Key Economic Indicators – February 20, 2017

February 19th, 2017
·        Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for January were up 0.4% from December, and were up 5.6% from January 2016. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales were up 0.8% from the previous month, and were up 5.3% from a year ago.
·        Total manufacturing and trade sales increased 2.0% in December, while inventories increased 0.4%. Sales were up 5.2% from a year ago, and inventories were up 2.0% from December 2015.
·        Total Industrial production decreased 0.3% in January, following a 0.6% increase in the previous month. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 75.3%, a level 4.6 percentage points below its 1972-2016 average, and 0.4 percentage point above its level in January 2016.
·        Housing starts in January were down 2.6% from December, but were up 10.5% from January 2016. Building permits in January were up 4.6% from December, and were up 8.2% from January 2016.
·        The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo decreased to 65 in February, from 67 in January. The index was 58 in February 2016.
·        The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.15% for the week ending February 16, 2017, down from last week when it averaged 4.17%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.65%.
·        Mortgage applications decreased 3.7% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 10.
·        The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.6% in January, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods and energy increased 0.4%, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.6% from January 2016, while the index for final demand less foods and energy increased 2.1%
·        The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.6% in January, following a 0.3% in the previous month. The January increase was the largest since February 2013. The core index, all items less food and energy, increased 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.5% for the 12-month period ending in January, while the core index rose 2.3%.
·        The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 5 thousand to 239 thousand in the week ending February 11. The 4-week average was 245.25 thousand, an increase of 0.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
·        Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5% from December to January. This result stems from a 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.6% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 
·        The February Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity expanded at a solid pace in New York. The general business conditions index rose to 18.7 in February, from 6.5 in January.
·        The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for February reported that growth in regional manufacturing is broadening. The index for general business activity was 43.3 in February, up from 23.6 in January.
·        The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.6% in January, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. In the six-month period ending January 2017, the leading economic index increased 1.6% (about 3.3% annual rate), much faster than the growth of 0.9 percent (about 1.8% annual rate) during the previous six months. The coincident index increased 0.1%, following a 0.2% in December. The coincident economic index rose 0.8% (about a 1.6% annual rate) between July 2016 and January 2017, the same pace of growth as in the previous six months.

 

Key Economic Indicators – February 13, 2017

February 10th, 2017
  • Sales of merchant wholesalers in December were up 2.6% from the previous month, and were up 6.8% from the December 2015 level. Inventories were up 1.0% from the previous month, and were up 2.6% from a year ago.  In the year 2016, sales were down 0.2% from the previous year.
  • In December international trade deficit was $44.3 billion, $1.5 billion less than the revised November figure. For 2016, the goods and services deficit was $502.3 billion, up $1.9 billion from $500.4 billion in 2015. As percentage of gross domestic product, the deficit was 2.7% in 2016, compared with 2.8% in 2015.
  • December consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 4.5%. Revolving credits increased 2.9%, while non-revolving credits increased 5.1%
  • The import price index increased 0.4% in January, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. Import prices advanced 3.7% from January 2016 to January 2017. The export price index increased 0.1% in January, after increasing 0.4% in December. Export prices increased 2.3% from January 2016 to January 2017.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 12 thousand to 234 thousand in the week ending February 4. The 4-week moving average was 244.25 thousand, a decrease of 3.75 thousand from the previous week’s average of 248 thousand. This was the lowest level for this average since November 3, 1973 when it was 244 thousand.
  • The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.3 million and 5.0 million, respectively.
  • In 2016, there were 15 major work stoppages involving 99,000 workers, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The period from 2007 to 2016 was the lowest decade on record, averaging approximately 14 major work stoppages per year.
  • The Federal Reserve Board of Governors labor market conditions index was 1.3 in January, compared with 0.6 in December and negative 2.0 in January of 2016.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates moving lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.17% for the week ending February 9th, down from last week when it averaged 4.19%. A year ago, at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.65%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 2.3% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending February 3, 2017.
  • The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) was little changed in the week ending February 3. The index was negative 0.80 for the week ending February 3, compared with negative 0.79 for the week ending January 27. Twelve months ago the index was negative 0.57.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for February was 95.7, down from 98.5 in January. The index was 91.7 in February of 2016. The current economic conditions component was 111.2 in early February, compared with 111.3 in January. The index of consumer expectations decreased to 85.7 in February, from 90.3 in January.

