August 16th, 2019
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for July were up 0.7% from the previous month and were up 3.4% from July 2018. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 3.1% from the same period a year ago.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales for June were up 0.1%, while inventories held steady. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of June was 1.39, compared with 1.34 in June 2018.
- Total Industrial production decreased 0.2% in July, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The index of industrial production in July was 0.5% above its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 77.5%, 2.3 percentage points below its 1972-2018 average, and 1.3 percentage points below its level in July 2018.
- The import price index increased 0.2% in July, following a 1.1% decrease in the previous month. The export price index increased 0.2%, following a 0.6% decrease in the previous month. The import price index decreased 1.8% from July 2018, while export prices decreased 0.9%.
- The consumer price index increased 0.3% in July, after an increase of 0.1% in the previous month. The core index increased 0.3%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index (headline index) increased 1.8% for the 12-month period ending in July, and the core index rose 2.2%.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1% from June to July. This result stems from a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.3% in the second quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output increased 1.9% and hours worked decreased 0.4%. From the second quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2019, productivity increased 1.8%, reflecting a 2.6% increase in output and a 0.8% increase in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 2.4% in the second quarter of 2019 and increased 2.5% over a year ago.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 220 thousand in the week ending August 10, an increase of 9 thousand from the previous week’s level. The 4-week moving average was 213.75 thousand, an increase of a thousand from the previous week’s average.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates remained near historical lows. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.60% for the week ending August 15, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 4.53%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.07%, up from last week when it averaged 3.05%. year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 4.01%.
- Mortgage applications increased 21.7% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 9th.
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August 10th, 2019
- Sales of merchant wholesalers in June were down 0.3% from the previous month and were down 0.2% from June of 2018. Sales of durable goods were up 0.2%, while sales of nondurable goods were down 0.7%. Inventories of merchant wholesalers were up less than 0.1% from the previous month and were up 7.6% from a year ago. The June inventories/sales ratio was 1.36, compared with 1.26 a year ago.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates dropped significantly. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.60% for the week ending August 8, down from last week when it averaged 3.75%. This was the lowest rate since November 2016. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.05%, down from last week when it averaged 3.20%.
- Mortgage applications increased 5.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 2nd.
- The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.2% in July, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.1%, after holding steady in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.7% for the 12 months ended in July. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade also increased 1.7% during the same period.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 8 thousand to 209 thousand in the week ending August 3. The 4-week moving average was 212.25 thousand, an increase of 0.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- The number of job openings little changed at 7.3 million on the last business day of June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.5 million, respectively.
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August 4th, 2019
- Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 164 thousand in July, following an increase of 193 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 148 thousand in July, while government employment increased by 16 thousand. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and financial activities.
- The unemployment rate held steady at 3.9% in July. The unemployment rate was 3.9% in July 2018.
- The number of unemployed increased by 88 thousand to 6.063 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 248 thousand to 1.166 million and accounted for 19.2% of the unemployed.
- The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage point to 63.0% in July.
- The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours.
- In July, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 8 cents to $27.98. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 3.2%.
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2% to 2,25%.
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July 27th, 2019
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019, according to the “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1%.
- Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) increased 5.4% in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.7% in the first quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8% in the previous quarter.
- The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.3%, compared with an increase of 0.4% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.8%, compared with an increase of 1.1%.
- Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP by state growth in the first quarter ranged from 5.2% in West Virginia to 1.2% in Hawaii.
- From September 2018 to December 2018, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 7.7 million, an increase of 281,000 jobs from the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 6.9 million, a decrease of 506,000 jobs from the previous quarter. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses yielded a net employment gain of 814,000 jobs in the private sector during the fourth quarter of 2018.
- Labor productivity rose 1.6% in wholesale trade, 3.2% in retail trade, and 1.6% in food services and drinking places in 2018, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unit labor costs, which reflect the total labor costs required to produce a unit of output, rose in wholesale trade and food services and drinking places and were unchanged in retail trade.
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July 20th, 2019
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales increased 0.4% in June, the same increase as in the previous month. Sales were up 3.4% from a year ago.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales were up 0.2% in May, and inventories were up 0.3% in May.
