Archive for February, 2016

Key Economic Indicators – February 29, 2016

Friday, February 26th, 2016
  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, after increasing at 2.0% in the previous quarter. In the advance estimate, released a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 0.7%.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.4% in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of 1.3% in the previous quarter.
  • Personal income increased 0.5%, in January, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Real disposable personal income and real personal consumption expenditures both increased 0.4% in January.
  • The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1% in January, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The core index, which increased 0.1 in December, increased 0.3% in January. The price index for personal consumption expenditures was up 1.3% from January 2015, while the core index was up 2.1%
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 4.9% in January while shipments increased 1.9%.
  • January existing home sales were up 0.4% from the previous month, and were up 11.0% from January 2015. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $213.8 thousand, 8.2% above January 2015.
  • January new home sales were down 9.2% from December, and were down 5.2% from January of 2015. The median sales price of new houses sold was $278.8 thousand, 4.5% below January 2015.
  • U.S. House prices rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from November to December, after a 0.6% increase in the previous period, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in December, U.S. prices rose 5.7%.
  • The S & P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index posted an annual increase of 5.4% in December, compared with a 5.2% increase in November. The index levels for the U.S. National, 10-city and 20-city composite indices are back to their winter 2007 levels, and are approximately 11-13% below the June/July 2006 peak,
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moving lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.62% for the week ending February 25, down from last week when it averaged 3.65%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.80%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 4.3% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 19.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 10 thousand to 272 thousand in the week ending February 20. The 4-week moving average was 272 thousand, a decrease of 1.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • Fifth District manufacturing and service sector activity both slowed in February, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had increased moderately in January, declined in February.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 91.7 in February, from 92.0 in January. The index was 95.4 in February 2015.

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Key Economic Indicators – February 22, 2016

Friday, February 19th, 2016
  • Total Industrial production increased 0.9% in January, following a 0.7% decrease in the previous month. The index, which stands at 106.8 (2012=100), was down 0.7% from January 2015. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 77.1%, a level 2.9 percentage points below its 1972-2015 average, and 1.6 percentage points below its level in January 2015.
  • Housing starts in January were down 3.8% from December, but were up 1.8% from January 2015. Building permits in January were down 0.2% from December, but were up 13.5% from January 2015.
  • The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo decreased 3 points to 58 in February. The index was 55 in February of 2015.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending February 18th showed average fixed mortgage rates unchanged from the previous week, and remaining near their 2015 lows. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.65%, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.76%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 8.2% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 12.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.1% in January, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.2% in January, the same increase as in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.2% from January 2015 to January 2016, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade was up 0.8%.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) was unchanged in January, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The core index increased 0.3%, following an increase of 0.2% in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.4% for the 12-month period ending in January, while the core index rose 2.2%.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.4% from December to January. This result stems from a 0.5% increase in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 7 thousand to 262 thousand in the week ending February 13. The 4-week moving average was 273.25 thousand, a decrease of 8 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • The February Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity continued to decline for New York manufacturers.
  • The Philadelphia FED manufacturing business outlook survey for February reported continued weakness in business conditions.
  • The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators decreased 0.2% January, following a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. Over the six-month span through January, the leading index increased 0.3% (annual rate of 0.6%), with five out of ten components advancing. The coincident index increased 0.3%, following a 0.1% increase as in the previous month. During the six-month period through January, the coincident index increased 1.0% (annual rate of 2.0%), with three out of four components advancing.

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Key Economic Indicators – February 15, 2016

Friday, February 12th, 2016
  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for January were up 0.2% from December, and were up 3.4% from January 2015.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales decreased 0.6% in December, while inventories increased 0.1%. Sales of manufacturers’ were down 1.4%, while sales of retailers’ held steady. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.39 at the end of December, compared with 1.33 at the end of December 2014.
  • Sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, decreased 0.3% in December, while inventories decreased 0.1%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • The federal government budget ran a surplus of $55.2 billion in January, after a deficit of $14.4 billion in the previous month. The cumulative deficit for the first four months of the fiscal year 2016 was $160.4 billion, compared with a deficit of $194.1 billion for the same period of the previous fiscal year.
  • The import price index decreased 1.1% in January, while export prices decreased 0.8%. The fuel import price index decreased 12.4%, while the non-fuel import price index decreased 0.2%. The overall import price index decreased 6.2% from January 2015. Agricultural export prices decreased 1.1%, while non-agricultural export prices decreased 0.8%. The price index for overall exports decreased 5.7% from January 2015.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 16 thousand to 269 thousand in the week ending February 6. The 4-week moving average was 281.25 thousand, a decrease of 3.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • The number job openings increased to 5.6 million on the last business day of December, from 5.3 million in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of hires was 5.4 million, little changed from November.
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Labor Market Conditions Index decreased to 0.4 in January, from 2.3 in December. The index was 3.7 in January of 2015.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates moving lower for the sixth consecutive week. 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.65% for the week ending February 11th, down from last week when it averaged 3.72%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.69%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 9.3% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 5. The refinance index surged 16.0% from the previous week.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, continued its slow decline in February. The index was 90.7 in early February, compared with 92.0 in January, and 95.4 in February of 2015.

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Key Economic Indicators – February 8, 2016

Friday, February 5th, 2016
  • Total non-farm payroll employment rose 151 thousand in January, following an increase of 262 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 158 thousand in the month, while government employment decreased by 7 thousand. 
  • The unemployment rate was 4.9% in January. The number of unemployed persons was 7.8 million, and the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was at 2.1 million.
  • The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours in January, while the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees held steady at 33.8 hours.
  • In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 12 cents to $25.39. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 8 thousand to 285 thousand in the week ending January 30. The 4-week moving average was 284.75 thousand, an increase of 2 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • Fourth quarter productivity decreased 3.0% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the non-farm business sector, following a 2.1% increase in the previous period. Unit labor costs increased 4.5% in the fourth quarter, following a 1.9% increase in the previous quarter. From the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015, productivity was increased 0.3% as output increased 1.9% and hours worked increased 1.5%.
  • Unemployment rates were lower in December than a year earlier in 296 of the 387 metropolitan areas, higher in 79 areas, and unchanged in 12 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 
  • Personal income increased 0.3%, in December, while personal consumption expenditures held steady.
  • The price index for personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.1% in December, while the core index held steady. The price index (headline index) was up 0.6% from December 2014, while the core index was up 1.4%
  • Sales of domestic cars increased 0.5% in January, following a 3.2% decrease in the previous month. Total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales increased 1.4% in January, after a 4.7% decrease in the previous month. Sales were 17.5 million units in January, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 16.8 million in January of 2015.
  • New orders for manufactured goods decreased 2.9% in December, while shipments decreased 1.4%. In the year 2014, new orders were down 6.6% from the previous year, while shipments were down 4.3%.
  • December construction spending was up 0.1% from November, and was up 8.2% from December 2014.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of February 4th showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing for the fifth consecutive week. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average 3.72% for the week ending February 4th, down from last week when it averaged 3.79%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.59%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 2.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 29th.
  • In December international trade deficit was $43.4 billion, up $1.1 billion from November. For 2015, the goods and services deficit was $531.5 billion, up $23.2 billion or 4.6% from 2014. As a percentage of GDP, the deficit was 3.0% in 2015, up from 2.9% in 2014.
  • December consumer credit outstanding increased at an annualized rate of 7.2%. Revolving credits increased at an annualized rate of 7.5%, while non-revolving credits increased 7.1%.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector contracted in January for the fourth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 80th consecutive month.
  • In January, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity for the 72nd consecutive month.

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