Key Economic Indicators – February 6, 2017

February 3rd, 2017
  • Total non-farm payroll employment rose 227 thousand in January, following an increase of 157 thousand in the previous month. Private-sector payrolls increased by 237 thousand in the month, while government employment decreased by 10 thousand.
  • The unemployment rate was 4.8% in January, compared with 4.7% in December of 2016.
  • Average weekly hours held steady at 34.4. Average hourly earnings increased 3 cents to $26.00. Average hourly earnings was up 2.5% from January 2016.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 14 thousand to 246 thousand in the week ending January 28. The 4-week moving average was 248 thousand, an increase of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • Nonfarm business sector productivity increased at a 1.3% annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, following a 3.5% increase in the previous quarter. The productivity was up 1.0% from the fourth quarter of 2015. Nonfarm business sector productivity grew 0.2% in the year 2016, following a 0.9% increase in 2015.
  • The Employment Cost Index for total compensation rose 0.5%, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending December 2016, following a 0.6% increase for the 3–month period ending September 2016. Compensation costs increased 2.2% for the 12-month period ending December 2016.
  • Unemployment rates were lower in December than a year earlier in 236 of the 387 metropolitan areas, higher in 111 areas, and unchanged in 40 areas. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 292 metropolitan areas, decreased in 87 areas, and was unchanged in 8 areas.
  • Personal income increased 0.3%, in December, while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in December, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The price index excluding food and energy increased 0.1% in December, after holding steady in November. The price index increased 1.6% from December 2015, while the index excluding food and energy increased 1.7%.
  • Sales of domestic cars decreased 10.2% in January, following a 1.5% increase in the previous month. Total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales decreased 4.6% in January, after a 3.4% increase in the previous month. Sales were 17.5 million units in January, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.8 million in January of 2016.
  • New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.3% in December, while shipments increased 2.2%. New orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.4% in the year 2016, and shipments decreased 1.5%.
  • December construction spending was down 0.2% from November, but was up 4.2% from December 2015.
  • The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, increased 1.6% to a reading of 109.0 in December, according to the National Association of Realtors.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates holding steady. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.19% for the week ending February 2, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.72%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 3.2% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 27th.
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had increased in December, decreased to 111.8 in January.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in January, and the overall economy grew for the 92nd consecutive month.
  • In January, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity for the 85th consecutive month.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 0.25% to 0.75%. The Committee indicated that labor market conditions continued to strengthen and economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace.

 

Key Economic Indicators – January 30, 2017

January 27th, 2017
  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2016, after increasing 3.5% in the previous quarter, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • Real final sales of domestic product increased 0.9%, following a 3.0% increase in the previous quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.0% in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter.  The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 2.2%, compared with an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter.
  • Real GDP increased 1.6% in the year 2016, compared with an increase of 2.6% in 2015. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.0% in 2016, compared to an increase of 0.4% in 2015.
  • Current-dollar GDP increased 2.9% in 2016 to a level of $18,566.9 billion, compared with an increase of 3.7% in 2015.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 0.4% in December, while shipments increased 1.4%. New orders in the year 2016 were down 0.3% from 2015, while shipments were down 0.5%.
  • December existing home sales decreased 2.8% to an annualized rate of 5.49 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. The December figure was 0.7 % above the December 2015 figure. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $232.2 thousand, 4.0% above December 2015. The housing inventory at the end of December dropped 10.8% to 1.65 million existing homes for sale. Sales were at 5.45 million units for the year 2016, the highest since 2006.
  • December new home sales decreased 10.4% to an annualized rate of 536 thousand units, following a 4.7% increase in the previous month. The December figure was 0.4% below the December 2015 figure.  The median sales price of new houses sold was $322.5 thousand, 7.9% above December 2015. Sales were 563 thousand units in the year 2016, 12.2% above the previous year.
  • U.S. House prices rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from October to November, after increasing 0.3% in the previous period, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in November, U.S. prices rose 6.1%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates moving higher from the previous week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.19% for the week ending January 24, up from last week when it averaged 4.09%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.79%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 4.0% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 20.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 22 thousand to 259 thousand in the week ending January 21. The 4-week moving average was 245.5 thousand, a decrease of 2 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased sharply in December for the fourth consecutive month. The leading index increased 0.5% in December, following a 0.1% increase in November. Over the last six months of 2016, the index grew 1.4% (about 2.8% annual rate)., much faster than the growth of 0.2% over the first half of the year.
  • The Conference Board coincident economic index increased 0.3% in December, after holding steady in November. The coincident index rose 1.0% (about 2.0% annual rate) during the last six months of 2016, faster than the growth of 0.6% over the first half of the year.
  • The Chicago FED National Activity Index increased to positive 0.14 in December, from negative 0.33 in November. The index’s three-month moving average was negative 0.07, compared with negative 0.14 in November.
  • The Chicago FED’s National Financial Conditions Index was negative 0.79 in the week ending January 20, remaining at its lowest level since July 2015.
  • Fifth District manufacturing activity and service sector activity both strengthen in January, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 98.5 in January 2017, up from 98.2 in December. The index was 92.0 in January of 2016. The index for current economic conditions edged down to 111.3, from 111.9 in December, while the index of consumer expectations increased to 90.3 from 89.5.

