Archive for August, 2015

Key Economic Indicators – August 31, 2015

Friday, August 28th, 2015
  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.7% in the second quarter of 2015, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, after increasing at 0.6% in the previous quarter. In the advance estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 2.3%.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5% in the second quarter, compared to a decrease of 1.6% in the previous quarter.
  • Corporate profits from current production increased $47.5 billion in the second quarter, after a decrease of $123.0 billion in the previous quarter.
  • Personal income increased 0.4%, in July. Disposable personal income increased 0.5%, while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%.
  • The price index for personal consumption expenditures (headline index) and the core index both increased 0.1% in July. The price index (headline index) was up 0.3% from July 2014, while the core index was up 1.2%.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 2.0% in July, while shipments increased 1.0%. Year-to-date, new orders were down 5.1% from the same period in 2014, while shipments were up 2.5%.
  • July new home sales increased 5.4% to an annualized rate of 507 thousand units. The July figure was 25.8% above the July 2014 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold was $285.9 thousand, 2.0% above July 2014.  
  • U.S. House prices rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from May to June, following a 0.5% increase in the previous period, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in June, U.S. house prices rose 5.6%.
  • The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index recorded a year-over-year increase of 4.5% in June 2015. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes posted annual increases of 4.6% and 5.0% in the 12 months ending in June, for the 10-city and 20-city composite indices, respectively. As of June 2015, both indexes were back to their winter 2005 levels, and were approximately 12-14% below from their June/July 2006 peaks.
  • The Pending Home Sales Index decreased 0.5% in July, according to the National Association of Realtors. The index was up 7.4% from July 2014.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 27th showed average fixed mortgage rates falling to their lowest levels since May amid ongoing global volatility. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.84% for the week ending August 27, down from last week when it averaged 3.93%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.10%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 0.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 21st.  
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 6 thousand to 271 thousand in the week ending August 22nd. The 4-week moving average was 272.5 thousand, an increase of a thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • The Chicago FED National Activity Index rose to 0.34 in July, from negative 0.07 in June.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline moderately in August.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond survey indicated that Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in August.
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had declined in July, rebounded in August. The Index increased to 101.5 in August, from 91.0 in July.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 91.9 in August, from 93.1 in July.

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Key Economic Indicators – August 24, 2015

Friday, August 21st, 2015
  • Housing starts in July were up 0.2% from the previous month, and were up 10.1% from July 2014.
  • Building permits in July were down 16.3% from the previous month, but were up 7.5% from a year ago.
  • July existing home sales increased 2.0% to an annualized rate of 5,590 thousand units. The July figure was 10.3% above the July 2014 figure. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $234.0 thousand, 5.6% above July 2014.
  • The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo increased a point to 61 in August. The index was 57 in January of this year and 55 in August of 2014.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 20th showed average fixed mortgage rates largely unchanged from the previous week, and remained under 4.0% for the fifth consecutive week. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.93% for the week ending August 20, down from last week when it averaged 3.94%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 4.10%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 3.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 14th.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) and the core index both increased 0.1% in July. The consumer price index increased 0.2% for the 12-month period ending in July, while the core index rose 1.8%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1% from June to July. This result stems from 1 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings being offset by a 0.1% increase in the consumer price index.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 4 thousand to 277 thousand in the week ending August 15th. The 4-week moving average was 271.5 thousand, an increase of 5.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in July. Twenty-four states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from the previous month, 14 states had increases, and 12 states had no change.  In July 2015, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 34 states and decreased in 16 states and the District of Columbia.
  • The August 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity declined for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index plummeted nineteen points to negative 14.9, its lowest level since 2009.
  • The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for August reported increased manufacturing activity.
  • The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators decreased 0.2% in July, following a 0.6% increase in June. The coincident index increased 0.2% in July, the same increase as in the previous month.

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Key Economic Indicators – August 17, 2015

Friday, August 14th, 2015
  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for July were up 0.6% from the previous month, and were up 2.4% from July 2014.
  • Sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, increased 0.1% in June, while inventories increased 0.9%. Sales were down 3.8% from June 2014, while inventories were up 5.4%.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for June were up 0.2%, while inventories were up 0.8%.
  • Total Industrial production increased 0.6% in July, after increasing 0.1% in the previous month. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3% percentage point in July to 78.0%, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2014) average.
  • Second quarter productivity increased 1.3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the non-farm business sector, following a 1.1% decrease in the previous period. Productivity was up 0.3% from the second quarter of 2014.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 5 thousand to 274 thousand in the week ending August 8th. The 4-week moving average was 266.25 thousand, a decrease of 1.75 from the previous week’s average.
  • The number of job openings was little changed at 5.2 million on the last business day of June. The number of hires and separations were little changed at 5.2 million and 4.9 million, respectively.
  • The federal government budget ran a deficit of $149.1 billion in July, following a surplus of $50.5 billion in the previous month. The cumulative budget deficit for the first ten months of fiscal year was $465.5 billion, compared with the deficit of $460.5 billion for the same period of the previous fiscal year.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 13th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving higher for the first time in four weeks. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.94% for the week ending August 13, up from last week when it averaged 3.91%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.12%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 0.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 7th.
  • The producer price index for final demand increased 0.2% in July, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. The index for final demand for goods less foods and energy were unchanged. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.8% from July 2014 to July 2015, while prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.9%.
  • The import price index decreased 0.9% in July, while the export price index decreased 0.2%. The import price index decreased 10.4% from July 2014, while the price index for overall exports decreased 6.1%.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, was virtually unchanged in early August. The index now stands at 92.9, compared with 93.1 in July, and 82.5 a year ago.

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Key Economic Indicators – August 10, 2015

Friday, August 7th, 2015
  • Total non-farm payroll employment rose 215 thousand in July, following an increase of 231 thousand in the previous month.   Private-sector payrolls increased by 210 thousand in the month, while government employment increased by 5 thousand.
  • The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3%.
  • The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased 0.1 to 36.4 hours.
  • Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 5 cents to $24.99.  Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.1%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 3 thousand to 270 thousand in the week ending August 1st. The 4-week moving average was 268.25 thousand, a decrease of 6.5 thousand from the previous week’s average of 274.75 thousand.
  • Personal income increased 0.4%, in June, while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%. The price index (headline index) for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in June, while the core index increased 0.1%. The price index (headline index) for personal consumption expenditures was up 0.3% from June 2014, while the core index was up 1.3%.
  • New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.8% in June, while shipments increased 0.5%. Year-to-date orders manufacturing orders were down 5.9% from a year ago, while shipments were down 3.6%.
  • Sales of domestic cars increased 6.0% in July, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales increased 3.0%. Total vehicle sales were 17.5 million units in July, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 16.4 million in July of 2014.
  • In June, international trade deficit was $43.8 billion, $2.9 billion more than the revised May figure. The cumulative deficit for the first half of 2015 was $255.7 billion, compared with the deficit of $254.1 billion for the first half of 2014.
  • May consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 8.3%. Revolving credits increased at an annual rate of 9.3%, while non-revolving credits increased 7.9%.
  • Construction spending in June was up 0.1% from the previous month, and was up 12.0% from June 2014. Private construction decreased 0.5% in June, while public construction increased 1.6%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 6th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving down for the third week in a row. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.91% for the week ending August 6th, down from last week when it averaged 3.98%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 4.14%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 4.7% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 31st.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the 31st consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 74th consecutive month.
  • In July, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth for the 66th consecutive month.

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