Archive for August, 2020
Sunday, August 30th, 2020
- Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 31.7% in the second quarter of 2020, according to the “second” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0%. In the advance estimate, released a month ago, the decrease in real GDP was 32.9% for the second quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) decreased 28.5% in the second quarter, following a decrease of 3.6% in the first quarter.
- Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 33.1% in the second quarter of 2020, following a decrease of 2.5% in the first quarter.
- The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, decreased 32.4% in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 3.7% in the previous quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.5% in the second quarter of 2020, compared with an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter.
- The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index decreased 1.8% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index decreased 1.0% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.6% in the previous quarter.
- Corporate profits from current production decreased $226.9 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $276.2 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $39.5 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $42.2 billion in the previous quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $170.1 billion, compared with a decrease of $190.5 billion in the previous quarter. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $96.2 billion, compared with a decrease of $43.5 billion in the previous quarter.
- Personal income increased 0.4% in July, and personal consumption expenditures increased 1.9%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% in July, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. The core index also increased 0.3% in July. The headline index was up 1.0%, and the core index was up 1.3% from July 2019.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 98 thousand to 1,006 thousand in the week ending August 22. The 4-week moving average was 1,068 thousand, a decrease of 107.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending August 15 was 14,535 thousand, a decrease of 223 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 15,215.75 thousand, a decrease of 604 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 9.9% for the week ending August 15, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. It was stated that: “Beginning with the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims News Release issued Thursday, September 3, 2020, the methodology used to seasonally adjust the national initial claims and continued claims will reflect additive factors as opposed to multiplicative factors.”
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that average fixed mortgage rates were falling. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.91% for the week ending August 27, down from last week when it averaged 2.99%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.58%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.46%, down from the previous week when it averaged 2.54%. A year ago, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.06%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 6.5% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 26th.
- The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 74.1 in August, from 72.5 in July. The Index was 89.8 a year ago. The Current Conditions Index inched up from 82.8 in July to 82.9 in August, while the Index of Consumer Expectations increased to 68.5 in August, from 65.9 in July.
- There were 24,996,456 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 842,499 deaths, and 16,409,757 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 8/30/2020, 1:30 EST). In the United States, there are 5,961,094 confirmed cases, 182,761 deaths, and 2,140,614 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
Saturday, August 22nd, 2020
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 135 thousand to 1,106 thousand in the week ending August 15. The 4-week moving average was 1,175.75 thousand, a decrease of 79 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending August 8 was 14,844 thousand, a decrease of 636 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 15,841.25 thousand, a decrease of 326.75 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 10.2% for the week ending August 8, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
- Unemployment rates were lower in July in 30 states, higher in 9 states, and stable in 11 states and the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All 50 states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 40 states and the District of Columbia, decreased in 1 state, and was essentially unchanged in 9 states in July 2020. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 49 states and the District and was essentially unchanged in 1 state.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey of August 20th showed average fixed mortgage rates inched up. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.99% for the week ending August 20, up from last week when it averaged 2.96%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.55%. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.54%, up from last week when it averaged 2.46%. %. A year ago, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.03%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 3.3% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 14th.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
Saturday, August 15th, 2020
- Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for July were up 1.2% from the previous month and were up 2.7% from July 2019. Year-to-date, retail sales were down 2.1% from the same period a year ago.
- Total manufacturing and trade sales for June were up 8.4% from the previous month, and inventories were down 1.1%. The total business inventories/sales ratio at the end of June was 1.37, compared with 1.39 in June 2019.
- Total Industrial production increased 3.0% in July, following a 5.7% increase in the previous month. The index of industrial production in July was 8.2% below its year-ago level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry was 70.6%, 9.2 percentage points below its 1972-2019 average, and 6.8 percentage points below its level in July 2019.
- The import price index increased 0.7% in July, following a 1.4% increase in the previous month. The export price index increased 0.8%, following a 1.2% increase in the previous month. The import price index decreased 3.3% from July 2019, while export prices decreased 4.4%.
- The producer price index for final demand (headline index) increased 0.6% in July, following a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade increased 0.3%, the same increase as in the previous month. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.4% for the 12 months ended in July. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade decreased 0.1% during the same period.
- The consumer price index increased 0.6% in July, the same increase as in the previous month. The core index increased 0.6%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The consumer price index (headline index) increased 1.0% for the 12-month period ending in July, and the core index rose 1.6%.
