Archive for July, 2020
Friday, July 24th, 2020
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 109 thousand to 1,416 thousand in the week ending July 18. The 4-week moving average was 1,360.25 thousand, a decrease of 16.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 11 was 16,197 thousand, a decrease of 1,107 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 17,505.25 thousand, a decrease of 758.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.1% for the week ending July 11, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates rising for the first time in weeks. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.01% for the week ending July 23, up slightly from last week when it averaged 2.98%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.75%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.54%, up from last week when it averaged 2.48%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.18%.
- Mortgage applications increased 4.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 17, 2020.
- The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 2.0% in June, following an increase of 3.2% in the previous month. Over the six-month span through June, the leading index decreased 8.4% (about an 16.2% annual rate). The Conference Board coincident economic index increased 2.5% in June, following a 1.6% increase in the previous month. Over the six-month span through June, the coincident index decreased 9.8% (about a 18.6% annual rate).
- There were 15,537,513 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 634,069 deaths, and 8,882,923 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 7/24/2020, 9:00 EST). In the United States, there are 4,039,523 confirmed cases, 144,308 deaths, and 1,233,269 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
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Friday, July 17th, 2020
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales increased 7.5% in June, following an increase of 18.2% in the previous month. Sales were up 1.1% from a year ago.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales were up 8.4%, following a 14.4% decrease in the previous month. Inventories were down 2.3% in May, following a 1.4% in the previous month. Sales in May were down 11.8% from a year ago, and inventories were down 4.8% from May 2019.
- Total industrial production increased 5.4% in June, following a 1.4% increase in the previous month. The index of industrial production in June was 10.8% below its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 68.6%, 11.2 percentage points below its 1972-2019 average, and 9.1 percentage points below its level in June 2019.
- Housing starts in June were up 17.3% from the previous month but were down 4.0% from June 2019. Building permits in June were up 2.1% from the previous month but were down 2.5% from June 2019. Year-to-date housing starts were up 0.7% and building permits were down 0.4% from the same period a year ago.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates hit the lowest rate in the survey’s history dating back to 1971. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.98% for the week ending July 16, down from last week when it averaged 3.03%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.81%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.48%, down from last week when it averaged 2.51%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.23%.
- Mortgage applications increased 5.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 10, 2020.
- The import price index increased 1.4% in June, after a 0.8% increase in the previous month. The export price index increased 1.4%, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. The import price index decreased 3.8% from June 2019, while export prices decreased 4.4%.
- The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.6% in June, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The index for all items less food and energy (the core) index increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 0.6% for the 12-month period ending in June, while the core index rose 1.2%.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 1.7% from May to June. This result stems from a 1.2% decrease in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.6% increase in the consumer price index.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 10 thousand to 1,300 thousand in the week ending July 11. The 4-week moving average was 1,375 thousand, a decrease of 60 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 4 was 17,338 thousand, a decrease of 422 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 18,272.25 thousand, a decrease of 737.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.9% for the week ending July 4, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
- Unemployment rates were lower in June in 42 states, higher in 5 states, and stable in 3 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forty-nine states and the District of Columbia had jobless rate increases from a year earlier and one state no change.
- Nonfarm payroll employment increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in June. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
- The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that economic activity increased in almost all Districts but remained well below where it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumer spending picked up as many nonessential businesses reopen. Retail sales rose in all Districts, led by a rebound in vehicle sales and sustained growth in the food and beverage and home improvement sectors. Leisure and hospitality spending improved but was well below year-ago levels. Most Districts reported that manufacturing activity moved up, but from a very low level. Home sales increased moderately, but commercial real estate activity stayed at a low level. Outlooks remained highly uncertain largely of the COVID-19 pandemic and the magnitude of its economic implications.
- There were 13,888,874 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 592,719 deaths, and 7,779,676 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 7/17/2020, 14:30 EST). In the United States, there are 3,606,927 confirmed cases, 138,784 deaths, and 1,090,645 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
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Friday, July 10th, 2020
- Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the first quarter ranged from negative 1.3% in Nebraska to negative 8.2% in New York and Nevada. Accommodation and food services; finance and insurance; and health care and social assistance industries were the leading contributors to the 5.0% (annual rate) decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2020, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. All sectors of the U.S. economy contributed to the decrease, led by a decline in private services-producing industries.
- The decline in first-quarter GDP reflected the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued “stay-at-home” orders in March. This led to rapid changes in production, as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers and businesses canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. Overall, 17 of 22 industry groups contributed to the first-quarter decline in real GDP. Of the five industry groups that offset the decline in the first-quarter real GDP, agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting was the largest contributor, increasing 15.5%. For accommodation and food services, real value decreased 26.8% in the first quarter, primarily reflecting a decrease in food services and drinking places. Finance and insurance decreased 9.0%. The largest contributor to the decrease was insurance carriers and related activities. Health care and social assistance decreased 7.8%, primarily reflecting decreases in ambulatory health care services and in hospitals. Arts, entertainment, and recreation decreased 34.7%, primarily reflecting a decrease in performing arts, spectator sports, museums, and related activities.
- May 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 16.9% from the April level but were down 16.2% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were down 1.2% from the April level, and were down 4.2% from the revised May 2019 level.
