Archive for October, 2015

Key Economic Indicators – November 2, 2015

Friday, October 30th, 2015
  • Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.5% in the third quarter of 2014, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, after increasing 3.9% in the previous quarter.
  • Real final sales of domestic product were up 3.0%, compared with a 3.9% increase in the previous quarter.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3% in the third quarter, compared to an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter. 
  • Personal income and personal consumption expenditures both increased 0.1% in September. Real disposable personal income and real personal consumption expenditures both increased 0.2%.
  • The price index for personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.1% in September, while the core index increased 0.1%.  The price index (headline index) was up 0.2% from September 2014, while the core index was up 1.3%.
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.2% in September, following a 3.0% decrease in the previous month, according to the Census Bureau. Shipments increased 0.2% in September, following a 0.5% decrease in the previous month. Year-to-date, new orders were down 4.6% from the same period a year ago, while shipments were up 2.1%.
  • September new home sales were down 11.5% from the previous month, but were up 2.0% from September 2014 figure, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The median sales price of new houses sold was $296.9 thousand, 13.5% above September 2014.
  • The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, decreased 2.3% in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. The index was up 3.0% from September 2014.
  • The S & P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Indices show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. The index posted an annual increase of 4.7% in August, compared with 4.6% in July. As of August 2015, average home prices are back to their levels posted in the winter of 2007, and approximately 11-13% below their June/July 2006 peaks.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 29th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving slightly lower. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.76% for the week ending October 29, down from last week when it averaged 3.79%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.98%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 3.5% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 23rd.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased a thousand to 260 thousand in the week ending October 24, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average was 259.25 thousand, a decrease of 4 thousand from the previous week’s average. This was the lowest level since December 15, 1973 when it was 256.75 thousand.
  • The Employment Cost Index for total compensation rose 0.6%, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending September 2015, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.0% for the 12-month period ending September 2015.
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had increased moderately in September, declined in October. The index now stands at 97.6 (1985=100), down from 102.6 in September.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 90.0 in October, from 87.2 in September. The index was 86.9 in October of 2014.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25%, and indicated that “economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below the Committee views as normal in the long run.”
  • The Texas Business Outlook Surveys point to continued weakness in the manufacturing sector and moderate strength in services, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Fifth District manufacturing activity remained soft in October, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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Key Economic Indicators – October 26, 2015

Saturday, October 24th, 2015
  • Housing starts in September were up 6.5% from the previous month, and were up 17.5% from a year ago.  Building permits for September were down 5.0% from the previous month, but were up 4.7% from September 2014.
  • September existing home sales were up 4.7% from the previous month, and were up 8.8% from September 2014, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median sales price of existing houses sold was $221.9 thousand, 6.1% above September 2014. There were 2,210 thousand homes for sale at the end of the month. This represents a supply of 4.8 months at the current sales rate, compared to 5.4 in September of 2014.
  • The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo increased 3 points to 64 in October. The index was 57 in January and 54 in October of 2014.
  • U.S. House prices rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July to August, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. For the 12 months ending in August, house prices rose 5.5%. The index is 0.9% below its March 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the December 2006 index level.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 22nd showed average fixed mortgage rates declining. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.79% for the week ending October 22nd, down from last week when it averaged 3.82%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.92%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 11.8% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 16th.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 3 thousand to 259 thousand in the week ending October 17th, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average was 263.25 thousand, a decrease of 2 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. This was the lowest level for this average since December 15, 1973 when it was 256.75 thousand.
  • Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Thirty-seven states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from August, six states had increases, and seven states had no change. In September, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 27 states, increased in 20 states and the District of Columbia, and remained unchanged in 3 states.
  • Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 110.4 million full-time wage and salary workers were $803 in the third quarter of 2015, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, up 1.6% from a year earlier.
  • The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators, which held steady in July and August, decreased 0.2% in September.  The coincident index increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month..
  • Chicago FED National Activity Index was negative 0.37 in September, compared with negative 0.39 in August and positive 0.49 in July. The index was 0.19 in September of 2014.
  • Kansas City FED Manufacturing Index revealed that economic activity in the Tenth District was weak and was expected to remain largely unchanged heading forward. The index was negative 1 in October, up from negative 8 in September, and negative 9 in August. The index was 3 in January 2015, and 4 in October of 2014.

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Key Economic Indicators – October 19, 2015

