Current-Cast® Report

• Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.1% in the second quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2%.
• Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 5.1% in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.9% in the first quarter.
• The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.3% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5% in the previous quarter.
• The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.8%, compared with an increase of 2.5% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.0%, compared with an increase of 2.2%.
• Personal income increased 0.4% in June. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased 0.4% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) also increased 0.4%. Real DPI increased 0.3% in June and real PCE increased 0.3%.
• The PCE price index increased 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1%. The PCE price index increased 2.2% from a year ago, while the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 1.9%.
• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2018, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP by state growth in the first quarter ranged from 3.6% in Washington to negative 0.6% in North Dakota.

·      Advance estimates of retail and food services sales increased 0.5% in June, following a 0.8% increase in the previous month. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.4%.

·      Total manufacturing and trade sales were up 1.4% in May, and inventories were up 0.4% in May.

·      Total Industrial production increased 0.6% in June, following a 0.5% decrease in the previous month. The index of industrial production in June was 3.8% above its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 78.0%, 1.8 percentage points below its 1972-2017 average, but 1.8 percentage points above its level in June 2017.

·      Housing starts decreased 13.1% in June, while building permits decreased 2.2%.

·      The import price index decreased 0.4% in June, following a 0.6% increase in the previous month. The export price index increased 0.3%, following a 0.6% increase in the previous month. The import price index increased 4.3% from June 2017, while export prices increased 5.3%.

·      The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.3% in June, after a 0.5% increase in the previous month.  The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.3%, after an increase of 0.1% in May. The producer price index for final demand increased 3.4% for the 12 months ended in June, and the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 2.7%.

·      The consumer price index increased 0.1% in June, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The core index increased 0.2%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.9% for the 12-month period ending in June, while the core index rose 2.3%.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 18 thousand to 214 thousand in the week ending July 7. The 4-week moving average was 223 thousand, a decrease of 1.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      Total non-farm payroll employment rose 213 thousand in June, following an increase of 223 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 202 thousand in May, while government employment increased by 11 thousand.

·      The unemployment rate edged up to 4.0% in June, from 3.8% in May.

·      The labor force participation rate edged up by 0.2 percentage point to 62.9% in June.

·      The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls held steady at 34.5 hours in June.

·      In June, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased 0.3%. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.7%.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 3 thousand to 231 thousand in the week ending June 30. The 4-week moving average was 224.5 thousand, an increase of 2.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      In May, international trade deficit in goods and services was $43.1 billion, down $3.1 billion from April.

·      Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2018, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 2.2%.

·      The GDP price index increased 2.2% in the first quarter of 2018, compared with an increase of 1.9% in the previous quarter.

·      Personal income increased 0.4% in May, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%, after increasing 0.6% in the previous month. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%, the same increase as in the previous month. The core index increased 0.2%, the same increase as in the previous month. The price index for personal consumption expenditures was up 2.3% from May 2017. The core index was up 2.0% from a year ago.