 

Key Economic Indicators – January 23, 2017

January 19th, 2017
  • Total Industrial production increased 0.8% in December, following a 0.7% decline in the previous month. The index was 0.5% above the level in December 2015. The manufacturing index was up 0.2% in December, while the index for utilities was up 6.6%. The index for mining held steady in December. Total Industrial production decreased 1.0% in the year 2016, while the manufacturing output increased 0.1%.
  • The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 75.5% in December. compared with 74.9 in November, and 80.0 as the average of the 1972-2015 period.
  • Finance and insurance (9.0%), wholesale trade (8.3%) and information services (8.6%) were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2016, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (15.1%) and utilities (14.2%) were the two fastest growing sectors also contributing to a real GDP growth of 3.5% in the third quarter.
  • Housing starts in December were up 11.3% from the previous month, and were up 5.7% from December 2015. The total number of starts for the year 2016 was up 4.9% from the previous year.  Building permits were down 0.2% from the previous month, but were up 0.7% from a year ago.  Building permits for the year 2016 was up 0.4% from the previous year.
  • The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo decreased 2 points to 67 in January 2017, from 69 in the previous month. The Index was 61 in January of 2016.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of January 19th showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing. 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.09% for the week ending January 19th, down from last week when it averaged 4.12%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.81%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 0.8% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 13th.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 15 thousand to 234 thousand in the week ending January 14. The 4-week moving average was 246.750 thousand, a decrease of 10.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1% from November to December. This result stems from a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
  • The consumer price index (headline index) rose 0.3% in December, while the core index increased 0.2%. The consumer price index increased 2.1% for the 12-month period ending in December, while the core index rose 2.2%.
  • The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that overall economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace across most regions from late November through the end of the year.
  • The January 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity continued to grow modestly in New York State.
  • The Philadelphia FED’s manufacturing business outlook survey for January 2017 reported that economic conditions continued to improve.
  • The Chicago FED’s National Financial Conditions Index remained at negative 0.78 in the week ending January 13.

 

Key Economic Indicators – January 16, 2017

January 13th, 2017
  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for December were up 0.6% from November, and were up 4.1% from December 2015.  Total sales for the year 2016 were up 3.3% from the year 2015.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for November were up 0.1% from October, and were up 2.3% from November 2015. Inventories were up 0.7% from the previous month, and were up 1.5% from a year ago.
  • Sales of merchant wholesalers in November were up 0.4% from the previous month, and were up 3.4% from the November 2015 level. Total inventories were up 1.0% from October, and were up 1.4% from November 2015.
  • The federal government budget ran a deficit of $27.5 billion in December, after a deficit of $136.7 billion in the previous month. The cumulative deficit for the first three months of the fiscal year 2017 was $208.4 billion, compared with the deficit of $215.6 billion for the first three months of the previous fiscal year.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 10 thousand to 247 thousand in the week ending January 7. The 4-week moving average was 256.5 thousand, a decrease of 1.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.2 million and 5.0 million, respectively.
  • The labor Market Conditions Index constructed by the Federal Reserve was negative 0.3 in December. This was the first negative figure since May of 2016.  The index was 2.1 in November of 2016, and 2.4 in December of 2015.
  • The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.3% in December, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core index, final demand less foods and energy, increased 0.2% in December, after a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Both the headline index and the core index increased 1.6% from December 2015 to December 2016.
  • The import price index in December was up 0.4% from November, and was up 1.5% from December of 2016. The export price index was up 0.3% from November, and was up 1.1% from December of 2015.
  • November consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 7.9% to $3,750.0 billion. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.5%, while non-revolving credit increased 5.9%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed fixed mortgage rates falling for the second time since November. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.12% for the week ending January 12, down from last week when it averaged 4.20%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.92%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 5.8% from a week earlier week, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending January 6, 2017.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, was 98.1 in early January, virtually unchanged from the final reading for December (98.2). The index was 92.0 in January of 2016.

