· Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2017, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1%. In the second estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 1.2% for the first quarter of 2017.
· Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 2.6% in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.1% in the final quarter of 2016.
· Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.0% in the first quarter of 2017, compared with a decrease of 1.4% in the final quarter of 2016.
· The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.2% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2016.
· The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.5% in the first quarter of 2017, compared with an increase of 2.0% in the previous quarter.
· The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.4%, compared with an increase of 2.0%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.0%, compared with an increase of 1.3%.
· Corporate profits from current production decreased $48.4 billion in the first quarter of 2017, after an increase of $11.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $27.9 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $26.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $11.1 billion, compared with a decrease of $60.4 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $9.4 billion, compared with an increase of $45.1 billion.
· Personal income increased 0.4% in May, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1%, after increasing 0.4% in the previous month. Real disposable personal income increased 0.6% in May, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.1%, following an increase of 0.2% in the previous month. The core index increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. The price index for personal consumption expenditures was up 1.4% from May 2016. The core index was also up 1.4% from a year ago.
· State personal income growth accelerated to 1.0% on average in the first quarter of 2017 from 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Earnings and personal current transfer receipts were the leading contributors to growth for the nation and in most states. Personal income grew 1.6% in Idaho, faster than in any other state. Four other states—Louisiana, Michigan, Florida, and Texas—had the next fastest growth in personal income at 1.3%. Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa had the slowest growth, and Nebraska at negative 0.1% was the only state where personal income declined.
· New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.1% in April, while shipments increased 0.8%. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1%, while shipments increased 0.2%. Year-to-date new orders were up 2.8% from the same period a year ago, while shipments were up 2.5%.
· Retail inventories for May were up 0.6% from the previous month, and were up 3.2% from May 2016, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
· Wholesale inventories for May were up 0.3% from the previous month, and were up 1.8% from May 2016.
· The international trade deficit in goods was $65.9 billion in May, down $1.2 billion from $67.1 billion in April, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exports of goods for May were $127.1 billion, $0.5 billion more than April exports. Imports of goods for May were $193.0 billion, $0.8 billion less than April imports.
· The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, decreased 0.8% to a reading of 108.5 in May, according to the National Association of Realtors. The index was 1.7% below May 2016 level.
· The S & P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indices for April show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. The S & P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index recorded a 5.5% annual gain in April, down from 5.6% last month. As of April 2017, home prices were back to their winter 2007 levels. The U.S. National index was 2.1% above its July 2006 peak level, and 10-city and 20-city composite indices were approximately 5-7% below their June/July 2006 peaks.
· The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moving lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.88% for the week ending June 29, down from last week when it averaged 3.90%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year rate was 3.48%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.17%, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year rate was 2.78%.
· Mortgage applications decreased 6.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 23rd.
· The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 2 thousand to 244 thousand in the week ending June 24. The 4-week moving average was 242.25 thousand, a decrease of 2.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 17 was 1,948 thousand, an increase of 6 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,938.75 thousand, an increase of 7.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
· Unemployment rates were lower in May than a year earlier in 298 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 66 areas, and unchanged in 24 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 304 metropolitan areas, decreased in 77 areas, and was unchanged in 6 areas.
· In 2016, on days they worked, 22% of employed persons did some or all of their work at home, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Among workers age 25 and over, those with an advanced degree were more likely to work at home than were persons with less education (43% of workers with an advanced degree performed some work at home on days worked, compared with 12% of those with a high school diploma). The share of workers doing some or all of their work at home grew from 19% in 2003 (the first year the American Time Use Survey was conducted) to 22% in 2016. In this same period, the average time employed persons spent working at home on days they worked increased by 34 minutes (from 2.6 hours to 3.1 hours).
· The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had decreased in May, increased moderately in June. The Index now stands at 118.9 (1985=100), up from 117.6 in May. The present situation index increased from 140.6 to 146.3, while the expectations index declined from 102.3 to 100.6.
· The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 95.1 in June, compared with 97.1 in May and 93.5 in June of last year. The current economic conditions index increased from 111.7 to 112.5, while the index of consumer expectations declined from 87.7 to 83.9.
· The Chicago FED National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to negative 0.26 in May, from 0.57 in April. Thirty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 53 made negative contributions. Twenty-six indicators improved from April to May, while 56 indicators deteriorated and three were unchanged. The Index was negative 0.52 in May of 2016. The index’s 3-month moving average decreased to 0.04 in May from 0.21 in April.
· The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) was unchanged at negative 0.89 in the week ending June 23. The risk and leverage sub-indexes were unchanged from the previous week, while the credit sub-index edged down and the nonfinancial leverage sub-index ticked up. The Index was negative 0.60 a year ago. The adjusted index (ANFCI), which removes the variation in the individual indicators attributable to economic activity and inflation, increased slightly to negative 0.36, from negative 0.40.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Fifth District manufacturing index increased to 7 in June, from 1 in May. On the other hand, activity in the service sector improved at a more moderate pace in June, with the revenues index of 19, compared with 34 in May – its highest level since 1997.