- The producer price index for final demand (headline index) decreased 0.2% in June, following a 0.4% decrease in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.3% in June, after a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.8% for the 12 months ended in June. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.1% for the 12-months ended in June, the third 12-month decrease.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 99 thousand to 1,314 thousand in the week ending July 4. The 4-week moving average was 1,437.25 thousand, a decrease of 63 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 2719 was 18,062 thousand, a decrease of 698 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 19,085.5 thousand, a decrease of 636 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 12.4% for the week ending June 27, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
- The number of hires increased by 2.4 million to a series high of 6.5 million in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was the largest monthly increase of hires since the series began. Total separations decreased by 5.8 million to 4.1 million, the single largest decrease since the series began. Within separations, the quits rate rose to 1.6% while the layoffs and discharges rate fell to 1.4%. Job openings increased to 5.4 million on the last business day of May. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates hit another all-time-record low. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.03% for the week ending July 9, down from last week when it averaged 3.07%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.75%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.51%, down from last week when it averaged 2.56%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.22%.
- Mortgage applications increased 2.2% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 3, 2020.
- There were 12,294,117 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 555,531 deaths, and 6,761,993 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 7/10/2020, 11:00 EST). In the United States, there are 3,118,168 confirmed cases, 133,291 deaths, and 969,111 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
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Thursday, July 2nd, 2020
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In June, employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.
- Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 4.4 million in June, following an increase of 2.699 million in May and a decrease of 20.787 million in April. Private-sector payrolls increased by 4.767 million in June, while government employment increased by 33 thousand.
- In June, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 2.1 million, accounting for about 40% of the gain in total nonfarm employment. Over the month, employment in food services and drinking places rose by 1.5 million, following a gain of the same magnitude in May. Despite these gains, employment in food services and drinking places is down by 3.1 million since February. In June, employment in retail trade rose by 740 thousand, after a gain of 372 thousand in May and losses totaling 2.4 million in March and April combined. Employment increased by 568 thousand in education and health services in June but is 1.8 million below February’s level. Health care employment increased by 358 thousand over the month, with gains in offices of dentists (190 thousand), offices of physicians (80 thousand), and offices of other health practitioners (48 thousand). In June, manufacturing employment rose by 356 thousand, but is down by 757 thousand since February.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour to 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings decreased by 35 cents to $29.37. The decreases in average hourly earnings largely reflect job gains among lower-paid workers. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 5.0%.
- The unemployment rate decreased to 11.1% in June, from 13.3% in May. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in June of 2019. Although unemployment fell in May and June, the jobless rate and the number of unemployed are up by 7.6 percentage points and 12.0 million, respectively, since February. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates declined in June for adult men (10.2%), adult women (11.2%), teenagers (23.2%), Whites (10.1%), Blacks (15.4%), and Hispanics (14.5%). The jobless rates for Asians (13.8%) showed little change over the month.
- The number of unemployed persons decreased by 3.235 million to 17.750 million. The number of unemployed persons who were on temporary layoff decreased by 4.8 million in June to 10.6 million, following a decline of 2.7 million in May. The number of permanent job losers continued to rise, increasing by 588 thousand in June to 2.9 million.
- The number of unemployed persons who were jobless less than 5 weeks decreased by a million to 2.8 million. The number of unemployed persons who were jobless 5 to 14 weeks decreased by 3.3 million to 11.5 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 227 thousand to 1.4 million in June.
- The labor force participation rate increased by 0.7 percentage point to 61.5% in June but is 1.9 percentage points below its February level.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 55 thousand to 1,427 thousand in the week ending June 27. The 4-week moving average was 1,503.75 thousand, a decrease of 117.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 20 was 19,290 thousand, an increase of 59 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 19,854 thousand, a decrease of 494.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 13.2% for the week ending June 20, unchanged from the previous week’s revised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
- Unemployment rates were higher in May than a year earlier in all 389 metropolitan areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased over the year in 357 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 32 areas.
- In May, international trade deficit in goods and services was $54.6 billion, up $4.8 billion from April. May exports were $144.5 billion, $6.6 billion less than April exports. May imports were $199.1 billion, $1.8 billion less than April imports. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $22.3 billion, or 9.1%, from the same period in 2019. Exports decreased $148.3 billion or 14.0%. Imports decreased $170.6 billion or 13.1%.
- Construction spending during May 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,356.4 billion, 2.1% below the revised April estimate. The May figure is 0.3% above the May 2019 estimate. During the first five months of this year, construction spending amounted to $543.2 billion, 5.7% above the $513.7 billion for the same period in 2019.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates hit all-time-record low heading into holiday weekend. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.07% for the week ending July 2, down from 3.13% from last week. This was the lowest rate in the survey’s history dating back to 1971. A year-ago, the 30-year rate was 3.75%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.56%, down slightly from last week when it averaged 2.59%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year rate averaged 3.18%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 1.8% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 26, 2020.
- The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June was 78.1, up from 72.3 in May. The index was 98.2 in June of 2019. The current economic conditions component was 87.1 in June, compared with 82.3 in May. The index of consumer expectations increased to 72.3 in June, from 65.9 in May.
- There were over 10,726,802 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 516,786 deaths, and 5,513,009 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 7/2/2020, 10:00 EST). In the United States, there were 2,686,927 confirmed cases, 128,064 deaths, and 729,994 thousand recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
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