- Total Industrial production held steady in June, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. The index of industrial production in June was 1.3% above its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 77.9%, 1.9 percentage points below its 1972-2018 average, and 0.7 percentage point below its level in June 2018.
- Finance and insurance, retail trade, and health care and social assistance were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the firsquarter of 2019, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 16 of 22 industry groups contributed to the overall 3.1% increase in real GDP in the first quarter. For the finance and insurance industry group, real value added increased 9.5% in the first quarter, after decreasing 6.2% in the fourth quarter. Retail trade increased 11.9% in the first quarter, after decreasing 2.5% in the fourth. Health care and social assistance increased 6.2%, after increasing 2.4%. This was the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2008.
- Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 117.6 million full-time wage and salary workers were $908 in the second quarter of 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was 3.7% higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 1.8% in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period.
- Unemployment rates were lower in June in 6 states and stable in 44 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Three states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 47 states and the District had little or no change.
- Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 4 states in June 2019 and was essentially unchanged in 46 states and the District of Columbia. Over the year, 28 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 22 states and the District were essentially unchanged.
- The import price index decreased 0.9% in June, after holding steady in the previous month. The export price index decreased 0.7%, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. The import price index decreased 2.0% from June 2018, while export prices decreased 1.6%.
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July 12th, 2019
- The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.1% in June, the same increase as in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade held steady, after an increase of 0.4% in May. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.7% for the 12 months ended in June, and the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 2.1%.
- The consumer price index increased 0.1% in June, the same increase as in the previous month. The core index increased 0.3%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.6% for the 12-month period ending in June, while the core index rose 2.1%.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% from May to June. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- The number of job openings was little changed at 7.3 million on the last business day of May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hires decreased to 5.7 million, and separations edged down to 5.5 million.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 13 thousand to 209 thousand in the week ending July 6. The 4-week moving average was 219.25 thousand, a decrease of 3.25 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 29 was 1,723 thousand, an increase of 27 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,694.75 thousand, an increase of 5.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
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July 5th, 2019
- Total non-farm payroll employment rose 224 thousand in June, following an increase of 72 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 191 thousand in May, while government employment increased by 33 thousand.
- The unemployment rate edged up to 3.7% in June, from 3.6% in May. The unemployment rate was 4.0% in June 2018.
- The labor force participation rate edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 62.9% in June.
- The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls held steady at 34.4 hours in June.
- In June, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 6 cents to $27.90. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 3.1%.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 8 thousand to 221 thousand in the week ending June 29. The 4-week moving average was 222.25 thousand, an increase of 0.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.
- Unemployment rates were lower in May than a year earlier in 254 of the 389 metropolitan areas, higher in 94 areas, and unchanged in 41 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 46 metropolitan areas, decreased in 2 areas, and was essentially unchanged in 341 areas.
- In May, international trade deficit in goods and services was $55.5 billion, up $4.3 billion from April. May exports were $210.6 billion, $4.2 billion more than April exports. May imports were $266.2 billion, $8.5 billion more than April imports.
- New orders for manufactured goods in May decreased 0.7%, following a 1.2% April decrease according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Shipments increased 0.1%, following a 0.6% decrease in the previous month. The inventories‐to‐shipments ratio was 1.38, up from 1.37 in April.
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June 28th, 2019
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the “third” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2%.
- Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.0% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.1% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3% in the final quarter of 2018.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7% in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.5%, compared with an increase of 1.5%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.2%, compared with an increase of 1.8%.
- Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $59.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter.
- Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $1.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $68.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $13.6 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $7.4 billion, compared with an increase of $1.9 billion.
- State personal income increased 3.4% at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2019, a deceleration from the 4.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income increased in all states except South Dakota. The percent change in personal income across all states ranged from 5.6% in West Virginia to negative 0.6% in South Dakota.
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June 21st, 2019
- The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $130.4 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2019 from $143.9 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit decreased to 2.5% of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.8% in the previous quarter. The $13.5 billion decrease in the current-account deficit mostly reflected a decrease in the in the deficit on goods that was partly offset by an increase in the deficit on secondary income.
