Current-Cast® Report

·      New orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.2% in October, while shipments increased 0.1%. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4%.  Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.8%. Year-to-date, new orders were up 4.9%, and shipments were up 3.7% from the same period a year ago.

·      Existing home sales increased 2.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million in October, from 5.37 million in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median existing home price in October was $247.0 thousand, up 5.5% from October 2016. Total housing inventory at the end of October decreased 3.2% from the previous month, and 10.4% from a year ago, to 1.8 million. Unsold inventory was at a 3.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.2 months in September.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropping slightly after last week’s jump. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.92% for the week ending November 22nd, down from last week when it averaged 3.95%.  A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.03%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.32% for the week ending November 22nd, up from last week when it averaged 3.31%.  A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.25%.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 239 thousand in the week ending November 18, a decrease of 13 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 239.75 thousand, an increase of 1.25 thousand from the previous week’s average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending November 11 was 1,904 thousand, an increase of 36 thousand from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 1,890 thousand, an increase of a thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      The Conference Board’s leading economic index surged 1.2% in October, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The coincident index increased 0.3%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Over the six-month span through October, the leading index increased 2.9% (about a 5.9% annual rate) with nine out of ten components advancing, while the coincident index increased 1.0% (about a 1.9% annual rate) with all four components advancing.

·      The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was 0.65 in October, up from 0.36 in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to 0.28 in October from 0.01 in September. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

·      The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 98.5 in November, from 100.7 in October. The Index was 93.8 in November of 2016. The Current Conditions Index decreased from 116.5 in October to 113.5 in November, while The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased from 90.5 to 88.9.

·      Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for October were up 0.2% from September, and were up 4.6% from October 2016, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding motor vehicle & parts, retail sales were up 0.1% from September, and were up 4.3% from a year ago. Year-to-date, retail sales were up 4.0% from the first 10 months of 2016.

·      Total manufacturing and trade sales for September were up 1.4% from August, while inventories were up less than 0.1%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.36, compared with 1.40 in September 2016.

·      Total Industrial production increased 0.9% in October, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Total industrial production in October was 2.9% above its level a year earlier. The rate of capacity utilization increased 0.4 percentage point to 77.0%, 2.9 percentage points below its 1972-2016 average.

·      The federal government budget ran a deficit of $63.2 billion in October, following a surplus of $8.0 billion in the previous month. The deficit was $45.8 billion in October 2016.

·      Housing starts in October were up 13.7% from the previous month, but were down 2.9% from October 2016. Building permits in October were up 5.9% from September, and were up 0.9% from a year ago.

·      The housing market index of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo increased 2 points to 70 in November. The Index was 67 in January 2017, and 63 in November of 2016.

·      The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed mortgage rates moving higher. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.57% for the week ending November 10th, up from last week when it averaged 3.54%.  A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.98%.

·      Mortgage applications increased 3.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 10th.

·      The consumer price index increased 0.1% in October, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. The core index increased 0.2%, following a 0.1% increase as in the previous month. The consumer price index increased 2.0% for the 12-month period ending in October, while the core index rose 1.8%.

·      The producer price index for total final demand increased 0.4% in October, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.2%. The producer price index for final demand increased 2.8% from October 2016 to October 2017.

·      The import price index increased 0.2% in October, while the export price index held steady. The import price index increased 2.5% from October 2016 to October 2017, while the price index for exports increased 2.7%.

·      The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 249 thousand in the week ending November 11, an increase of 10 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 237.75 thousand, an increase of 6.5 thousand from the previous week’s average.

·      Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1% from September to October. This result stems from no change in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1% increase in the consumer price index.

·      The November 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State. The headline index was 19.4 in November, compared with 30.2 in October.

·      The Philadelphia FED business outlook survey indicated that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand in November.  The headline index was 22.7 in November, compared with 27.9 in October.

• Sales of merchant wholesalers for September were up 1.3% from the previous month, and were up 8.5% a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Inventories increased 0.3% in September, following a 0.8% increase in the previous month. The inventories/sales ratio was 1.27 in September, compared with 1.32 a year ago.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 239 thousand in the week ending November 4, an increase of 10 thousand from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 231.25 thousand, a decrease of 1.25 thousand from the previous week’s average.
• The number of jobs openings was little changed at 6.1 million on the last business day of September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of hires and separations were also little changed at 5.3 million and 5.2 million, respectively.
• Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.6% in September. Revolving credit increased 7.7%, while non-revolving credit increased 6.3%.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moving higher. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.57% for the week ending November 10, up from last week when it averaged 3.54%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.98%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.88%, up from last week when it averaged 2.84%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.20%.
• Mortgage applications remained unchanged from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 6th.
• The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary, for November declined to 97.8, from the final reading of 100.7 in October. The Current Conditions Index decreased to 113.6, from 116.5, while the Index of Consumer Expectations decreased to 87.6, from 90.5.

