August 14th, 2015
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for July were up 0.6% from the previous month, and were up 2.4% from July 2014.
- Sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, increased 0.1% in June, while inventories increased 0.9%. Sales were down 3.8% from June 2014, while inventories were up 5.4%.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales for June were up 0.2%, while inventories were up 0.8%.
- Total Industrial production increased 0.6% in July, after increasing 0.1% in the previous month. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3% percentage point in July to 78.0%, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2014) average.
- Second quarter productivity increased 1.3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the non-farm business sector, following a 1.1% decrease in the previous period. Productivity was up 0.3% from the second quarter of 2014.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 5 thousand to 274 thousand in the week ending August 8th. The 4-week moving average was 266.25 thousand, a decrease of 1.75 from the previous week’s average.
- The number of job openings was little changed at 5.2 million on the last business day of June. The number of hires and separations were little changed at 5.2 million and 4.9 million, respectively.
- The federal government budget ran a deficit of $149.1 billion in July, following a surplus of $50.5 billion in the previous month. The cumulative budget deficit for the first ten months of fiscal year was $465.5 billion, compared with the deficit of $460.5 billion for the same period of the previous fiscal year.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 13th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving higher for the first time in four weeks. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.94% for the week ending August 13, up from last week when it averaged 3.91%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.12%.
- Mortgage applications increased 0.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 7th.
- The producer price index for final demand increased 0.2% in July, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. The index for final demand for goods less foods and energy were unchanged. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.8% from July 2014 to July 2015, while prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.9%.
- The import price index decreased 0.9% in July, while the export price index decreased 0.2%. The import price index decreased 10.4% from July 2014, while the price index for overall exports decreased 6.1%.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, was virtually unchanged in early August. The index now stands at 92.9, compared with 93.1 in July, and 82.5 a year ago.
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August 7th, 2015
- Total non-farm payroll employment rose 215 thousand in July, following an increase of 231 thousand in the previous month. Private-sector payrolls increased by 210 thousand in the month, while government employment increased by 5 thousand.
- The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3%.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased 0.1 to 36.4 hours.
- Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 5 cents to $24.99. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.1%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 3 thousand to 270 thousand in the week ending August 1st. The 4-week moving average was 268.25 thousand, a decrease of 6.5 thousand from the previous week’s average of 274.75 thousand.
- Personal income increased 0.4%, in June, while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%. The price index (headline index) for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in June, while the core index increased 0.1%. The price index (headline index) for personal consumption expenditures was up 0.3% from June 2014, while the core index was up 1.3%.
- New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.8% in June, while shipments increased 0.5%. Year-to-date orders manufacturing orders were down 5.9% from a year ago, while shipments were down 3.6%.
- Sales of domestic cars increased 6.0% in July, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales increased 3.0%. Total vehicle sales were 17.5 million units in July, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 16.4 million in July of 2014.
- In June, international trade deficit was $43.8 billion, $2.9 billion more than the revised May figure. The cumulative deficit for the first half of 2015 was $255.7 billion, compared with the deficit of $254.1 billion for the first half of 2014.
- May consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 8.3%. Revolving credits increased at an annual rate of 9.3%, while non-revolving credits increased 7.9%.
- Construction spending in June was up 0.1% from the previous month, and was up 12.0% from June 2014. Private construction decreased 0.5% in June, while public construction increased 1.6%.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 6th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving down for the third week in a row. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.91% for the week ending August 6th, down from last week when it averaged 3.98%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 4.14%.
- Mortgage applications increased 4.7% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 31st.
- The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the 31st consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 74th consecutive month.
- In July, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth for the 66th consecutive month.
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July 31st, 2015
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the second quarter, after increasing at 0.6% in the previous quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4% in the second quarter, compared to a decrease of 1.6% in the previous quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product – GDP less change in private inventories – increased 2.4% in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2% in the first quarter.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 12 thousand to 267 thousand in the week ending July 25th. The 4-week moving average was 274.75 thousand, a decrease of 3.75 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- The Employment Cost Index for total compensation rose 0.2% for the 3-month period ending June, following a 0.7% increase for the 3-month period ending March. Compensation costs rose 2.0% for the 12-month period ending June, compared with a 2.6% increase for the 12-month period ending March.
- New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 3.4% in June, while shipments increased 0.1%. Year-to-date new orders decreased 2.0% from the same period a year ago, while shipments increased 2.8%.
- The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, decreased 1.8% in June, after five consecutive months of increases.
- The S & P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index posted annual increases of 4.7% and 4.9% in the 12 months ending in May, for the 10-city and 20-city composite indices, respectively. As of May 2015, both composite indexes were back to their winter 2005 levels, and were about 12-15% below their June/July 2006 peaks.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 30th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving down. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.98% for the week ending July 30, down from last week when it averaged 4.04%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 4.12%.
- Mortgage applications increased 0.8% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 24th.
- The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had improved in June, declined in July.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment slipped in July.
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25%. “The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.”