- May existing home sales increased 2.5% to an annualized rate of 5,340 thousand units. The May figure was 1.1% below the May 2018 figure. There were 1,920 thousand homes for sale at the end of the month. This represents a supply of 4.3 months at the current sales rate, compared to 4.2 in May of 2018. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $277.7 thousand, 4.8% above May 2018.
- Housing starts in May were down 0.9% from the previous month and were down 4.7% from a year ago. Year-to-date, housing starts were down 5.3% from the same period a year ago. Building permits were up 0.3% from the previous month but were down 0.5% from May 2018. Year-to-date, building permits were down 3.0% from the same period a year ago.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates have stabilized. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.84% for the week ending June 20, up from last week when it averaged 3.82%. A year ago this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.57%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.25% for the week ending June 20, down from last week when it averaged 3.26%. A year ago this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 4.04%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 3.4% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 14th.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 5 thousand to 216 thousand in the week ending June 15. The 4-week moving average was 218.75 thousand, an increase of a thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 8 was 1,662 thousand, a decrease of 37 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,679 thousand, a decrease of 5.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
- Unemployment rates were lower in May in 6 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Five states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 1 state had an increase, and 44 states and the District had little or no change. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 1 state in May and was essentially unchanged in 49 states and the District of Columbia. Over the year, 24 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 26 states and the District of Columbia were essentially unchanged.
- Employer costs for employee compensation for civilian workers averaged $36.77 per hour worked in March 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages and salaries cost employers $25.22 while benefit costs were $11.55. Total compensation costs for civilian workers were $12.71 at the 10th wage percentile, $27.87 at the 50th (median) wage percentile, and $72.62 at the 90th wage percentile. Total employer compensation costs for private industry workers averaged $34.49 per hour worked. Wages and salaries averaged $24.17 per hour worked and accounted for 70.1% of employer costs. Benefit costs averaged $10.33 per hour worked and accounted for the remaining 29.9%. Median employer costs per employee hour worked were $17.64 for wages and salaries and $7.57 for benefits. State and local government worker compensation costs for employers averaged $50.89 per hour worked in March 2019. Wages and salaries averaged $31.75 and accounted for 62.4% of employer costs, while benefit costs averaged $19.14 and accounted for 37.6%.
- The June 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity took a sharp turn downward for New York manufacturers. The headline (general business conditions) index decreased from 17.8 in May to negative 8.6 in June. The prices paid index edged up 1.6 points to 27.8 in June, and the prices received index decreased 5.6 points to 6.8.
- The PhiladelphiaFEDbusiness outlook survey reported that manufacturing activity in the region weakened in June. The general business activity index decreased from 16.6 in May to 0.3 in June. The prices paid index decreased from 23.2 in May to 12.9 in June, while prices received index decreased from 17.5 to 0.6.
- The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators held steady in May, following an increase of 0.1% in the previous month. Over the six-month span through May, the leading index increased 0.3% (about a 0.5% annual rate), with five out of ten components advancing. The Conference Board coincident economic index increased 0.2% in May, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Over the six-month span through May, the coincident index increased 0.7%% (about a 1.3% annual rate), with three out of four components advancing.
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25% to 2.50%. “The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”
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June 15th, 2019
- The producer price index for final demand increased 0.1% in May, following an increase of 0.2% in the previous month. The price index for final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade increased 0.4%, the same increase as in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand increased 1.8% from May 2018 to May 2019, while the index for final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade increased 2.3%.
- The import price index decreased 0.3% in May, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The overall import price index decreased 1.5% from May 2018. The export price index decreased 0.2% in May, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The price index for overall exports decreased 0.7% from May 2018.
- The consumer price index increased 0.1% in May, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month. The core index, all items less food and energy, increased 0.1%, the same increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 1.8% for the 12-month period ending in May, while the core index rose 2.0%.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2% from April to May. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hires increased to 5.9 million, and separations were little changed at 5.6 million.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 3 thousand to 222 thousand in the week ending June 8. The 4-week moving average was 217.75 thousand, an increase of 2.5 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending June 1 was 1,695 thousand, an increase of 2 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 1,683.25 thousand, an increase of 7.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
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