 

Key Economic Indicators – January 9, 2017

January 6th, 2017
  • Total non-farm payroll employment increased 156 thousand in December, following an increase of 204 thousand in the previous month.   Private-sector payrolls increased by 144 thousand in the month, while government employment increased by 12 thousand.
  • The number of unemployed persons increased by 120 thousand to 7.529 million. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.7% in December, from 4.6% in November. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December of 2015.
  • The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls held steady at 34.3 hours. Average hourly earnings increased by 10 cents to $26.00, while average weekly earnings decreased by $3.43 to $891.80.  Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.9%, and average weekly earnings were up 2.3%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 28 thousand to 235 thousand in the week ending December 31. The 4-week moving average was 256.75 thousand, a decrease of 5.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • Sales of domestic cars increased 1.3% in December, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales increased 3.1%. Total vehicle sales were 18.3 million units in December, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.7 million in the previous month, and 17.4 million in December of 2015.
  • New orders for manufactured goods decreased 2.4% in November, while shipments decreased 0.1%. Year-to-date, new orders were down 1.8% from the same period in 2015, while shipments were down 2.0%.
  • In November, international trade deficit was $45.2 billion, $2.9 billion more than the revised October figure. The cumulative trade deficit for the first eleven months of 2016 was $454.0 billion, compared with a cumulative deficit of $458.9 billion during the first eleven months of 2015.
  • Construction spending in November was up 0.9% from the previous month, and was up 4.1% from November 2015. Private construction increased 1.0%, while public construction increased 0.8%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of January 5th showed that 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell this week for the first time since November. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.20% for the week ending January 5, 2017, down from last week when it averaged 4.32%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.97%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 12.0% from two weeks earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending December 30.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in December, and the overall economy grew for the 91st consecutive month.
  • In December, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth in the non-manufacturing business activity (exceeded 50.0%) for the 83rd consecutive month. Twelve non-manufacturing industries reported growth, and three industries reported contraction.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank Chicago’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) held steady at negative 0.76 in the week ending December 30. The credit sub-index ticked up from the previous week, while the risk, leverage and nonfinancial leverage sub-indexes were all unchanged.

Key Economic Indicators – January 2, 2017

December 29th, 2016
  • Retail inventories for November, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $609.6 billion, up 1.0% from the previous month, and were up 4.1% from November 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Wholesale inventories for November, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $594.5 billion, up 0.9% from the previous month, and were up 1.2% from November 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • The international trade deficit in goods was $65.3 billion in November, up $3.4 billion from $61.9 in October, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exports of goods for November were $121.7 billion, down $1.2 billion from October. Imports of goods were $187.0 billion in November, up $2.2 billion from the previous month.
  • The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, decreased 2.5% in November, according to the National Association of Realtors. The index was down 0.4% from a year ago.
  • The S & P Corelogic Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Indices posted an annual increase of 5.6% for the 12 months ending in October. The 10-city composite index increased 4.3% from October 2015 to October 2016, while and 20-city composite index increased 5.1%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of December 29th showed average fixed mortgage rates continuing to rise. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.32% for the week ending December 29, up from last week when it averaged 4.30%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 4.01%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.55%, up from last week when it averaged 3.52%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.24%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 2.5% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending December 16th.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 10 thousand to 265 thousand in the week ending December 24. The 4-week moving average was 263 thousand, a decrease of 0.75 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index continued to increase in December. The Index now stands at 113.7, up from 109.4 in November.
  • The Chicago FED’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) held steady at negative 0.77 in the week ending December 23. The credit and leverage sub-indexes decreased slightly from the previous week, while the risk and nonfinancial leverage sub-indexes were unchanged.
  • The Chicago FED’s alternative index or the adjusted index (ANFCI) isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on financial conditions relative to current economic conditions. The ANFCI increased slightly from the previous week to negative 0.17. This indicates that financial conditions in the latest week were somewhat looser than what would be suggested by current economic conditions.