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July 24th, 2015
- June existing home sales were up 3.2% from the previous month, and were up 9.6% from June 2014. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $236.4 thousand, 6.5% above June 2014. There were 2,300 thousand homes for sale at the end of the month. This represents a supply of 5.0 months at the current sales rate, compared to 5.5 in June of 2014.
- June new home sales were down 6.8% from the previous month, but were up 18.1% from June 2014 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold was $281.8 thousand, 1.8% below June 2014.
- U.S. House prices rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from April to May, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in May, U.S. prices rose 5.7%. The index is 1.8% below its March 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the April 2006 index level.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 23rd showed average fixed mortgage rates reversing course and moving lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.04% for the week ending July 23, down from last week when it averaged 4.09%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.13%.
- Mortgage applications increased 0.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 17th.
- A deceleration in nondurable goods manufacturing and downturns in both professional, scientific and technical services and wholesale trade were the leading contributors to the downturn in U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of 2015, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 26 thousand to 255 thousand in the week ending July 18th. This was the lowest level for initial claims since November 24, 1973 when it was 233 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 278.5 thousand, a decrease of 4 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from May, 12 states had increases, and 17 states had no change. In June, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 31 states, decreased in 17 states and the District of Columbia, and was unchanged in 2 states.
- The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.6% in June, following a 0.8% increase in the previous month. The coincident index increased 0.2%, the same increase as in the previous month.
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July 17th, 2015
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for June were down 0.3% from the previous month, but were up 1.4% from June 2014. Excluding autos, retail sales were down 0.1% from the previous month, but were up 0.1% from a year ago. Year-to-date retail and food services were up 2.0% from the first half of 2014.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales for May were up 0.4% from April, but were down 2.2% from May 2014. Inventories were up 0.3% from April, and were up 2.4% from May 2014.
- Total Industrial production rose 0.3% in June, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 78.4%, up 2.6% from June 2014.
- Housing starts for June were up 9.8% from the previous month, and were up 26.6% from a year ago. Building permits in June were up 7.4% from May, and were up 30.0% from June 2014.
- The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo was unchanged at 60 in July. The index was 57 in January, and 53 in July of 2014.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 16th showed average fixed mortgage rates reversing course and moving to their highest level this year. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.09% for the week ending July 16, up from last week when it averaged 4.04%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 1.9% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 10th.
- The federal government budget ran a surplus of $51.8 billion in June, following a deficit of $82.4 billion in the previous month. The cumulative budget deficit for the first nine months of fiscal year was $313.4 billion.
- The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.4% in June, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. The core index increased 0.4%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.7% from June 2014 to June 2015.
- The import price index decreased 0.1% in June, while export prices decreased 0.2%. The import price index decreased 10.0% from June 2014, while export prices decreased 5.7%.
- The consumer price index (headline index) increased 0.3% in June, while the core index increased 0.2%. The consumer price index increased 0.1% for the 12-month period ending in June, while the core index rose 1.8%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 15 thousand to 281 thousand in the week ending July 11th. The 4-week moving average was 282.5 thousand, an increase of 3.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- The number of job openings was little changed at 5.4 million on the last business day of May, the highest since the series began in December 2000.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4% from May to June. This stems from no change in average hourly earnings being combined with a 0.3% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- The July 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business conditions improved slightly for New York manufacturers.
- The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey reported that manufacturing activity increased modestly in July.
- The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated that overall economic activity expanded in all twelve Federal Reserve Districts from mid-May through June.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, decreased slightly in early July.
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July 10th, 2015
- Sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices in May were up 0.3% from April, while inventories were up 0.8%. Sales were down 3.8% from May 2014, while inventories were up 5.0%.
- In May international trade deficit was $41.9 billion, up $1.2 billion from $40.7 billion in April. Year-to-date, the deficit was $212.8 billion, up $1.1 billion from the same period in 2014.
- May consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 5.7%. Revolving credits increased at an annual rate of 2.1%, while non-revolving credits increased 7.0%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 15 thousand to 297 thousand in the week ending July 4th. The 4-week moving average was 279.5 thousand, an increase of 4.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 9th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.04% for the week ending July 9th, down from last week when it averaged 4.08%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.15%.
- Mortgage applications increased 4.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 8th.
- In June, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results indicated growth for the 65th consecutive month.
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July 5th, 2015
- Total non-farm payroll employment rose 223 thousand in June, compared with an average monthly gain of 250 thousand over the prior 12 months.
- The unemployment rate decreased to 5.3% in June, from 5.5% in May.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings held steady at $24.01. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.0%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 10 thousand to 281 thousand in the week ending June 27th. The 4-week moving average was 274.75 thousand, an increase of a thousand from the previous week’s average.
- Sales of domestic cars decreased 0.4% in June, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales decreased 0.3%. Total vehicle sales were 17.1 million units in June, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 16.8 million in June of last year.
- New orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.0% in May, while shipments decreased 0.1%. Year-to-date, new orders were down 6.1% from the same period a year ago, while shipments were down 3.8%.
