenditures was up 1.5% from April 2018, while the core index was up 1.6%.
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