Key Economic Indicators – December 26, 2016

December 23rd, 2016
  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2016, after increasing 1.4% in the previous quarter, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second estimate, released about a month ago, the increase in real GDP was 3.2%.
  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 4.8% in the third quarter, following a 0.7% increase in the previous quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of economic activity, increased 4.1% in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1% in the second quarter.
  • Real final sales of domestic product increased 3.0%, following a 2.6% increase in the previous quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5% in the third quarter, compared to an increase of 2.1% in the previous quarter.  The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.5%, compared with an increase of 2.0%.
  • Corporate profits from current production increased $117.8 billion in the third quarter, after a decrease of $12.5 billion in the previous quarter.
  • Personal income increased less than 0.1% in November, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. Personal consumption expenditures, which increased 0.4% in October, increased 0.2% in November. The price index for personal consumption expenditures and the core index both held steady in November. The price index (headline index) was up 1.4% from November 2015, while the core index was up 1.6%.
  • State personal income growth was 1.1% on average in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2% in the previous quarter.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 4.6% in November, following a 4.8% increase in the previous month. Shipments increased 0.1%, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. Year-to-date new orders were down 0.3%, while shipments were down 0.8%.
  • November existing home sales increased 0.7% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 5.61 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. This represents a 15.4% increase from a year ago. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $234.9 thousand, 6.8% above November 2015. There were 1.85 million existing homes for sale at the end of the month (9.3% lower than a year ago). This represents a supply of 4.0 months at the current sales rate, compared with 4.3 months in October.
  • November new home sales increased 5.2% to an annualized rate of 592 thousand units. The November figure was 16.5% above the November 2015 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold was $305.4 thousand, down 3.7% from a year ago.
  • U.S. House prices rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from September to October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in October, U.S. prices rose 6.1%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of December 22nd showed average fixed mortgage rates moving higher for the eighth consecutive week. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.30% for the week ending December 22, up from last week when it averaged 4.16%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.96%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 2.5% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending December 16th.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 21 thousand to 275 thousand in the week ending December 17. The 4-week moving average was 263.75 thousand, an increase of 6 thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • Unemployment rates were significantly lower in November in 18 states and stable in 32 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In November, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 9 states, decreased in 2 states, and was essentially unchanged in 39 states and the District of Columbia.
  • The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators held steady in November, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Over the six-month span through November, the leading index increased 1.0% (about a 2.0% annual rate). The coincident index increased 0.1% in November, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. During the six-month period through November, the coincident index increased 0.6% (about a 1.2% annual rate).
  • The Chicago FED National Activity Index decreased to negative 0.27 in November from negative 0.05 in October. The index’s three-month moving average was negative 0.14, compared with negative 0.20 in October.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 98.2 in December, from 93.8 in November. The index was 92.6 a year ago.

Key Economic Indicators – December 19, 2016

December 16th, 2016
  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for November were up 0.1% from the previous month, and were up 3.8% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales were up 0.2% from October, and were up 3.9% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 3.1% from the first eleven months of 2015.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for October were up 0.8% from September, while inventories were down 0.2%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.37 in October, compared with 1.39 a year ago.
  • Total Industrial production decreased 0.4% in November, following a 0.1% increase in October. Total industrial production in November was 0.6% below its level a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization decreased 0.4 percentage point to 75.0%, 5.0 percentage points below its 1972-2015 average.
  • The U.S. current account deficit decreased to $113.0 billion in the third quarter of 2016, from $118.3 billion in the previous quarter. The deficit decreased to 2.4% of GDP, from 2.6% of GDP in the second quarter.
  • The federal budget had a deficit of $136.7 billion in November, compared with a deficit of $44.2 billion in October and a deficit of $65.5 billion in November of 2015.
  • Housing starts in November were down 18.7% from the previous month, and were down 6.9% from November 2015. Building permits in November were down 4.7% from the previous month, and were down 6.6% from a year ago.
  • The National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index increased 7 points to 70 in December. The index was 63 in the previous month, and 60 in December of 2015.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates rising. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.16% for the week ending December 15th, up from last week when it averaged 4.13%.  A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.97%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 4.0% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending December 9th.
  • The consumer price index increased 0.2% in November, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. The core index increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.7% for the 12-month period ending in November, while the core index rose 2.1%.
  • The producer price index for total final demand increased 0.4% in November, after holding steady in October.  The index for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.3% from November 2015 to November 2016.
  • The import price index decreased 0.3% in November, while the export price index decreased 0.1%. The import price index decreased 0.1% from November 2015 to November 2016, while the price index for exports decreased 0.3%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 254 thousand in the week ending December 10, a decrease of 4 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 257.75 thousand, an increase of 5.25 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4% from October to November. This result stems from 0.1% decrease in average hourly earnings, being more than offset by a 0.2% increase in the consumer price index.
  • The December 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity grew modestly for New York manufacturers. The headline index, which was 1.5 in November, increased to 9.0 in December.
  • The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey indicated that regional manufacturing activity picked up in December.  The headline index rose to 21.5 in December, from 7.6 in November.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 0.25% to 0.75%. The Committee stated that “The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation.”