• Total non-farm payroll employment increased 261 thousand in October, following an increase of 18 thousand in the previous month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector payrolls increased by 252 thousand in October, while government employment increased by 9 thousand. Employment in food services and drinking places increased sharply, mostly offsetting a decline in September that largely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. In October, job gains also occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care.
• The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% in October, from 4.2% in September. The unemployment rate was 4.8% in October 2016.
• The number of unemployed decreased by 281 thousand to 6.520 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 112 thousand to 1.621 million and accounted for 24.8% of the unemployed.
• The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 62.7% in October, but has shown little movement over the past 12 months.
• The average workweek of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
• In October, average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by a cent to $26.53. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings were up 2.4%.
• Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7%, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.5% for the 12-month period ending in September 2017. In September 2016, compensation costs increased 2.3%. Wages and salaries increased 2.5% for the 12-month period ending in September 2017, while benefit costs increased 2.4%.
• Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.0% during the third quarter of 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output increased 3.8% and hours worked increased 0.8%. From the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017, productivity increased 1.5%, reflecting a 2.9% increase in output and a 1.4% increase in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 0.5% in the third quarter of 2017, reflecting a 3.5% increase in hourly compensation and a 3.0% increase in productivity. Unit labor costs decreased 0.1% over the last four quarters.
• The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 5 thousand to 229 thousand in the week ending October 28. The 4-week moving average was 232.5 thousand, a decrease of 7.25 thousand from the previous week’s unrevised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 7, 1973 when it was 232.25 thousand. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending October 21 was 1,884 thousand, a decrease of 15 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 29, 1973 when it was 1,805 thousand. The 4-week moving average was 1,895.75 thousand, a decrease of 9.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 12, 1974 when it was 1,881 thousand.
• Unemployment rates were lower in September than a year earlier in 345 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 33 areas, and unchanged in 10 areas, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sixty-four areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0% and two areas had rates of at least 10.0%. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 309 metropolitan areas, decreased in 72 areas, and was unchanged in 7 areas.
• According to gross domestic product (GDP) by industry statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 17 of 22 industry groups contributed to the overall 3.1% increase in real GDP in the second quarter. Mining, professional, scientific, and technical services, and health care and social assistance were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the second quarter of 2017.
• Personal income increased 0.4% in September according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income increased 0.4% and personal consumption expenditures increased 1.0%. Real disposable personal income decreased less than 0.1% in September, while real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.6%. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.4%, while the core index (excluding food and energy) increased 0.1%. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.6% from September 2016, while the core index increased 1.3%.
• Sales of domestic cars decreased 4.5% in October, while total light vehicle (cars and light trucks) sales decreased 2.6%. Total vehicle sales were 18.0 million units in October, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared to 17.3 million in January 2017, and 17.8 million in October of 2016.
• New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.4% in September, while shipments increased 0.8%. Year-to-date, new orders were up 5.6%, while shipments were up 4.7%.
• The international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $43.5 billion in September from $42.8 billion in August (revised), as exports increased to $196.8 billion and imports increased to $240.3 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
• September construction spending was up 0.3% from the previous month, and was up 2.0% from a year ago. Residential construction increased less than 0.1%, while nonresidential construction increased 0.5%. Total private construction decreased 0.4% in September, while total public construction increased 2.6%.
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.1% annual gain in August, up from 5.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.3%, up from 5.2% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.9% year-over-year gain, up from 5.8% the previous month.
• The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates held relatively flat for the week ending November 2nd. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.94% for the week ending November 2, unchanged from last week. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 3.27%, up slightly from the previous week when it averaged 3.25%.
• Mortgage applications decreased 2.6% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 27, 2017.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved marginally in September, increased again in October. The Index now stands at 125.9 (1985=100), up from 120.6 in September. The Present Situation Index increased from 146.9 to 151.1, while the Expectations Index rose from 103.0 to 109.1.
• The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey indicated that the manufacturing sector expanded in October, and the overall economy grew for the 101st consecutive month.
• The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey indicated that economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October, for the 94th consecutive month.