Friday, October 16th, 2015
  • Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for September were up 0.1% from the previous month, and were up 2.4% from September 2014.  Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales were down 0.3% from the previous month, but were up 0.8% from a year ago.
  • Total manufacturing and trade sales for August were down 0.6% from the previous month, and were down 3.1% from a year ago.  Inventories in August were up less than 0.1%, and were up 2.4% from August 2014.
  • Total Industrial production decreased 0.2% in September, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The rate of capacity utilization was 77.5%, compared with 77.8 in the previous month.
  • The federal government budget ran a surplus of $91.1 billion in September, after a deficit of $64.4 billion in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Fiscal Service, Department of the Treasury. The federal budget deficit was $438.9 billion for the fiscal year 2015, compared with a deficit of $483.4 billion for the fiscal year 2014.
  • The producer price index for final demand, which held steady in August, decreased 0.5% in September. The core index, final demand for goods less food and energy, held steady in September. The producer price index for final demand decreased 1.1% from September 2014 to September 2015.
  •  The consumer price index (headline index) decreased 0.2% in September, following a 0.1% decrease in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core index, which increased 0.1% in August, increased 0.2% in September. The consumer price index was unchanged from September 2014, while the core index increased 1.9%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 7 thousand to 255 thousand in the week ending October 10th, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average was 265 thousand, a decrease of 2.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. This was the lowest level for this average since December 15, 1973 when it was 256.75 thousand.
  • Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1% from August to September, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This result stems from unchanged average hourly earnings combined with a 0.2% decrease in the consumer price index for all urban consumers. Real average hourly earnings rose 2.2% from September 2014 to September 2015.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 15th showed average fixed mortgage rates moving slightly higher. 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.82% for the week ending October 15th, up from last week when it averaged 3.76%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.97%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 27.6% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 9th.
  • The October 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity declined for a third consecutive month for New York manufacturers.
  • The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey for October indicated weaker activity for the region’s manufacturing sector.
  • The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for October was 92.1, up from 87.2 in September.
  • The FED’s “Beige Book” indicated a continued modest expansion in economic activity during the reporting period from mid-August through early October.

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Key Economic Indicators – October 12, 2015

Friday, October 9th, 2015
  • Sales of domestic cars increased 2.6% in September, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales increased 1.9%. Total vehicle sales were 18.1 million units in September, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.7 million in the previous month, and 16.4 million in September of 2014.
  • Sales of merchant wholesalers in August were down 1.0% from the previous month, and were down 4.7% from August 2014.  Inventories were up 0.1% from the previous month, and were up 4.1% from a year ago.  The August inventories/sales ratio was 1.31, compared with 1.20 a year ago.
  • In August, international trade deficit was $48.3 billion, $6.5 billion more than the July figure. The cumulative trade deficit for the first eight months of 2015 was $354.4 billion, compared with a cumulative deficit of $336.8 billion during the first eight months of 2014.
  • The import price index decreased 0.1% in September, following a 1.6% decrease in the previous month. Export prices decreased 0.7%, following a 1.4% decrease in the previous month. The import price index decreased 10.7% from September 2014, while the price index for exports decreased 7.4%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 13 thousand to 263 thousand in the week ending October 3rd. The 4-week moving average was 267.5 thousand, a decrease of 3 thousand from the previous week’s revised average.
  • August consumer credit outstanding increased at an annual rate of 5.6%. Revolving credits increased 5.3%, while non-revolving credits increased 5.7%.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 8th showed average fixed mortgage rates decreasing following a disappointing jobs report. 30-year fixed-mortgage average 3.76% for the week ending October 8th, down from last week when it averaged 3.85%. A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.19%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.99% for the week ending October 8th, down from 3.07%. A year ago at this time, 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.36%.
  • Mortgage applications increased 25.5% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 2nd.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey indicated that economic activity expanded in September for the 68th consecutive month.

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Key Economic Indicators – October 5, 2015

Friday, October 2nd, 2015
  • Total non-farm payroll employment increased 142 thousand in September, following an increase of 136 thousand in the previous month. Private-sector payrolls increased by 118 thousand in the month, while government employment increased by 24 thousand.
  • The number of unemployed persons decreased by 114 thousand to 7.915 million. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.1%. The unemployment rate was 5.9% in September of 2014.
  • The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased 0.1 to 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings decreased by a cent to $25.09, while average weekly earnings decreased by $2.85 to $865.61.  Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings and average weekly earnings were  up 2.2%.
  • The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 10 thousand to 277 thousand in the week ending September 26. The 4-week moving average was 270.75 thousand, a decrease of a thousand from the previous week’s average.
  • Personal income increased 0.3% in August, while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.4%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures (headline index) was up 0.3% from August 2014, while the core index was up 1.3%.
  • State personal income grew 0.9% on average in the second quarter, after growing 0.8% in the first quarter. Personal income grew in every state except Oklahoma in the second quarter.
  • New orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.7% in August, while shipments decreased 0.7%. Year-to-date, new orders were down 7.2% from the same period in 2014 , while shipments were down 4.0%
  • Construction spending in August was up 0.7% from the previous month, and was up 13.7% from August 2014.
  • The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector, decreased 1.4% in August, according to the National Association of Realtors. The index was up 6.1% from August 2014.
  • The S & P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index posted a year-over-year increase of 4.7%. The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes posted annual increases of 4.5% and 5.0%, respectively. As of July 2015, average home prices were back to their winter 2005 levels, and approximately 11-13% below their June/July 2006 peaks.
  • The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 1st showed average fixed mortgage rates were largely unchanged. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.85% for the week ending October 1st, down slightly from last week when it averaged 3.86%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.19%.
  • Mortgage applications decreased 6.7% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 25th.
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had increased in August, improved moderately in September.
  • The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the 33rd consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 76th consecutive month.

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