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4% from June to July. This result stems from a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings being more than offset by a 0.6% increase in the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
- Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 7.3% in the second quarter of 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as output decreased 38.9% and hours worked decreased 43.0%. From the second quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020, productivity increased 2.2%, reflecting an 11.8% decrease in output and a 13.7% decrease in hours worked. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 12.2% in the second quarter of 2020 and increased 5.7% over a year ago.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 228 thousand to 963 thousand in the week ending August 8. The 4-week moving average was 1,252.75 thousand, a decrease of 86.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending August 1 was 15,486 thousand, a decrease of 604 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 16,169.5 thousand, a decrease of 454.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 10.6% for the week ending August 1, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates moved up. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.96% for the week ending August 13, up from last week when it averaged 2.88%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.60%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.46%, up from last week when it averaged 2.44%. year ago, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.07%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 5.1% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 31st.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
Saturday, August 8th, 2020
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 249 thousand to 1,186 thousand in the week ending August 1. The 4-week moving average was 1,337.75 thousand, a decrease of 31 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 25 was 16,107 thousand, a decrease of 844 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 16,628.25 thousand, a decrease of 413.25 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.0% for the week ending July 25, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average fixed mortgage rates dropped, hitting a record low for the eight time this year. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.88% for the week ending August 6, down from last week when it averaged 2.99%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.60%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.44%, down from last week when it averaged 2.51%. A year ago, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 3.05%.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »
Sunday, August 2nd, 2020
- Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 32.9% in the second quarter of 2020, according to the “advance” estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0%. The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in personal consumption expenditures, exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by an increase in federal government spending.
- Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less change in private inventories) decreased 29.3% in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 3.6% in the first quarter.
- The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.5% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter.
- The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index decreased 1.9%, compared with an increase of 1.3% in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index decreased 1.1%, compared with an increase of 1.6%.
- Current-dollar GDP decreased 34.3%, or $2.15 trillion, in the second quarter to a level of $19.41 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP decreased 3.4%, or $186.3 billion.
- It was noted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis: “The decline in second quarter GDP reflected the response to COVID-19, as “stay-at-home” orders issued in March and April were partially lifted in some areas of the country in May and June, and government pandemic assistance payments were distributed to households and businesses. This led to rapid shifts in activity, as businesses and schools continued remote work and consumers and businesses canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.
- Personal income decreased $222.8 billion (1.1%) in June according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $255.3 billion (1.4%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $737.7 billion (5.6%). Real DPI decreased 1.8% in June and real PCE increased 5.2%.
- The PCE price index for June increased 0.4% from the previous month and increased 0.8% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2% from the previous month and increased 0.9% from June of 2019.
- The advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 12 thousand to 1,434 thousand in the week ending July 25. The 4-week moving average was 1,368.5 thousand, an increase of 6.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (ongoing) during the week ending July 18 was 17,018 thousand, an increase of 867 thousand from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 17,058.25 thousand, a decrease of 435.5 thousand from the previous week’s revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.6% for the week ending July 18, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. It was stated that: “The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.”
- Unemployment rates were higher in June than a year earlier in 388 of the 389 metropolitan areas and lower in 1 area, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A total of 218 areas had jobless rates of less than 10.0% and 6 areas had rates of at least 20.0%. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased over the year in 307 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 82 areas. The national unemployment rate in June was 11.2%, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.8% a year earlier.
- Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5%, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages and salaries increased 0.4% and benefit costs increased 0.8% from March 2020. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.7% for the 12-month period ending in June 2020, the same increase a year ago.
- From September 2019 to December 2019, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 7.8 million, an increase of 490 thousand jobs from the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 7.0 million, a decrease of 291 thousand jobs from the previous quarter. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses yielded a net employment gain of 792 thousand jobs in the private sector during the fourth quarter of 2019.
- Labor productivity rose 0.4% in wholesale trade, 5.3% in retail trade in 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unit labor costs, which reflect the total labor costs required to produce a unit of output, rose in wholesale trade and decreased in retail trade.
- The results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that mortgage rates decreasing slightly. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.99% for the week ending July 30, down slightly from last week when it averaged 3.01%. A year-ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate averaged 3.75%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 2.51%, down from last week when it averaged 2.54%. A year-ago at this time, the 15-year fixed-rate averaged 3.20%.
- Mortgage applications decreased 0.8% from a week earlier, according to data from Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 24, 2020.
- There were 17,859,763 COVID-19 confirmed cases in the world, 685,179 deaths, and 10,564,263 recovered, according to Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center (access date and time: 8/2/2020, 10:00 EST). In the United States, there are 4,620,502 confirmed cases, 154,449 deaths, and 1,461,885 recovered cases. The world is struggling to control the spread of the virus.
Posted in Key Economic Indicators | No Comments »