- Construction spending in May was up 0.5% from the previous month, and was up 8.2% from May 2014. Private construction increased 0.9% in May, while public construction increased 0.7%.
- The S & P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index posted annual increases of 4.6% and 4.9% in the 12 months ending in April, for the 10-city and 20-city composite indices, respectively. As of April 2015, both composite indexes were back to their autumn 2004 levels, and were about 14-16% below their June/July 2006 peaks.
- The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, increased 0.9% to a reading of 112.6 in May, its highest level since April 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors. The index was up 10.4% from May 2014.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of July 2nd showed average fixed mortgage rates reaching new 2015 highs. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.08% for the week ending July2, up from last week when it averaged 4.02%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.12%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 4.7% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 26th.
- The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the 30th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 73rd consecutive month.
- The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had improved moderately in May, increased further in June.
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June 28th, 2015
- Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015, after increasing at 2.2% in the previous quarter. In the “second” estimate released a month ago, the decrease in real GDPO was 0.7%.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.6% in the first quarter, compared to a decrease of 0.1% in the previous quarter.
- Corporate profits from current production decreased $110.8 billion in the first quarter, after a decrease of $30.4 billion in the previous quarter
- Personal income increased 0.5%, in May, while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.9%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% in May. The price index (headline index) was up 0.2% from May 2014, while the core index was up 1.2%.
- New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.8% in May, while Shipments decreased 0.1%. Excluding transportation new orders were up 0.5% in May, while shipments were up 0.3%. Year to date new orders were down 2.2% from the same period a year ago, while shipments were up 2.8%.
- May existing home sales were up 5.1% from the previous month, and were up 9.2% from a year ago. There were 2,290 thousand homes for sale at the end of the month. This represents a supply of 5.1 months at the current sales rate, compared to 5.5 in May of 2014. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $228.7 thousand, 7.9% above May 2014.
- May new home sales increased 2.2% from the previous month, and were up 19.5% from a year ago. The median sales price was $282.8 thousand, 1.0% below the May 2014 figure.
- U.S. House prices rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from March to April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA). For the 12 months ending in April, U.S. prices rose 5.3%. The index is now 2.3% below its March 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the February 2006 index level.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates little changed from the previous week. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.02% for the week ending June 25, up from last week when it averaged 4.00%. A year ago this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.14%.
- Mortgage applications increased 1.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 19th.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 3 thousand to 271 thousand in the week ending June 20. The 4-week moving average was 273.75 thousand, a decrease of 3.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 96.1 in June, from 90.7 in May. The index was 82.5 in June of 2014.
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June 18th, 2015
- Total Industrial production decreased 0.1% in May, following a 0.5% decrease in the previous month. The index of industrial production in May was 1.4% above its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 78.1%, two percentage points below its 1972-2014 average, and one percentage point below its level in May 2014.
- Housing starts in May were down 11.1% from the previous month, but were up 5.1% from a year ago. Building permits were up 11.8% from the previous month, and were up 25.4% from May 2014.
- The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo increased 5 points to 59 in June.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of June 18th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.00% for the week ending June 18th, down from last week when it averaged 4.04%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.17%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 5.5% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 12th.
- The current account deficit increased to $113.3 billion in the first quarter, from $103.1 billion in the previous quarter. The deficit increased to 2.6% of GDP in the first quarter of 2015, from 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2014.
- The consumer price index increased 0.4% in May, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The core index increased 0.1%, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index was unchanged for the 12-month period ending in May, while the core index rose 1.7%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 12 thousand to 267 thousand in the week ending June 13th. The 4-week moving average was 276.75 thousand, a decrease of 2 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1% from April to May. This result stems from a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings being more than offset by a 0.4% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- The June 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business conditions worsened slightly for New York manufacturers.
- The PhiladelphiaFEDbusiness outlook survey reported that manufacturing conditions in the region improved in June.
- The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators increased 0.7% in May, while the coincident index increased 0.1%.
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25%. “The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.”
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June 12th, 2015
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for May were up 1.2% from the previous month, and were up 2.7% from May 2014.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales for April were up 0.6%, while inventories were up 0.4%.
- Sales of merchant wholesalers in April were up 1.6% while inventories were up 0.4%.
- The producer price index for final demand increased 0.5% in May, following a decrease of 0.4% in the previous month. The price index for final demand goods excluding food and energy increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand decreased 1.1% from May 2014 to May 2015.
- The import price index increased 1.3% in May, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. The overall import price index decreased 9.6% from May 2014. The export price index increased 0.6% in May, following a 0.7% decrease in the previous month. The price index for overall exports decreased 5.9% from May 2014.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 2 thousand to 279 thousand in the week ending June 6. The 4-week moving average was 278.75 thousand, an increase of 3.75 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates reaching new highs for 2015. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.04% for the week ending June 11, up from last week when it averaged 3.87%. A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.20%.
- Mortgage applications increased 8.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 5th.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, rebounded in early June, regaining its average level recorded since the start of the year.
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