Archive for December, 2019
Thursday, December 26th, 2019
- New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased 2.0%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, following a 0.2% October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.8%. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month
- Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 719,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.3% above October and is 16.9%above the November 2018 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2019 was $330,800.The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 323,000. This represents a supply of 5.4 months at the current sales rate.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of December 26th showed little change in mortgage rates. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 374% for the week ending December 26, little changed from last week when it averaged 4.62%. A year ago at this time the 30-year fixed rate averaged 4.55%.15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.19%, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time the 15-year fixed rate averaged 4.01%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 5.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending December 20th.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 222 thousand in the week ending December 21, a decrease of 13 thousand from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 228 thousand, an increase of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
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Friday, December 20th, 2019
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the third quarter of 2019, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0%. In the second estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was also 2.1%.
- Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 2.1% in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.0% in the previous quarter.
- Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.1% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9% in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.1% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4% in the second quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2% in the previous quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.5%, compared with an increase of 2.4%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.1%, compared with an increase of 1.9%.
- Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital consumption adjustment) decreased $4.7 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $75.8 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $4.7 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $2.5 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $5.5 billion, compared with an increase of $34.7 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $5.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $38.7 billion.
- Personal income increased 0.5% in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased 0.5% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4%. Real DPI increased 0.4%, and real PCE increased 0.3%. The PCE price index increased 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.1%. The PCE price index increased 1.5% from a year ago, while the core (PCE excluding food and energy) price index increased 1.6%.
- Total Industrial production increased 1.1% in November, following a decrease of 0.9% in the previous month. Total Industrial production was down 0.8% from November 2018. The capacity utilization rate was 77.3 in November, 2.5 percentage points below the average for the 1972-2018 period, and 2.3 percentage points above the November 2018 level.
- The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $124.1 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2019 from $125.2 billion (revised) in the second quarter of 2019, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit edged down to 2.3% of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP), from 2.4% in the second quarter. The $1.1 billion decrease in the current-account deficit reflected a reduced deficit on goods and an expanded surplus on primary income.
- State personal income increased 3.8% on average in the third quarter of 2019, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, state personal income increased 4.4%. Personal income increased in all states and the District of Columbia. The percent change in personal income across all states ranged from 15.2% in South Dakota and Washington to 1.9% in West Virginia and Wyoming.
- Unemployment rates were lower in November in 7 states, higher in 5 states, and stable in 38 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 2 states had increases, and 41 states and the District had little or no change. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 6 states in November 2019, decreased in 1, and was essentially unchanged in 43 states and the District of Columbia. Over the year, 25 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 25 states and the District were essentially unchanged.
- The number of job openings edged up to 7.3 million on the last business day of October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively.
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Sunday, December 15th, 2019
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for November were up 0.2% from the previous month and were up 3.3% from November 2018. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, sales were up 0.1% from the previous month, and were up 3.0% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales and food services were up 3.4% from the same period of 2018.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales for October were down 0.1% from the previous month and were down 0.1% from October 2018. Total business inventories were up 0.2% from the previous month, and were up 3.1% from a year ago. The inventories/sales ratio was 1.40, compared to 1.36 in October of 2018.
- Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the second quarter ranged from 4.7% in Texas to 0.5% in Hawaii
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) first official release of gross domestic product (GDP) by county for 2001-2018 was made available. In 2018, real (inflation adjusted) GDP increased in 2,375 counties, decreased in 717, and was unchanged in 21 counties. Real GDP ranged from $18.4 million in Issaquena County, Mississippi to $710.9 billion in Los Angeles County, California. Of the 141 large counties, those with populations greater than 500,000 in 2018, real GDP increased in 136 and decreased in 5. Of the 464 medium-sized counties, those with populations between 100,000 and 500,000 in 2018, real GDP increased in 433, decreased in 30, and was unchanged in 1. Of the 2,508 small counties, those with populations less than 100,000 in 2018, real GDP increased in 1,806, decreased in 682, and was unchanged in 20.
- Import prices increased 0.2% in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, following a 0.5% decrease in the previous month. Prices for imports decreased 1.3% from November 2018. The price index for exports increased 0.2% in November, after decreasing 0.1% in the previous month. Prices for exports decreased 1.3% over the past year.
- The producer price index for final demand (headline index) held steady in November, following an increase of 0.4% in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade also held steady, following an increase of 0.1% in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 1.1% from November 2018 to November 2019, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 1.3%.
- The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.3% in November, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. The core index, all items less food and energy, increased 0.2%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.1% for the 12-month period ending in November. The core index rose 2.3% from a year ago.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from October to November. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3% in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 49 thousand to 252 thousand in the week ending December 7. The 4-week moving average was 224 thousand, an increase of 6.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending November 30 was 1,667 thousand, a decrease of 31 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,676, a decrease of 6.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average
- Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.2% during the third quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output increased 2.3% and hours worked increased 2.5%. From the third quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2019, productivity increased 1.5%, reflecting a 2.3% increase in output and a 0.9% increase in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 2.5% in the third quarter of 2019, reflecting a 2.3% increase in hourly compensation and a 0.2% decrease in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 2.2% over the last four quarters.
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Sunday, December 8th, 2019
- Total non-farm payroll employment increased 266 thousand in November, following an increase of 156 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 254 thousand in November, while government employment increased by 12 thousand. In November, notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Employment also increased in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, transportation and warehousing, and financial activities, while mining lost jobs.
- The unemployment rate edged down to 3.5% in November, from 3.6% in October. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in November 2018.
- The number of unemployed decreased by 44 thousand to 5.811 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 40 thousand to 1.224 million and accounted for 20.8% of the unemployed.
- The labor force participation rate was little changed at 63.2% in November.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in November.
- In November, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 7 cents to $28.29. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 3.1%.
- The international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $47.2 billion in October from $51.1 billion in September (revised), as exports decreased to $207.1 billion and imports decreased to $254.3 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit was $520.1 billion, an increase of $6.9 billion, from the same period in 2018.
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Sunday, December 1st, 2019
- New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased 0.6%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 1.4% September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1%. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased less than $0.1 billion. This followed a 0.7% September decrease.
- The international trade deficit was $66.5 billion in October, down $4.0 billion from $70.5 billion in September, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exports of goods for October were $135.3 billion, $0.9 billion less than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $201.8 billion, $5.0 billion less than September imports.
- Retail inventories for October were up 0.3% from September and were up 3.1% from October 2018.
- Wholesale inventories for October were up 0.2% from September and were up 3.9% from October 2018.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 15 thousand to 213 thousand in the week ending November 23. The 4-week moving average was 219.75 thousand, a decrease of 1.5 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending November 16 was 1,640 thousand, a decrease of 57 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since August 4, 1973 when it was 1,633 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 1,680.5 thousand, a decrease of 13 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
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