Archive for November, 2015

Key Economic Indicators – November 30, 2015

Wednesday, November 25th, 2015
  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the third quarter of 2013, following a 3.9% increase in the previous quarter, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the “advance” estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 1.5%. 
  • Real gross domestic income increased 3.1% in the third quarter, following a 2.2% in the previous quarter. The average of real GDP and real gross domestic income increased 2.6%, following a 3.0% in the previous quarter.
  • Real final sales of domestic product rose 2.7%, following a 3.9% in the previous quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3% in the third quarter, compared to an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter. 
  • Corporate profits from current production decreased $22.7 billion in the third quarter, after an increase of $70.4 billion in the previous quarter.
  • Personal income increased 0.4%, in October, while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1%. Real disposable personal income increased 0.4%, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1%.
  • The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1% in October, while the core index held steady. The price index (headline index) was up 0.2% from October 2014, while the core index was up 1.3%.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 3.0% in October, while shipments decreased 1.0%. Year-to-date new orders for manufactured durable goods were down 4.2% from the same period a year ago, while shipments were up 1.7%.
  • October existing home sales decreased 3.4% to an annualized rate of 5,360 thousand units, according to the National Association of Realtors. The October figure was 3.9% above the October 2014 figure. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $219.6 thousand, 5.8% above October 2014.
  • October new home sales were up 10.7% from the previous month, and were up 4.9% from a year ago. The median sales price of new houses sold was $281.5 thousand, 6.0% below October 2014.
  • U.S. House prices rose 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from August to September, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in September, house prices rose 6.1%.
  • The S & P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index in September was up 0.2% from the previous month, and up 4.9% from September 2014. As of September 2015, home prices were 11-13% below their June/July 2006 peaks, and were back to their winter 2007 levels.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of November 25th showed average fixed mortgage rates declining slightly leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.95% for the week ending November 25th, down from last week when it averaged 3.97%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.97%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 3.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 20th.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 12 thousand to 260 thousand in the week ending November 21. The 4-week moving average was 271 thousand, unchanged from the previous revised week’s average.
  • The Chicago FED National Activity Index was negative 0.04 in October, up from negative 0.29 in September.
  • Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in November, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Fifth District service sector activity moderated in November.
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had decreased moderately in October, declined further in November.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose in November. 

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Key Economic Indicators – November 23, 2015

Friday, November 20th, 2015
  • Total Industrial production decreased 0.2% in October for the second consecutive month. Total industrial production in October was 0.3% above its level a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization decreased 0.2 percentage point to 77.5%, 2.6 percentage points below its 1972-2014 average.
  • Housing starts in October were down 11.0% from the previous month, and were down 1.8% from October 2014. Building permits in October were up 4.1% from September, and were up 2.7% from a year ago.
  • The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo decreased 3 points to 62 in November. The index was 58 in November 2014 and 57 in January 2015.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of November 19th showed average fixed mortgage rates largely unchanged from the previous week. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.97% for the week ending November 19th, down from last week when it averaged 3.98%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.99%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 6.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 13th.
  • The consumer price index increased 0.2% in October, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. The core index increased 0.2%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 0.2% for the 12-month period ending in October, while the core index rose 1.9%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 5 thousand to 271 thousand in the week ending November 14. The 4-week moving average was 270.75 thousand, an increase of 3 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.2% from September to October. This result stems from 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings, combined with a 0.2% increase in the consumer price index.
  • The November 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity declined for a fourth consecutive month for New York manufacturers.
  • The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey indicated that regional manufacturing activity showed slight improvement in November.
  • The Conference Board’s leading economic index increased 0.6% in October, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The coincident index increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% in the previous month. Over the six-month span through October, the leading index increased 1.6% with seven out of ten components advancing, while the coincident index increased 0.9% with all four components advancing.

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Key Economic Indicators – November 16, 2015

Friday, November 13th, 2015
  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for October were up 0.1% from September, and were up 1.7% from October 2014, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales were up 0.2% from September, and were up 0.5% from a year ago.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for September were virtually unchanged from August, while inventories were up 0.3%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.38, compared with 1.31 in September 2014.
  • Sales of merchant wholesalers for September were up 0.5% from the previous month, but were down 3.9% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Inventories were up 0.5% from August, and were up 4.7% from September of 2014.
  • The federal government budget ran a deficit of $136.5 billion in October, after a surplus of $91.1 billion in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Fiscal Service, Department of the Treasury.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was unchanged at 276 thousand in the week ending November 7. The 4-week moving average was 267.75 thousand, an increase of 5 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hires and separations were little changed at 5.0 million and 4.8 million, respectively. Job openings rose over the year for several industries with the largest increases occurring in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, and retail trade.
  • The producer price index for total final demand decreased 0.4% in October, while the index for final demand goods less foods and energy decreased 0.3%. The producer price index for final demand decreased 1.6% from October 2014 to October 2015.
  • The import price index decreased 0.5% in October, while the export price index decreased 0.2%. The import price index decreased 10.5% from October 2014, while the price index for exports decreased 6.7%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates rising amid continued expectations of a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.98% for the week ending November 12th, up from last week when it averaged 3.87%.  A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.01%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 1.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 6th.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 93.1 in early November, from the final reading of 90.0 in October. The Index was 88.8 in November of 2014.

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Key Economic Indicators – November 9, 2015

Friday, November 6th, 2015
  • Total non-farm payroll employment rose 271 thousand in October, following an increase of 137 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • The unemployment rate edged down to 5.0% in October, from 5.1% in September.
  • The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls held steady at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings increased by 9 cents to $25.20.  Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.5%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 16 thousand to 276 thousand in the week ending October 31, according to the Department of Labor. The 4-week average was 262.75 thousand, an increase of 3.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • Third quarter productivity increased 1.6% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the non-farm business sector, following a 3.5% increase in the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unit labor costs increased 1.4% in the third quarter, following a 1.8% decrease in the previous quarter.
  • Finance and insurance, professional, scientific, and technical services, and wholesale trade were the leading contributors to the 3.9% increase in real GDP in the second quarter, according to statistics on the breakout of GDP by industry released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • New orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.0% in September, following a 2.1% decrease in the previous month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Shipments decreased 0.4% in September, following a 0.9% decrease in the previous month. Year-to-date new orders were down 7.2% from the same period a year, while shipments were down 4.1%.
  • Sales of domestic cars increased 1.7% in October, following a 2.6% increase in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total light vehicle sales increased 0.3%, following a 1.9% increase in the previous month. Total vehicle sales were 18.1 million units in October, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 16.5 million in October of 2014, and 15.4 million in October 2013.
  • In September international trade deficit was $40.8 billion, down from $48.0 billion in August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Year-to-date, the cumulative trade deficit was $395.0 billion, compared with a deficit of $380.0 billion for the first nine months of 2014.
  • September construction spending increased 0.6%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Private construction increased 0.6%, while public construction increased 0.7%. September construction spending was up 14.1% from a year ago.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of November 5th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving higher amid expectations of possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.87% for the week ending November 5, up from last week when it averaged 3.76%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.02%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 0.8% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 30th.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in October for the 34th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 77th consecutive month.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey indicated that economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 69th consecutive month.

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